Predicting the effects of climate change on deep‐water coral distribution around New Zealand—Will there be suitable refuges for protection at the end of the 21st century?

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(22), P. 6556 - 6576

Published: Aug. 15, 2022

Deep-water corals are protected in the seas around New Zealand by legislation that prohibits intentional damage and removal, marine areas where bottom trawling is prohibited. However, these measures do not protect them from impacts of a changing climate ocean acidification. To enable adequate future protection threats we require knowledge present distribution environmental conditions determine their preferred habitat, as well likely changes conditions, so can identify for potential refugia. In this study, built habitat suitability models 12 taxa deep-water using comprehensive set sample data predicted seafloor an earth system model specifically tailored South Pacific. These most there will be substantial shifts location suitable decreases area such end 21st century, driven primarily oxygen concentrations, shoaling aragonite calcite saturation horizons, increases nitrogen concentrations. The current network region appear to provide little coral taxa, overlap with highest suitability, either or future. We recommend urgent re-examination spatial region, utilising planning software balance requirements against value fishing mineral resources, take into account status habitats after decades trawling, consider connectivity pathways colonisation

Language: Английский

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Host specificity of coral-associated fauna and its relevance for coral reef biodiversity

International Journal for Parasitology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 54(2), P. 65 - 88

Published: Oct. 12, 2023

Coral-associated fauna predominantly consists of invertebrates and constitutes an important component coral reef biodiversity. The symbionts depend on their hosts for food, shelter substrate. They may act as parasites by feeding hosts, overgowing polyps, or excavating skeletons. Because some these species partly reside inside they be cryptic can easily overlooked in biodiversity surveys. Since no quantitative overview is available about inter-specific relationships, this present study adresses variation host ranges specificity across four large coral-associated taxa between the Atlantic Indo-Pacific oceans. These are: barnacles (Pyrgomatidae, n=95), gall crabs (Cryptochiridae, n=54), tubeworms (Serpulidae, n=31), date mussels (Lithophaginae, n=23). A total 335 was recorded. An index (STD) calculated per symbiont species, based distinctness taxonomic range levels (species, genus, family, etc.). Mean indices were statistically compared among associated two oceanic regions. Barnacles most host-specific, least. associates approximately 10 times richer more host-specific than counterparts. Coral families varied number associates, with hosting none. This could linked to traits (coral growth form, maximum size) probably also a result evolutionary history interspecific relationships.

Language: Английский

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Predicting the distribution of megabenthic communities on deep-water seamounts with cobalt-rich crusts in the Magellan Seamount Chain in the northwestern Pacific ocean

Deep Sea Research Part I Oceanographic Research Papers, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 208, P. 104303 - 104303

Published: April 21, 2024

Language: Английский

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Implications for the conservation of deep-water corals in the face of multiple stressors: A case study from the New Zealand region

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 346, P. 118938 - 118938

Published: Sept. 20, 2023

The waters around New Zealand are a global hotspot of biodiversity for deep-water corals; approximately one sixth the known coral species world have been recorded in region. Deep-water corals vulnerable to climate-related stressors and from damaging effects commercial fisheries. Current protection measures do not account vulnerability future climatic conditions, which predicted alter distribution suitable habitat them. Using recently developed suitability models 12 taxa fitted current seafloor environmental conditions (under different conditions: SSP2 - 4.5 SSP3 7.0) we explore possible levels spatial using decision-support tool Zonation. Specifically, assess impact bottom trawling on predictions distributions corals, then effectiveness while accounting refugia under conditions. cumulative was all taxa, but particularly reef-forming corals. Core areas were decrease many taxa. We found that designing day alone, having accounted impacts historic fishing impacts, unlikely provide adequate conservation deep water-corals climate change. Accounting planning identified may whilst still providing efficient distributions. These gains value be important given reduction due Finally, fisheries assessed measure (kg km-2 fish) (predicted change scenarios).

Language: Английский

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Spatial Modelling Approaches for Estimating Richness of Benthic Invertebrates Throughout New Zealand Waters

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Aim Understanding the distribution of marine biodiversity is critical for evidence‐based identification areas protection and restoration. Taxonomic richness a key, intuitive component often used to guide spatial planning protection. In this study, we explore relative merits two modelling approaches, stacked species models (S‐SDMs) macro‐ecological (MEMs), mapping benthic invertebrate taxa. Location New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone. Methods Two hundred seven individual layers from SDMs genera were pooled an existing database create single layer. The same occurrence data develop SDMs, comprising over 120k occurrences, was fit MEMs using ensemble approach. Results S‐SDM layer performed poorly when validated against observed richness, while MEM approach well. While there some consistencies in predicted as high substantial differences between methods also apparent, with seemingly better able discern nuanced, fine‐scale patterns richness. Areas by include parts Chatham Rise, large sub‐Antarctic region, continental‐shelf coastal habitat south South Island, north‐east coast North around East Cape Kermadec, Lau‐Colville Macquarie Ridges. Main Conclusions Spatial catchability biases underlying may contribute poor performance suggest not be appropriate datasets limited systematic sampling. predictions provide best available information waters thus offer important current future processes.

Language: Английский

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Increased stratification intensifies surface marine heatwaves north-east of Aotearoa New Zealand in New Zealand’s Earth System model

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 75(1)

Published: March 19, 2025

The Western Boundary Current system in the South Pacific is an important element of climate as it carries heat from tropical regions poleward. East Auckland (EAUC) flows along continental shelf break Aotearoa New Zealand’s North Island, transporting into this region. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increase ~0.15–0.2°C per decade region, just above global average, and marine heatwaves (MHWs) are projected to intensify despite a predicted decline oceanic volume transport This study investigates possible drivers extreme warming low (SSP1–2.6), medium (SSP2–4.5) high (SSP3–7.0) emission scenario using Earth System model. Our projections suggest mean 5.3% SSP1–2.6, 22% SSP2–4.5 46% SSP3–7.0. Although net (top 1000 m) within decline, near intensifies. turn leads stratification, shallower mixed layers, by 5 m 15 30 SSP3–7.0, more intense MHWs, Increased stratification top 250 contributes SSTs all SSPs, which reach ~2°C SSP1–2.6 4°C Despite overall MHWs further owing sustained reduced wind-induced vertical mixing.

Language: Английский

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Environmental drivers and the distribution of cold-water corals in the global ocean

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Oct. 13, 2023

Species distribution models (SDMs) are useful tools for describing and predicting the of marine species in data-limited environments. Outputs from SDMs have been used to identify areas spatial management, analyzing trawl closures, quantitatively measuring risk bottom trawling, evaluating protected improving conservation management. Cold-water corals globally distributed habitat-forming organisms that vulnerable anthropogenic impacts climate change, but data deficiency remains an ongoing issue effective management these important ecosystem engineers. In this study, we constructed 11 environmental seabed variables at 500 m resolution based on latest multi-depth global datasets high-resolution bathymetry. An ensemble modeling method was predict habitat suitability 10 widespread cold-water coral species, namely, 6 Scleractinian framework-forming 4 large gorgonian species. Temperature, depth, salinity, terrain ruggedness index, carbonate saturation state, chlorophyll were most factors determining distributions The Madrepora oculata showed widest niche breadth, while other demonstrated somewhat limited breadth. shallowest study Oculina varicosa , had distinctive group. model outputs represent highest-resolution predictions date valuable aiding conservation, continued research into

Language: Английский

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Marine connectivity conservation: Guidance for MPA and MPA network design and management

Marine Policy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 167, P. 106250 - 106250

Published: June 19, 2024

Language: Английский

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Using joint species distribution modelling to predict distributions of seafloor taxa and identify vulnerable marine ecosystems in New Zealand waters

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 19, 2023

Abstract Effective ecosystem-based management of bottom-contacting fisheries requires understanding how disturbances from fishing affect seafloor fauna over a wide range spatial and temporal scales. Using an extensive dataset faunal abundances collected using towed camera system, with spatially explicit predictor variables including bottom-trawl effort, we developed predictions abundance for 67 taxa Hierarchical Modelling Species Communities . The model fit metrics varied by taxon: the mean ten-fold cross-validated AUC score was 0.70 ± 0.1 (standard deviation) presence-absence R 2 0.11 models. Spatial probability occurrence (individuals per km ) taxon, but there were key areas overlap, highest predicted taxon richness in continental shelf break slope. resulting joint represent significant advances on previous because they are abundance, allow exploration co-occurrence patterns provide credible estimates (including rare species that often not included community-level distribution assessments). Habitat-forming considered to be Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem (VME) indicators (those physically or functionally fragile anthropogenic impacts) identified dataset. likely VME (as well as associated uncertainty) study area. Identifying most (rather than simply indicator taxa) provides much needed quantitative vulnerable habitats, facilitates evidence-based approach managing potential impacts bottom-trawling.

Language: Английский

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Key factors for species distribution modeling in benthic marine environments

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Dec. 4, 2023

Species distribution modeling is a widely used technique for estimating the potential habitats of target organisms based on their environmental preferences. These methods serve as valuable tools resource managers and conservationists, utilization increasing, particularly in marine environments where data limitations persist challenge. In this study, we employed global predictions six cold-water coral species case study to investigate various factors influencing predictions, including algorithms, background points sampling strategies sizes, collinearity datasets, using both discriminative functional performance metrics. The choice method exhibits stronger influence model compared effects point size, dataset. Predictions that utilize kernel density backgrounds, maintain an equal number presences algorithms BRT, RF, MARS, employ substantial MAXENT, coupled with collinearity-filtered dataset modeling, yield higher levels performance. Overall, BRT RF outperformed conclusion further substantiated by analysis smoothed residuals uncertainty associated predicted habitat suitability Madrepora oculata . This offers insights enhancing benthic environments, thereby benefiting management conservation species.

Language: Английский

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