Different facets of the same niche: Integrating citizen science and scientific survey data to predict biological invasion risk under multiple global change drivers

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(19), P. 5509 - 5523

Published: Aug. 7, 2023

Abstract Citizen science initiatives have been increasingly used by researchers as a source of occurrence data to model the distribution alien species. Since citizen presence‐only suffer from some fundamental issues, efforts made combine these with those provided scientifically structured surveys. Surprisingly, only few studies proposing integration evaluated contribution this process effective sampling species' environmental niches and, consequently, its effect on predictions new time intervals. We relied niche overlap analyses, machine learning classification algorithms and ecological models compare ability scientific surveys, along their integration, in capturing realized 13 invasive species Italy. Moreover, we assessed differences current future invasion risk predicted each set under multiple global change scenarios. showed that surveys captured similar though highlighting exclusive portions associated clearly identifiable conditions. In terrestrial species, granted highest gain space pooled niches, determining an increased biological risk. A aquatic modelled at regional scale reported net loss compared survey suggesting may also lead contraction niches. For lower These findings indicate represent valuable predicting spread especially within national‐scale programmes. At same time, collected poorly known scientists, or strictly local contexts, strongly affect quantification taxa prediction

Language: Английский

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Efficiency of birds as bioindicators for other taxa in mountain farmlands

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 158, P. 111569 - 111569

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Biodiversity loss is a global issue, particularly in mountain regions, where land-use/land-cover and climate change dramatically impact on species communities. Sound ecological research up-to-date information biodiversity are needed to support conservation efforts. However, this often difficult costly obtain. Therefore, bioindicators serve as surrogates provide the entire biocenosis. Birds considered excellent they occupy different niches trait spaces. We present study about efficiency of birds for diversity other taxa region Central Alps. surveyed bird communities at 115 sites across gradient grasslands crops compared them with (bats, butterflies, grasshoppers, arachnids, vascular plants). aimed identify indicator crops, assess cross-community concordance between taxa, model indices habitat types taxa. identified grassland crop found that single varied highlight importance using carefully selected monitoring planning, need an integrated interdisciplinary approach research. Moreover, by looking combination we can gain more comprehensive understanding ecosystem functioning. also framework use bird-based programs bird-derived guide conservation, emphasise incorporating into patterns trends.

Language: Английский

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Modeling the distribution of Aloe ankoberensis and A. debrana under different climate change scenarios in North Shewa Zone, Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia

Ecological Processes, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: May 17, 2024

Abstract Background Aloe ankoberensis M.G. Gilbert & Sebsebe and A. debrana Christian are Ethiopian endemic species currently classified as endangered least concern, respectively under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories. Recent studies indicate that climate change is anticipated to significantly influence the distribution plant species. Therefore, this study aimed model different scenarios in North Shewa Zone, Amhara National Regional State Ethiopia. Thirty-six 397 georeferenced presence points , respectively, 12 environmental variables were used simulate their current future distributions. The ensemble approach was examine (2050 2070) climatic suitability both three shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) (SSP 2.6, 4.5 8.5). Results performance excellent with score area curve (AUC) 0.96 true skill statistics (TSS) 0.88, good AUC 0.87 TSS 0.63. main affected species' distributions mean diurnal range temperature, annual precipitation, elevation. According model, conditions, 98.32%, 1.01%, 0.52%, 0.15% not suitable, lowly, moderately, highly suitable areas, 63.89%, 23.35%, 12.54%, 0.21% moderately . Under scenarios, habitats these could shrink. In addition, all it areas will be lost completely unless crucial interventions done on time. Conclusions results may witness a decline habitat which leads increasing threat extinction. develop conservation plan enhance adaptation strategies mitigate loss highland sub-Afroalpine

Language: Английский

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Application of a trait‐based climate change vulnerability assessment to determine management priorities at protected area scale

Conservation Science and Practice, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4(8)

Published: July 6, 2022

Abstract Estimating and planning for the impacts of climate change on biodiversity protected areas is a major challenge conservation managers. When these are topographically heterogenous contain species' entire ranges, this exacerbated because coarse spatial scales Global Circulation Model projections provide limited information within‐park management. South Africa's Table Mountain National Park, home to three endemic amphibian species in just ~24,500 hectares, provides case study identifying needs under change. Selecting park's herpetofauna as pilot taxa, we identified life history demographic characteristics believed make more sensitive less able adapt We organized into assessment frameworks and, through combination literature review expert elicitation, reviewed used them assess vulnerability 18 41 reptile species. The highlighted that 73% 67% species, respectively, had at least one high‐sensitivity low‐adaptive capacity trait. Using ordinal additive scoring methods, most vulnerable highlight park containing their highest concentrations. These will be inform landscape‐scale management priorities use zones. current IUCN Red List assessments do not incorporate vulnerability. Considering some appear threatened by change, might underestimated. Identifying mechanisms underpinning can guide identification prioritization needs, while knowledge gaps monitoring research. While comprehensive adaptation Park requires additional other taxonomic groups, trait‐based example highlights viable tool assessing areas.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 610 - 610

Published: April 18, 2023

The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for threatened such as Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed assess habitat suitability target under varying scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but date no research work has been conducted considers endemic animal Himalayas. A total 81 presence points, 19 bioclimatic 3 topographic variables were in (SDM), calibration optimization performed select best candidate model. For scenarios, data drawn from SSPs 245 585 2050s 2070s. Out 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature coldest slope, warmest quarter, range (in order) detected most influential drivers. high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) observed all targeted expand (about 3.7 13%) change same evident according local residents which are locally considered extinct area, be shifting northwards along elevation gradient away human settlements. This study recommends additional prevent potential population collapses, identify other possible causes extinction events. Our findings will aid formulating serve basis monitoring species.

Language: Английский

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Investigating the impact of climate change on trend shifts of vegetation growth in Gilgit Baltistan

Global and Planetary Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 232, P. 104341 - 104341

Published: Dec. 22, 2023

Language: Английский

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Modeling the Climate Suitability of Northernmost Mangroves in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Forests, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 64 - 64

Published: Jan. 4, 2022

Mangroves are important wetland ecosystems on tropical and subtropical coasts. There is an urgent need to better understand how the spatial distribution of mangroves varies with climate change factors. Species models can be used reveal mangroves; however, global typically have a horizontal resolution hundreds kilometers more than 1 km, even after downscaling. In present study, maximum entropy model was predict suitable areas for northernmost in China 2050s. An approach proposed improve credibility suitability predictions by incorporating land-use potential. Predictions were made based two CMIP6 scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5). The results show that northern edge natural mangrove would migrate from 27.20° N 27.39° N–28.15° N, total extent habitats expand. By integrating 30 m data refine model’s predictions, under scenario, predicted 13,435 ha, which increase 33.9% compared current scenario. Under SSP5-8.5 area 23,120 increased rate 96.5%. Approximately 40–44% simulated patches adjacent aquacultural ponds, cultivated, artificial land, may restrict expansion. Collectively, our showed land use could influence distributions, providing scientific basis adaptive habitat management despite change.

Language: Английский

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Altitudinal shifting of major forest tree species in Italian mountains under climate change

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Sept. 8, 2023

Climate change has profound implications for global ecosystems, particularly in mountainous regions where species distribution and composition are highly sensitive to changing environmental conditions. Understanding the potential impacts of climate on native forest is crucial effective conservation management strategies. Despite numerous studies impacts, there remains a need investigate future dynamics suitability key species, especially specific sections. This study aims address this knowledge gap by examining shifts altitudinal range Italy's regions. By using models, through MaxEnt we show divergent among scenarios, with most experiencing contraction their whereas others extend beyond current tree line. The Northern North-Eastern Apennines exhibit greatest widespread all emphasizing vulnerability. Our findings highlight complex dynamic nature Italy. While projected experience range, European larch Alpine region Turkey oak gains could play significant roles maintaining wooded populations. line generally expected shift upward, impacting beech—a keystone Italian mountain environment—negatively arc Apennines, while showing good above 1,500 meters Central Southern Apennines. Instead, Maritime pine emerges as promising candidate biodiversity, terms population composition, suggest comprehensive emphasizes importance high-resolution data considering multiple factors scenarios when assessing have at local, regional, national levels, continued efforts producing reliable datasets forecasts inform targeted adaptive strategies face change.

Language: Английский

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Modelling reveals the effect of climate and land use change on Madagascar’s chameleons fauna

Communications Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: July 21, 2024

Abstract The global biodiversity crisis is generated by the combined effects of human-induced climate change and land conversion. Madagascar one World’s most renewed hotspots biodiversity. Yet, its rich variety plant animal species threatened deforestation change. Predicting future Madagascar’s chameleons, in particular, complicated their ecological rarity, making it hard to tell which factor menacing survival. By applying an extension ENphylo distribution model algorithm work with extremely rare species, we find that chameleons will face intense loss north-western sector island. Land conversion humans drive loss, intersect a complex, nonlinear manner We some 30% may lose nearly all habitats, critically jeopardizing chance for

Language: Английский

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Impacts of Land Use Changes in Indian Himalayas: A Socio-economic and Ecological Perspective

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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