Intraspecific genetic variation matters when predicting seagrass distribution under climate change

Molecular Ecology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 30(15), P. 3840 - 3855

Published: May 22, 2021

Seagrasses play a vital role in structuring coastal marine ecosystems, but their distributional range and genetic diversity have declined rapidly recent decades. To improve conservation of seagrass species, it is important to predict how climate change may impact ranges. Such predictions are typically made with correlative species distribution models (SDMs), which can estimate species' potential under present future climatic scenarios given presence data predictor variables. However, these constructed species-level data, thus ignore intraspecific variability, give rise populations adaptations heterogeneous conditions. Here, we explore the link between adaptation niche differentiation Thalassia hemprichii, broadly distributed tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean crucial provider habitat for numerous species. By retrieving re-analysing microsatellite from previous studies, delimited two distinct phylogeographical lineages within nominal found an intermediate level multidimensional environmental niches, suggesting possibility local adaptation. We then compared projections suitability using lineage-level SDMs. In Central Tropical region, both levels predicted considerable contraction future, more severe loss. Importantly, modelling approaches opposite patterns Western region. Our results highlight necessity conserving pools avoid regional extinction due implications guiding management seagrasses.

Language: Английский

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Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: July 5, 2024

Abstract Climate warming is one of the facets anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, colder-water retracting. However, future extent implications these shifts remain unclear. Here, we fitted a joint distribution model occurrence data 107, biomass 61 marine fish from 16,345 fishery independent trawls sampled between 2004 2022 northeast Ocean, including Barents Sea. We project overall increases richness declines relative dominance community, generalised species’ ranges across three different scenarios 2050 2100. projected decline capelin practical extirpation polar cod system, two most abundant Sea, drove an reduction at latitudes that not replaced by species. Furthermore, our projections suggest demersal will be high risk extinction end century if no climate refugia available eastern latitudes.

Language: Английский

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Modeling the spatial distribution of numbers of coral reef fish species and community types in the Western Indian Ocean faunal province

Marine Ecology Progress Series, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 730, P. 59 - 78

Published: Feb. 5, 2024

Predicting and mapping coral reef diversity at moderate scales can assist spatial planning prioritizing conservation activities. We made coarse-scale (6.25 km 2 ) predictive models for numbers of fish species community composition starting with a spatially complete database 70 environmental variables available 7039 mapped cells in the Western Indian Ocean. An ensemble model was created from process variable elimination selectivity to make best predictions irrespective human influences. This compared using preselected commonly used evaluate climate change fishing water quality Many (~27) contributed number models, but local biomass, depth, retention connectivity were dominant predictors. The key human-influenced included biomass distance populations, weaker associations sediments nutrients. Climate-influenced generally median sea surface temperature (SST) contributions declining order SST kurtosis, bimodality, excess summer heat, skewness, rate rise, cover. Community variability explained by richness axes damselfishes-angelfishes butterflyfishes-parrotfishes. Numbers damselfish-angelfish ecologically separated damselfishes declined increasing temperature, cumulative chronic stresses. Species butterflyfish-parrotfish butterflyfish acute variability, rise. Several hotspots found East African Coastal Current Ecoregion centered Tanzania, followed Mayotte, southern Kenya, northern Mozambique. If be maintained, broad distributions combined compensatory responses should maintain high ecological resilience other stressors.

Language: Английский

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Presence-only habitat suitability models for vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator taxa in the South Pacific have reached their predictive limit

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 78(8), P. 2830 - 2843

Published: Aug. 12, 2021

Abstract Vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) are typically fragile and slow to recover, making them likely be substantially altered by disturbance. In the High Seas, regional fishery management organizations (RFMOs) required implement measures prevent significant adverse impacts on VMEs. The objectives of present study were to: update distribution models VME indicator taxa in South Pacific RFMO Convention Area; evaluate these against newly-collated independent field data test reliability presence-only habitat suitability models; assess how well updated able predict into unsampled space. Ensemble 10 performed using newly collated (AUC > 0.95, TSS 0.76, RMSE < 0.34). There no obvious patterns decreasing model performance with environmental coverage; areas few samples underpinning predictions still had AUC 0.93, 0.71, 0.43. Despite encouraging results, we also identify some important inherent issues that have profound implications for their use Future modelling efforts purposes should based ideally survey presence-absence and, preferably, abundance data.

Language: Английский

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The Role of Environmental Drivers in Humpback Whale Distribution, Movement and Behavior: A Review

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: Nov. 10, 2021

Humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae , are a highly migratory species exposed to wide range of environmental factors during their lifetime. The spatial and temporal characteristics such play significant role in determining suitable habitats for breeding, feeding resting. existing studies the relationship between oceanic conditions humpback whale ecology provide basis understanding impacts on this species. Here we have determined most relevant drivers identified peer-reviewed literature published over last four decades, assessed methods used identify relationships. A total 148 were extracted through an online search. These combined estimated 105,000 observations 1,216 accumulated study years investigating whales both Northern Southern Hemispheres. Studies focusing areas found preferences upwelling, high chlorophyll-a concentration frontal with changes temperature, depth currents, where prey can be concentration. Preferred calving grounds as shallow, warm slow water movement aid survival calves. few migration routes shallow waters close shorelines moderate temperature Extracting information influence key behavioral modes important conservation, particularly regard expected under climate change.

Language: Английский

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Predicting the effects of climate change on deep‐water coral distribution around New Zealand—Will there be suitable refuges for protection at the end of the 21st century?

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(22), P. 6556 - 6576

Published: Aug. 15, 2022

Deep-water corals are protected in the seas around New Zealand by legislation that prohibits intentional damage and removal, marine areas where bottom trawling is prohibited. However, these measures do not protect them from impacts of a changing climate ocean acidification. To enable adequate future protection threats we require knowledge present distribution environmental conditions determine their preferred habitat, as well likely changes conditions, so can identify for potential refugia. In this study, built habitat suitability models 12 taxa deep-water using comprehensive set sample data predicted seafloor an earth system model specifically tailored South Pacific. These most there will be substantial shifts location suitable decreases area such end 21st century, driven primarily oxygen concentrations, shoaling aragonite calcite saturation horizons, increases nitrogen concentrations. The current network region appear to provide little coral taxa, overlap with highest suitability, either or future. We recommend urgent re-examination spatial region, utilising planning software balance requirements against value fishing mineral resources, take into account status habitats after decades trawling, consider connectivity pathways colonisation

Language: Английский

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Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

Marine Life Science & Technology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(2), P. 349 - 362

Published: May 13, 2024

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent environmental requirement a species. We tested what extent physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing Japanese sea cucumber

Language: Английский

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Combined species occurrence and density predictions to improve marine spatial management

Ocean & Coastal Management, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 209, P. 105697 - 105697

Published: May 24, 2021

Language: Английский

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Integration of presence‐only data from several sources: a case study on dolphins' spatial distribution

Ecography, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 44(10), P. 1533 - 1543

Published: Sept. 14, 2021

Presence‐only data are typical occurrence information used in species distribution modelling. Data may be originated from different sources, and their integration is a challenging exercise spatial ecology as detection biases rarely fully considered. We propose new protocol for presence‐only fusion, where sources include social media platforms, to investigate several possible solutions reduce uncertainty the modelling outputs. As case study, we use on two dolphin with ecological characteristics distribution, collected central Tyrrhenian through traditional research campaigns derived careful selection of images videos. built log‐Gaussian cox process that incorporates functions thinning each source. To finalize model Bayesian framework, specified priors all parameters. slightly informative avoid identifiability issues when estimating both animal intensity observation process. compared types function accessibility explanations. showed how function's variation affects findings representatives habitats distribution. Our allow sound understanding study area, confirming proposed approach's appropriateness. Besides, straightforward implementation R software, provision examples' code simulated data, consistently facilitate broader applicability method further validations. The approach widely functional can considered contexts.

Language: Английский

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Hector's dolphin Cephalorhynchus hectori ( )

Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 395 - 419

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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