A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 89(3)

Published: May 2, 2019

Abstract A large array of species distribution model ( SDM ) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences individual or assemblages. Given wealth existing models, it is unclear which models perform best interpolation extrapolation data sets, particularly when one concerned with We compared predictive performance 33 variants 15 widely applied recently emerged s in context multispecies data, including both joint that multiple together, stacked each individually combining predictions afterward. offer a comprehensive evaluation these by examining their withheld empirical validation different sizes representing five taxonomic groups, prediction tasks related to extrapolation. measure 12 measures accuracy, discrimination power, calibration, precision predictions, biological levels occurrence, richness, community composition. Our results show variation among performance, especially communities comprising many are rare. The do not reveal any major trade‐offs performance; same performed generally well terms discrimination, species, In contrast, gave most precise were calibrated, suggesting poorly performing can make overconfident predictions. However, none all tasks. As general strategy, we therefore propose researchers fit small set showing complementary then apply cross‐validation procedure involving separate establish performs goal study.

Language: Английский

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Without quality presence–absence data, discrimination metrics such as TSS can be misleading measures of model performance

Journal of Biogeography, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 45(9), P. 1994 - 2002

Published: July 2, 2018

Abstract The discriminating capacity (i.e. ability to correctly classify presences and absences) of species distribution models ( SDM s) is commonly evaluated with metrics such as the area under receiving operating characteristic curve AUC ), Kappa statistic true skill TSS ). have been repeatedly criticized, but has fared relatively well since its introduction, mainly because it considered independent prevalence. In addition, discrimination contested they should be calculated on presence–absence data, are often used presence‐only or presence‐background data. Here, we investigate an alternative set metrics—similarity indices, also known F ‐measures. We first show that even in ideal conditions perfectly random sampling), can misleading dependence prevalence, whereas similarity/ ‐measures provide adequate estimations model capacity. Second, real‐world situations where sample prevalence different from biased sampling presence‐pseudoabsence), no metric provides estimation capacity, including specifically designed for modelling presence‐pseudoabsence Our conclusions twofold. First, unequivocally impel users understand potential shortcomings when quality data lacking, recommend obtaining specific case virtual species, which increasingly develop test methodologies, strongly use ‐measures, were not by contrary .

Language: Английский

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Ecological and evolutionary legacy of megafauna extinctions

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 93(2), P. 845 - 862

Published: Oct. 9, 2017

ABSTRACT For hundreds of millions years, large vertebrates (megafauna) have inhabited most the ecosystems on our planet. During late Quaternary, notably during Late P leistocene and early H olocene, Earth experienced a rapid extinction large, terrestrial vertebrates. While much attention has been paid to understanding causes this massive megafauna extinction, less given impacts loss other organisms with whom they interacted. In review, we discuss how disrupted reshaped ecological interactions, explore consequences ongoing decline Numerous Quaternary extinct species predators, parasites, commensals mutualistic partners were associated probably lost due their strict dependence upon them (co‐extinctions). Moreover, many extant megafauna‐adapted traits that provided evolutionary benefits under past megafauna‐rich conditions, but are now no or limited use (anachronisms). Morphological evolution behavioural changes allowed some these partially overcome absence megafauna. Although led number co‐extinction events, several likely co‐evolved established new interactions humans domestic animals. Species highly specialized in megafauna, such as commensalists (e.g. scavengers, dung beetles), could not adapt hosts prey more die out. Partners dependent persisted because plasticity by shifting dependency via domestication, facilitation pathogen spill‐over, through We argue Anthropocene will catalyse another wave co‐extinctions enormous diversity key functional roles

Language: Английский

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Droughts, Wildfires, and Forest Carbon Cycling: A Pantropical Synthesis

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 47(1), P. 555 - 581

Published: May 30, 2019

Tropical woody plants store ∼230 petagrams of carbon (PgC) in their aboveground living biomass. This review suggests that these stocks are currently growing primary forests at rates have decreased recent decades. Droughts an important mechanism reducing forest C uptake and by decreasing photosynthesis, elevating tree mortality, increasing autotrophic respiration, promoting wildfires. were a source to the atmosphere during 2015–2016 El Niño–related drought, with some estimates suggesting up 2.3 PgC released. With continued climate change, intensity frequency droughts fires will likely increase. It is unclear what point impacts severe, repeated disturbances drought could exceed tropical forests’ capacity recover. Although specific threshold conditions beyond which ecosystem properties lead alternative stable states largely unknown, body scientific evidence points such becoming more as land use change across tropics. ▪ reduced Threshold pushed into effects intensify.

Language: Английский

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A long winter for the Red Queen: rethinking the evolution of seasonal migration

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 94(3), P. 737 - 752

Published: Nov. 4, 2018

Abstract This paper advances an hypothesis that the primary adaptive driver of seasonal migration is maintenance site fidelity to familiar breeding locations. We argue therefore principally adaptation for geographic persistence when confronted with seasonality – analogous hibernation, freeze tolerance, or other organismal adaptations cyclically fluctuating environments. These ideas stand in contrast traditional views bird evolved as dispersal strategy exploiting new areas and avoiding competitors. Our synthesis supported by a large body research on avian biology demonstrates reproductive benefits breeding‐site fidelity. Conceptualizing places emphasis understanding evolutionary trade‐offs between migratory behaviour environments both within across species. Seasonality‐induced departures from areas, coupled maintaining fidelity, also provide mechanism explaining evolution agnostic origin lineages (i.e. temperate tropical). Thus, our framework reconciles much conflict previous historical biogeography Although range change fluidly rapidly many populations, we loss plasticity via canalization overlooked aspect dynamics helps explain idiosyncratic distributions routes long‐distance migrants. synthesis, which revolves around insight organisms travel long distances simply stay same place, provides necessary context biogeographic patterns well ecological connectivity non‐breeding

Language: Английский

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Contributions of Quaternary botany to modern ecology and biogeography

Plant Ecology & Diversity, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 12(3-4), P. 189 - 385

Published: May 4, 2019

Quaternary (last 2.6 million years) botany involves studying plant megafossils (e.g. tree stumps), macrofossils seeds, leaves), and microfossils pollen, spores) preserved in peat bogs lake sediments. Although have been studied since the late eighteenth century, today is largely dominated by pollen analysis.Quaternary analysis just over 100 years old. It started primarily as a geological tool for correlation, relative dating, climate reconstruction. In 1950 major advance occurred with publication Knut Fægri Johs Iversen of their Text-book Modern Pollen Analysis which provided foundations botanical ecological past dynamics biota biotic systems. The development radiocarbon dating 1950s freed from being dating. As result these developments, became valuable implement long-term ecology biogeography.Selected contributions that has made to biogeography are reviewed. They fall into four general parts: (1) aspects interglacial glacial stages such location nature glacial-stage refugia soil glaciated unglaciated areas; (2) responses environmental change (spreading, extinction, persistence, adaptation); (3) topics potential niches, vegetation, forest dynamics; (4) its application human impact tropical systems, conservation changing world, island palaeoecology, plant–animal interactions, biodiversity patterns time.The future briefly discussed 10 suggestions presented help strengthen it links biogeography. much contribute when used conjunction new approaches ancient-DNA, molecular biomarkers, multi-proxy palaeoecology.

Language: Английский

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Understanding extinction debts: spatio–temporal scales, mechanisms and a roadmap for future research

Ecography, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 42(12), P. 1973 - 1990

Published: July 13, 2019

Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such and investigating long‐term consequences perturbations has proven challenging, because are not isolated occur across various spatial temporal scales, from local habitat losses global warming. Additionally, the relative importance eco‐evolutionary processes varies levels ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations (meta)communities, respond hierarchically perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge scales mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical methodological studies addressing either spatio–temporal debts or delaying extinctions. were detected range ecosystems taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging 9 90% richness. The duration over which have been sustained 5 570 yr, projections total period required settle can extend 1000 yr. Reported causes 1) life‐history traits that prolong individual survival, 2) population metapopulation dynamics maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors may survival time microevolutionary dynamics, interaction partners, rarely analyzed. Therefore, propose roadmap for future research three key avenues: processes, disjunctive loss interacting 3) impact multiple regimes perturbation on payment debts. For their ability integrate occurring at different highlight mechanistic simulation models tools address these gaps deepen understanding dynamics.

Language: Английский

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The Ecology of Tropical East Asia

Oxford University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: June 27, 2019

Abstract Tropical East Asia is home to over 1 billion people and faces massive human impacts from its rising population rapid economic growth. It has already lost more than half of forest cover the highest rates deforestation logging in tropics. Hunting trade wildlife products threaten all large many smaller vertebrates. Despite these problems, region still supports an estimated 15–25 per cent global terrestrial biodiversity thus a key focus for conservation. This book therefore deals with plants, animals, ecosystems they inhabit, as well diverse threats their survival options provides background knowledge region’s ecology needed by both specialists non-specialists put own work into broader context. The first edition was describe entire Asian tropics subtropics, southern China western Indonesia, second extended coverage include very similar Northeast India, Bangladesh, Bhutan. third updates contents gives prominence Anthropocene possible conservation responses. accessible style, comprehensive coverage, engaging illustrations make this advanced textbook essential read senior undergraduate graduate-level students studying tropics, authoritative reference professional ecologists, conservationists, interested amateurs worldwide.

Language: Английский

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Conceptual and methodological advances in habitat‐selection modeling: guidelines for ecology and evolution

Ecological Applications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 32(1)

Published: Oct. 9, 2021

Abstract Habitat selection is a fundamental animal behavior that shapes wide range of ecological processes, including movement, nutrient transfer, trophic dynamics and population distribution. Although habitat has been focus studies for decades, technological, conceptual methodological advances over the last 20 yr have led to surge in addressing this process. Despite substantial literature focused on quantifying habitat‐selection patterns animals, there marked lack guidance best analytical practices. The foundations most commonly applied modeling frameworks can be confusing even those well versed their application. Furthermore, yet synthesis made yr. Therefore, need both current state knowledge selection, seeking study Here, we provide an approachable overview analyses (HSAs) conducted using functions, which are by far framework understanding This review purposefully non‐technical without heavy mathematical statistical notation, confuse many practitioners. We offer history HSAs, describing tortuous path our understanding. Through overview, also aim address areas greatest confusion literature. synthesize outlining exciting field modeling, discussing evolutionary inference contemporary techniques. paper clarity navigating complex HSAs while acting as reference practices guide

Language: Английский

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Forest bees are replaced in agricultural and urban landscapes by native species with different phenologies and life‐history traits

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 24(1), P. 287 - 296

Published: Oct. 4, 2017

Anthropogenic landscapes are associated with biodiversity loss and large shifts in species composition traits. These changes predict the identities of winners losers future global change, also reveal which environmental variables drive a taxon's response to land use change. We explored how native bee across forested, agricultural, urban landscapes. collected community data from 36 sites 75,000 km2 region, analyzed abundance, richness, composition, life-history Season-long abundance richness were not detectably different between natural anthropogenic landscapes, but phenologies differed strongly, an early spring peak followed by decline forests, more extended summer season agricultural habitats. Bee significantly all three types, as did phylogenetic composition. had negative effects on persistence several strategies, including flight brood parasitism, may indicate adaptation conditions forest habitat. Overall, communities diminished subsets contemporary communities. Rather, do persist habitats, replaced lineages preadapted open Characterizing compositional functional differences is crucial for understanding change driver regional scales.

Language: Английский

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