Bio‐ORACLE v3.0. Pushing marine data layers to the CMIP6 Earth System Models of climate change research

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 33(4)

Published: Feb. 25, 2024

Abstract Motivation Impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity are often projected with species distribution modelling using standardized data layers representing physical, chemical and biological conditions the global ocean. Yet, available (1) have not been updated to incorporate Sixth Phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), which comprise Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios; (2) consider a limited number Earth System Models (ESMs), (3) miss important variables expected influence future distributions. These limitations might undermine impact assessments, by failing integrate them within context most up‐to‐date projections, raising uncertainty in estimates misinterpreting exposure extreme conditions. Here, we provide significant update Bio‐ORACLE, extending biologically relevant from present‐day end 21st century scenarios based multi‐model ensemble CMIP6. Alongside, R Python packages for seamless integration workflows. The aim enhance understanding potential impacts support well‐informed research, conservation management. Main Types Variable Contained Surface benthic for, chlorophyll‐ , diffuse attenuation coefficient, dissolved iron, oxygen, nitrate, ocean temperature, pH, phosphate, photosynthetic active radiation, total phytoplankton, cloud fraction, salinity, silicate, sea‐water direction, velocity, topographic slope, aspect, terrain ruggedness index, position index bathymetry, surface air mixed layer depth, sea‐ice cover thickness. Spatial Location Grain Global at 0.05° resolution. Time Period Decadal (2000–2100). Major Taxa Level Measurement Marine associated epibenthic habitats. Software Format A package functions developed software.

Language: Английский

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Impacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century

Geoscience Frontiers, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 101774 - 101774

Published: Dec. 22, 2023

The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for 21st century is both alarming ambiguous. According to computer projections, global surface may warm from 1.3 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100, depending on model (GCM) shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario used simulations. However a substantial number CMIP6 GCMs run "too hot" because they appear be too sensitive radiative forcing, that high/extreme emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5 must rejected judged "unlikely" "highly unlikely", respectively. This paper examines "realistic" change projections generated assessing theoretical models integrating them existing empirical knowledge warming various natural cycles have been recorded variety scientists historians. achieved combining SSP2-4.5 empirically optimized modeling. obtained show expected will likely mild, is, no more than 2.5-3.0 and, average, below 2.0 threshold. should allow mitigation management most dangerous climate-change-related hazards through appropriate low-cost adaptation policies. In conclusion, enforcing expensive decarbonization net-zero scenarios, such as SSP1-2.6, not required Paris Agreement temperature target keeping 2 throughout compatible also moderate pragmatic pathways SSP2-4.5.

Language: Английский

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Widespread habitat loss and redistribution of marine top predators in a changing ocean

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(32)

Published: Aug. 9, 2023

The Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are among the fastest warming ocean regions, a trend that is expected to continue through this century with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems. We examine distribution 12 highly migratory top predator species using predictive models project habitat changes downscaled climate models. Our predict widespread losses suitable most species, concurrent substantial northward displacement core habitats >500 km. These include up >70% loss area some commercially ecologically important species. also identify predicted hot spots multi-species focused offshore U.S. Southeast Mid-Atlantic coasts. For several already underway, which likely have impacts on efficacy static regulatory frameworks used manage ongoing projected effects change highlight urgent need adaptively proactively dynamic

Language: Английский

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Integrating climate adaptation and transboundary management: Guidelines for designing climate-smart marine protected areas

One Earth, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 1523 - 1541

Published: Oct. 26, 2023

Climate change poses an urgent threat to biodiversity that demands societal responses. The magnitude of this challenge is reflected in recent international commitments protect 30% the planet by 2030 while adapting climate change. However, because global, interventions must transcend political boundaries. Here, using California Bight as a case study, we provide 21 biophysical guidelines for designing climate-smart transboundary marine protected area (MPA) networks and conduct analyses inform their application. We found future climates heatwaves could decrease ecological connectivity 50% hinder recovery vulnerable species MPAs. To buffer impacts change, MPA coverage should be expanded, focusing on protecting critical nodes network refugia, where might less severe. For shared ecoregions, these actions require coordination. Our work provides first comprehensive framework integrating resilience MPAs which will support other nations' aspirations.

Language: Английский

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Current approaches and future opportunities for climate-smart protected areas

Published: April 7, 2025

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the ecological consequences of climate change in coastal ecosystems

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Few coastal ecosystems remain untouched by direct human activities, and none are unimpacted anthropogenic climate change. These drivers interact with exacerbate each other in complex ways, yielding a mosaic of ecological consequences that range from adaptive responses, such as geographic shifts changes phenology, to severe impacts, mass mortalities, regime loss biodiversity. Identifying the role change these phenomena requires corroborating evidence multiple lines evidence, including laboratory experiments, field observations, numerical models palaeorecords. Yet few studies can confidently quantify magnitude effect attributable solely change, because seldom acts alone ecosystems. Projections future risk further complicated scenario uncertainty – is, our lack knowledge about degree which humanity will mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions, or make ways we impact Irrespective, ocean warming would be impossible reverse before end century, sea levels likely continue rise for centuries elevated millennia. Therefore, risks projected mirror impacts already observed, severity escalating cumulative emissions. Promising avenues progress beyond qualitative assessments include collaborative modelling initiatives, model intercomparison projects, use broader systems. But reduce rapidly reducing emissions greenhouse gases, restoring damaged habitats, regulating non-climate stressors using climate-smart conservation actions, implementing inclusive coastal-zone management approaches, especially those involving nature-based solutions.

Language: Английский

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Stay or go? Geographic variation in risks due to climate change for fishing fleets that adapt in-place or adapt on-the-move

PLOS Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(2), P. e0000285 - e0000285

Published: Feb. 9, 2024

From fishers to farmers, people across the planet who rely directly upon natural resources for their livelihoods and well-being face extensive impacts from climate change. However, local- regional-scale associated risks can vary geographically, implications development of adaptation pathways that will be most effective specific communities are underexplored. To improve this understanding at relevant local scales, we developed a coupled social-ecological approach assess risk posed fishing fleets by change, applying it case study groundfish cornerstone fisheries along U.S. West Coast. Based on mean three high-resolution projections, found more poleward may experience twice as much temperature change equatorward fleets, 3–4 times depth displacement historical environmental conditions in grounds. Not only they highly exposed but some >10x economically-dependent groundfish. While show clear regional differences fleets’ flexibility shift new via diversification (‘adapt in-place’) or grounds response future through greater mobility on-the-move’), these do not completely mitigate exposure economic dependence fleets. Therefore, Coast overall due contrast expectations other parts world. Through integration climatic, ecological, socio-economic data, illustrates potential widespread implementation assessment scales fishers, communities, decision makers. Such applications help identify greatest opportunities enhance dimensions adaptive capacity.

Language: Английский

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Divergent responses of highly migratory species to climate change in the California Current

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 30(2)

Published: Dec. 8, 2023

Abstract Aim Marine biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from anthropogenic climate change. Ecosystem responses to change have exhibited substantial variability in the direction and magnitude of redistribution, posing challenges for developing effective climate‐adaptive marine management strategies. Location The California Current (CCE), USA. Methods We project suitable habitat 10 highly migratory species System using an ensemble three high‐resolution (~10 km) downscaled ocean projections under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Spanning period 1980 2100, our analysis focuses on assessing distance distributional shifts, as well changes core area each species. Results Our findings reveal a divergent response among impacts. Specifically, four were projected undergo significant poleward shifts exceeding 100 km, gain (~7%–60%) Conversely, six shift towards coast, resulting loss ranging 10% 66% by end century. These could typically be characterized mode thermoregulation (i.e. ectotherm vs. endotherm) species' affiliations with cool productive upwelled waters that are characteristic region. Furthermore, study highlights increase niche overlap between protected those targeted fisheries, which may lead increased human interaction events Main Conclusions By providing valuable distribution projections, research contributes understanding effects offers critical insight support climate‐ready fished

Language: Английский

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Interactive effects of predation and climate on the distributions of marine shellfish in the Northwest Atlantic

Oikos, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2024(9)

Published: May 17, 2024

As climate change transforms marine environments globally, species distributions correspondingly shift to locations where conditions have become or remain favourable. The ability model these distributional shifts has been facilitated by distribution models (SDMs). However, current SDM approaches largely ignored climate‐driven changes in interactions, which ultimately can an important influence on distributions. In this study, we utilize a long‐term, large‐scale dataset spanning 48 years and approximately 30 degrees latitude across the Canadian Atlantic shelf. We examine how influences predation patterns of two invertebrates, northern shrimp Pandalus borealis snow crab Chionoecetes opilio , aiming evaluate impacts prey found that both invertebrate pronounced predicted response change, with overall reduction abundance associated warming temperatures. Including predatory interactions as predictors SDMs (either directly via predator densities estimated rates) improved prediction accuracy for but not crab. This is consistent ecology species, more vulnerable than projections future are sensitive spatial predators, highlighting inherent complexity predicting change. Collectively, results contribute broader literature seeks improve capabilities predict effects under changing ecological conditions.

Language: Английский

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Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

Abstract Emerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly‐warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial high seas provides a 16‐year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge gaps, characterizing areas of highest uncertainty is key first step. Marine ecosystem model ensembles that project future fish distributions could inform fisheries, but Arctic‐specific variation has not yet been examined global ensembles. We use Fisheries Ecosystem Intercomparison Project ensemble driven by two Earth System Models (ESMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 SSP5‐8.5) illustrate current state among biomass projections over duration moratorium. The models generally increases more northern ecosystems decreases southern ecosystems, wide intra‐model exceeds projection means most cases. ESMs show opposite trends main environmental drivers. Therefore, these are currently insufficient policy actions. Investment sustained monitoring improving modeling capacity, especially sea dynamics, urgently needed. Concurrently, it will be necessary develop frameworks making precautionary decisions continued uncertainty. conclude researchers should transparent about uncertainty, presenting as source “answers,” bounding plausible, policy‐relevant questions assess trade‐offs mitigate risks.

Language: Английский

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