Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Oct. 4, 2021

Abstract Extreme heat undermines the working capacity of individuals, resulting in lower productivity, and thus economic output. Here we analyse present future damages due to reduced labour productivity caused by extreme Europe. For analysis current impacts, focused on heatwaves occurring four recent anomalously hot years (2003, 2010, 2015, 2018) compared our findings historical period 1981–2010. In selected years, total estimated attributed amounted 0.3–0.5% European gross domestic product (GDP). However, identified losses were largely heterogeneous across space, consistently showing GDP impacts beyond 1% more vulnerable regions. Future projections indicate that 2060 might increase Europe a factor almost five 1981–2010 if no further mitigation or adaptation actions are taken, suggesting presence pronounced effects regions where these already acute.

Language: Английский

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The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(9)

Published: Feb. 22, 2021

Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean’s environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification monitoring such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing emerging research effort. Prevention negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced points traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative natural variations) dramatic impact. High-probability high-impact ocean due warming, acidification, deoxygenation more fragmented both regionally time but add up global dimensions. These combination gradual need addressed as seriously order prevent cumulative often compounding societal Earth system impacts.

Language: Английский

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Green spaces provide substantial but unequal urban cooling globally

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Sept. 2, 2024

Climate warming disproportionately impacts countries in the Global South by increasing extreme heat exposure. However, geographic disparities adaptation capacity are unclear. Here, we assess global inequality green spaces, which urban residents critically rely on to mitigate outdoor stress. We use remote sensing data quantify daytime cooling greenery warm seasons across ~500 largest cities globally. show a striking contrast, with having ~70% of North (2.5 ± 1.0 °C vs. 3.6 1.7 °C). A similar gap occurs for benefits received an average resident these (2.2 0.9 3.4 This is due discrepancies space quantity and quality between South, shaped socioeconomic natural factors. Our analyses further suggest vast potential enhancing while reducing inequality.

Language: Английский

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Mortality impacts of the most extreme heat events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 4, 2025

Language: Английский

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Changes in precipitation variability across time scales in multiple global climate model large ensembles

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(8), P. 084022 - 084022

Published: July 2, 2021

Abstract Anthropogenic changes in the variability of precipitation stand to impact both natural and human systems profound ways. Precipitation encompasses not only extremes like droughts floods, but also spectrum which populates times between these extremes. Understanding alongside mean extreme is essential unraveling hydrological cycle’s response warming. We use a suite state-of-the-art climate models, with each model consisting single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE), yielding at least 15 individual realizations equally likely evolutions future state for model. The SMILE framework allows increased precision estimating evolving distribution precipitation, allowing forced be compared across models. show that scaling rates variability, relation rise global temperature are markedly robust timescales from interannual decadal. Over mid- high latitudes, it very increasing entire means extremes, as all timescales, seasonally can amplified. Model or structural uncertainty prevailing especially over Tropics Subtropics. uncover model-based estimates historical sensitive number members used, ‘small’ ensembles (of less than 30 members) systematically underestimating highlighting utility representation full distribution.

Language: Английский

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Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(9-10), P. 2557 - 2580

Published: May 29, 2021

We use a methodological framework exploiting the power of large ensembles to evaluate how well ten coupled climate models represent internal variability and response external forcings in observed historical surface temperatures. This evaluation allows us directly attribute discrepancies between observations biases simulated or forced response, without relying on assumptions separate these signals observations. The largest result from overestimated warming some during recent decades. In contrast, do not systematically over- underestimate global mean temperature. On regional scales, all misrepresent temperature over Southern Ocean, while overestimating land-surface areas, such as Amazon South Asia, high-latitude oceans. Our shows that MPI-GE, followed by GFDL-ESM2M CESM-LE offer best representation both

Language: Английский

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Increasing spatiotemporal proximity of heat and precipitation extremes in a warming world quantified by a large model ensemble

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 035005 - 035005

Published: Feb. 21, 2022

Abstract Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges change. Situations which occur close enough to another result amplified impacts, because systems are insufficiently resilient or themselves made more severe, special concern. We consider projected changes such compounding using Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble under a moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, produces warming about 2.25 °C between pre-industrial (1851–1880) 2100. find that extreme heat events occurring on three consecutive days increase frequency by 100%–300%, precipitation most regions, nearly doubling for some. The chance concurrent drought leading simultaneous maize failures breadbasket regions approximately doubles, while interannual wet-dry oscillations become at least 20% likely across much subtropics. Our results highlight importance taking extremes into account when looking possible tipping points socio-environmental systems.

Language: Английский

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Different mechanisms for daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves in southern China

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 36, P. 100449 - 100449

Published: April 26, 2022

Heatwaves often cause immense stress on human society and the natural environment. While heatwaves can be classified into daytime, nighttime, compound daytime-nighttime types, specific processes associated with different heatwave types remain poorly understood. In this paper, we identify mechanisms operating in (i.e., extreme heat during both day night) independent daytime nighttime southern China. Compound generally exhibit stronger temperature increases than either or types. Daytime are accompanied by increased downward shortwave radiation under a clear sky reduced cloud cover moisture. Nighttime characterized more cloudy moist conditions, longwave at surface night. A combination of these conditions for prevail heatwaves. All three strengthening eastward extension South Asian high (SAH) upper troposphere, westward western North Pacific subtropical (WNPSH) lower middle troposphere. Further examinations suggest that strongest intensification SAH WNPSH. Compared heatwaves, events amplitude WNPSH, highs tend to extend southward when occur. This induces an anomalous lower-level anticyclone drives southwesterly wind anomaly over southeastern circulation feature transports warmer humid air towards The enhanced concentration water vapor leads absorption outgoing radiation, re-emission surface, thus resulting warming

Language: Английский

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Highly efficient subambient all-day passive radiative cooling textiles with optically responsive MgO embedded in porous cellulose acetate polymer

Chemical Engineering Journal, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 469, P. 143765 - 143765

Published: June 7, 2023

Language: Английский

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The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High‐Frequency Model Output

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2023

Abstract Single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles are powerful tools to quantify the forced response, internal climate variability, and their evolution under global warming. Here, we present CMIP6 version of Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE CMIP6) with currently 30 realizations for historical period five emission scenarios. The power MPI‐GE goes beyond its predecessor ensemble by providing high‐frequency output, full range scenarios including highly policy‐relevant low SSP1‐1.9 SSP1‐2.6, opportunity compare complementary high‐resolution simulations. First, describe CMIP6, evaluate it observations reanalyzes MPI‐GE. Then, demonstrate six application examples how use better understand future extremes, inform about uncertainty in approaching Paris Agreement warming limits, combine artificial intelligence. For instance, allows us show that recently observed Siberian Pacific North American heatwaves would only avoid reaching 1–2 years return periods 2071–2100 scenarios, European precipitation extremes captured simulations, 3‐hourly output projects a decreasing activity storms mid‐latitude oceans. Further, is ideal estimates probabilities crossing limits irreducible introduced sufficiently be used infilling surface temperature

Language: Английский

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