Assessing human habitability and migration

Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 372(6548), P. 1279 - 1283

Published: June 17, 2021

Integrate global top-down and local bottom-up analyses

Language: Английский

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Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2022

Abstract The risk of heatwave events and their persistence has intensified in recent past is expected to increase faster future. However, the anticipated changes socioeconomic exposure heatwaves are still unexplored. Here, we investigate projected heat stress associated across South Asia (SA) its subregions using newly released ensemble mean 23 global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections. We used two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5, three‐time periods, that is, near‐term, midterm, long‐term relative base period (1985–2005). found SA region potential for widespread Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 6.5°C, which can exceed theoretical limits human tolerance by mid 21st century. population's significantly increases during midterm periods ∼ person‐hours under SSP5‐8.5 scenario. GDP greatest same period's up dollar‐hours SSP2‐4.5. Moreover, foothills Himalayans northern parts Pakistan presently unaffected WBGT both scenarios. Among (hereafter R1, R2, R3, R4), frequency subdaily R2 R4 ∼70% ∼90% scenarios period. highest upsurge including southern southwestern India, followed R1 R3. Notably, effect more dominant than whereas contribute total change exposure.

Language: Английский

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Recent Increases in Exposure to Extreme Humid‐Heat Events Disproportionately Affect Populated Regions

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 48(19)

Published: Sept. 18, 2021

Abstract Extreme heat research has largely focused on dry‐heat, while humid‐heat that poses a substantial threat to human‐health remains relatively understudied. Using hourly high‐resolution ERA5 reanalysis and HadISD station data, we provide the first spatially comprehensive, global‐scale characterization of magnitude, seasonal timing, frequency dry‐ wet‐bulb temperature extremes their trends. While peak extreme occurrences often coincide, timing differs in climatologically wet regions. Since 1979, have become more frequent over most land regions, with greatest increases tropics Arctic. Humid‐heat increased disproportionately populated regions (∼5.0 days per‐person per‐decade) relative global land‐areas (∼3.6 per‐unit‐land‐area population exposure at faster rate than dry‐heat. Our study highlights need for multivariate approach understand mitigate future harm from stress warming world.

Language: Английский

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Severe climate change risks to food security and nutrition

Climate Risk Management, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 39, P. 100473 - 100473

Published: Dec. 30, 2022

This paper discusses severe risks to food security and nutrition that are linked ongoing projected climate change, particularly weather extremes in global warming, drought, flooding, precipitation. We specifically consider the impacts on populations vulnerable insecurity malnutrition due lower income, access nutritious food, or social discrimination. The defines climate-related "severe risk" context of nutrition, using a combination criteria, including magnitude likelihood adverse consequences, timing risk ability reduce risk. Severe change those which result, with high likelihood, pervasive persistent for millions people, have potential cascading effects beyond systems, against we limited prevent fully respond. uses internationally agreed definitions describe consequences. Moreover, assesses conditions under change-induced could become based findings literature different scenarios shared socioeconomic pathways. Finally, proposes adaptation options, institutional management governance actions, be taken now future human nutrition.

Language: Английский

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Status of Food Security in East and Southeast Asia and Challenges of Climate Change

Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(3), P. 40 - 40

Published: March 14, 2022

This review briefly summarizes the situation regarding food security in East and Southeast Asia. In accordance with World Food Summit definition 2009 Declaration of on Security, four pillars security—food availability, access to food, stability supplies, utilization—are closely scrutinized along characteristics at sub-regional level. Historical trends for agricultural economy trade, such as imports exports, production consumption, price index sub-region, are presented statistically analysed. Additionally, because industry this region is vulnerable climate change, issues about how change affects systems, livelihoods, nutrition, policy making, which can be linked different ways, also discussed.

Language: Английский

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Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk

Nature, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 627(8005), P. 797 - 804

Published: March 13, 2024

Abstract Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves 1,2 , raising concerns about future impacts climate change associated socioeconomic costs 3,4 . Here we develop disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological hybrid input–output computable general equilibrium trade models to estimate midcentury heat stress. We consider health related exposure, value heat-induced labour productivity loss indirect losses due economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. show that annual incremental gross domestic product increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)–0.05 585) percentage points during 2030–2040 0.05 0.01–0.15 0.04 2050–2060. By 2060, expected reach total 0.6–4.6% with attributed (37–45%), (18–37%) (12–43%) under different shared pathways. Small- medium-sized developing countries suffer disproportionately higher South-Central Africa (2.1 4.0 times above average) West Southeast Asia (2.0–3.3 average). The supply-chain disruption effects are much more widespread strong hit those manufacturing-heavy such as China USA, leading soaring 2.7 0.7% 1.8 0.5%, respectively.

Language: Английский

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Plant responses to climate change, how global warming may impact on food security: a critical review

Frontiers in Plant Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14

Published: Jan. 5, 2024

Global agricultural production must double by 2050 to meet the demands of an increasing world human population but this challenge is further exacerbated climate change. Environmental stress, heat, and drought are key drivers in food security strongly impacts on crop productivity. Moreover, global warming threatening survival many species including those which we rely for production, forcing migration cultivation areas with impoverishing environment genetic variability fall out effects security. This review considers relationship climatic changes their bearing sustainability natural ecosystems, as well role omics-technologies, genomics, proteomics, metabolomics, phenomics ionomics. The use resource saving technologies such precision agriculture new fertilization discussed a focus breeding plants higher tolerance adaptability mitigation tools changes. Nevertheless, exposed multiple stresses. study lays basis proposition novel research paradigm referred holistic approach that went beyond exclusive concept yield, included sustainability, socio-economic commercialization, agroecosystem management.

Language: Английский

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Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: March 21, 2024

Abstract Climate impacts on economic productivity indicate that climate change may threaten price stability. Here we apply fixed-effects regressions to over 27,000 observations of monthly consumer indices worldwide quantify the conditions inflation. Higher temperatures increase food and headline inflation persistently 12 months in both higher- lower-income countries. Effects vary across seasons regions depending climatic norms, with further from daily temperature variability extreme precipitation. Evaluating these results under increases projected for 2035 implies upwards pressures 0.92-3.23 0.32-1.18 percentage-points per-year respectively average globally (uncertainty range emission scenarios, models empirical specifications). Pressures are largest at low latitudes show strong seasonality high latitudes, peaking summer. Finally, 2022 summer heat increased Europe by 0.43-0.93 which warming would amplify 30-50%.

Language: Английский

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Labour market evolution is a key determinant of global agroeconomic and environmental futures

Nature Food, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 2, 2025

Language: Английский

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Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract To achieve the 1.5°C target of Paris agreement, rapid, sustained, and deep emission reductions are required, which often includes negative emissions through land‐based mitigation. However, effects future land‐use change on climate not considered when quantifying climate‐induced impacts human heat stress labor capacity. By conducting simulations with three fully coupled Earth System Models, we project outdoor capacity for two contrasting scenarios under high‐ambition Achieving a sustainable scenario increasing global forest cover instead an inequality decreasing in Global South causes cooling ranging between 0.09°C 0.35°C across Models. less strong, especially over regions intense such as tropics, where biogeophysical near‐surface specific humidity wind speed counteract effect warm extremes. The corresponding influence is small inconsistent These results clearly highlight importance achieving temperature targets while questioning adaptation potential reduction stress.

Language: Английский

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