The synergy between drought and extremely hot summers in the Mediterranean

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 14(1), P. 014011 - 014011

Published: Nov. 13, 2018

In the last years a large number of weather driven extreme events has occurred worldwide with unprecedented socio-economic impacts and are expected to increase, in both frequency intensity, under future global-warming conditions. this context early identification predictability such paramount as they mostly affect several activities. Despite effort monitoring evaluation these events, quantitative assessment their interaction is still challenge. We propose analyze if occurrence extremely hot days/nights summer preceded by drought spring throughout Mediterranean area. This was investigated correlating days nights regions hottest months indicator on prior months. Drought characterization performed using Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) (SPI) for 3-, 6- 9-months time scales, considering period 1980–2014 spatial resolution 0.5°. The per month (NHD NHN, respectively) determined same resolution. Results show that most frequent region occur July August. Most exhibit statistically significant negative correlations, i.e. high (low) NHD/NHN following (positive) SPEI/SPI values, thus potential warning. analysis allowed identify Iberian Peninsula, northern Italy, Africa Balkans main hotspots temperatures or summer.

Language: Английский

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Verification of Heat Stress Thresholds for a Health-Based Heat-Wave Definition

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 58(6), P. 1177 - 1194

Published: March 29, 2019

Abstract Heat waves represent a threat to human health and excess mortality is one of the associated negative effects. A health-based definition for heat therefore relevant, especially early warning purposes, it here investigated via universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The UTCI bioclimate elaborated an advanced model thermoregulation that estimates stress induced by air temperature, wind speed, moisture, radiation on physiology. Using France as test bed, was computed from meteorological reanalysis data assess conditions with heat-attributable in five cities. values at different climatological percentiles were defined evaluated their ability identify periods (PEMs) over 24 years. verification metrics such probability detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (FB), daily minimum maximum levels equal or above corresponding 95th (15° ± 2°C 34.5° 1.5°C, respectively) 3 consecutive days are demonstrated correlate PEMs highest sensitivity specificity (0.69 ≤ POD 1, 0.19 FAR 0.46, 1 FB 1.48) than minimum, maximum, mean level singularly other bioclimatological percentiles. This finding confirms detrimental effect prolonged, unusually high day- nighttime suggests percentile health-meaningful threshold potential heat-health watch system.

Language: Английский

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Effects of Hot Nights on Mortality in Southern Europe

Epidemiology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 32(4), P. 487 - 498

Published: April 2, 2021

Background: There is strong evidence concerning the impact of heat stress on mortality, particularly from high temperatures. However, few studies to our knowledge emphasize importance hot nights, which may prevent necessary nocturnal rest. Objectives: In this study, we use hot-night duration and excess predict daily cause-specific mortality in summer, using multiple cities across Southern Europe. Methods: We fitted time series regression models summer including natural, respiratory, cardiovascular causes, 11 four countries. included a distributed lag nonlinear model with lags up 7 days for night adjusted by mean temperature. summarized city-specific associations as overall-cumulative exposure–response curves at country level meta-analysis. Results: found positive but generally between relative risk (RR) nights. RR associated nonaccidental Portugal was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07, 1.54); other were imprecise, also estimates Rome Madrid. Risk ranged 1.12 CI 1.05, 1.20) France 1.37 1.26, 1.48) Portugal. consistently higher than duration. Conclusions: This study provides new that, over wider range locations, indices are strongly deaths. Modeling thermal characteristics during nights could improve decisionmaking preventive public health strategies.

Language: Английский

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Emerging climate change-related public health challenges in Africa: A case study of the heat-health vulnerability of informal settlement residents in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 747, P. 141355 - 141355

Published: July 29, 2020

Language: Английский

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The impact of extremely hot weather events on all-cause mortality in a highly urbanized and densely populated subtropical city: A 10-year time-series study (2006–2015)

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 690, P. 923 - 931

Published: July 4, 2019

Language: Английский

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Greenspace, bluespace, and their interactive influence on urban thermal environments

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. 034041 - 034041

Published: Jan. 15, 2020

Abstract Urban land use cover (LULC) change raises ambient temperature and modifies atmospheric moisture, which increases heat-related health risks in cities. Greenspace bluespace commonly coexist urban landscapes are nature-based heat mitigation strategies. Yet, their interactive effects on thermal environments rarely assessed it remains unclear how extreme events (EHEs) affect ability to regulate human comfort. Using multi-year observations from a dense observational network Madison, WI, we found that green blue spaces jointly modify the intraurban spatiotemporal variability of humidity, resultant comfort show diurnal seasonal asymmetry. is more effective at cooling throughout year, particularly night. Accelerated efficiency areas with dominant greenspace coverage little co-influence bluespace. The benefit due greenspaces can be offset by bluespaces because intensified nighttime warming humidifying during warm months, although weak daytime observed. EHEs enhance cooling, but overall joint regulation same enhanced moisture effect. Our findings suggest diverse outcomes cross multiple temporal scales should holistically planning. analysis framework based generalized additive models robust transferable other cities applications disentangle nonlinear co-influences different drivers environmental phenomena.

Language: Английский

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Exploring the relationship between the 2D/3D architectural morphology and urban land surface temperature based on a boosted regression tree: A case study of Beijing, China

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 78, P. 103392 - 103392

Published: Dec. 28, 2021

Language: Английский

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Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 8(4)

Published: March 23, 2020

Abstract We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on analyses of observations, we find that U.S. has already experienced a rise occurrence aggregated recent decades, consistent with response increases radiative forcing. Additionally, can be expected intensify under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, all counties permanently exceeding baseline variability extreme hot days, warm nights, drought conditions 2050. As result, every county is exceed CEI (as one standard deviation during 1981–2005 period). current distribution, this unprecedented change implies yearly three people. increasing trend detectable over much U.S., particularly central eastern The high correspondence between pattern our simulations observations confidence amplification combinations conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue escalate along their trajectory.

Language: Английский

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Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 55(3-4), P. 429 - 447

Published: May 27, 2020

Abstract We evaluate how hotspots of different types extreme summertime heat change under global warming increase up to $$4\,^\circ \hbox {C}$$ 4 ∘ C ; and which level allows us avert the risk these considering irreducible range possibilities defined by well-sampled internal variability. use large samples low-probability extremes simulated 100-member Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) for five metrics heat: maximum absolute temperatures, return periods temperature variability, sustained tropical nights, wet bulb temperatures. At $$2\,^\circ 2 warming, MPI-GE projects summer temperatures below $$50\,^\circ 50 over most world. Beyond , this threshold is overshot in all continents, with projected Arabic Peninsula. Extreme 1-in-100-years pre-industrial occur every 10–25 years already at $$1.5\,^\circ 1.5 warming. are 1 2 The variability increases 10–50% 50–100% . stress aggravated substantially non-adapted areas hot humid conditions that rarely a climate; while night become common-pace spread polewards globally, during more than 99% months tropics; whilst monthly mean beyond $$26\,^\circ 26 both as well mid-latitude regions.

Language: Английский

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Growing Threats From Unprecedented Sequential Flood‐Hot Extremes Across China

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 48(18)

Published: Sept. 8, 2021

Abstract When multiple extremes occur in rapid sequence, their impacts cascade to cause disproportionate damages. However, the prevalence of univariate definitions and inability identify low‐likelihood events short observations/simulations leave knowledge on sequential sparse. Leveraging two initial‐condition large ensembles, we project future changes historically unprecedented flood‐hot China. Results show that despite dozens 1 50‐year floods hot more than 2,000 years historical simulations, sequenced occurrence within a week has no precedent. This out‐of‐ordinary configuration is projected be increasingly possible across China, with earlier emergence larger frequency increases expected Southwest Southeast The direction, spatial extent, magnitude cannot explained by internal variability alone, though it potential modulate human‐caused timing magnitude.

Language: Английский

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