The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 746 - 756

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls an increased emphasis on prediction ecology, the potential to accelerate theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide conceptual framework describing how forecasts can energize advance theory. We emphasize opportunities future progress this area through forecast development, comparison synthesis. Our describes approach shed new light existing theories while also allowing researchers address novel questions. Through rigorous repeated testing hypotheses, help refine understand their generality across Meanwhile, synthesizing allows about relative predictability variables horizons scales. envision where is integrated as part toolset used fundamental ecology. By outlining relevance theory, aim decrease barriers entry broaden community using insight.

Language: Английский

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Applications of telemetry to fish habitat science and management

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 79(8), P. 1347 - 1359

Published: May 24, 2022

Telemetry has major potential for application to fish habitat science and management, but date it is underutilized in this regard. We posit because (1) telemetry projects are often geared towards detecting movement, opposed systematically sampling selection, (2) there differences scale between data management decisions. discuss various ways which can contribute present some considerations improving its field. To date, most studies have been descriptive (e.g., use area A more than B); greater adoption of inferential study approaches that assess causal ecological drivers movement space would be value require extensive measurement environmental conditions. conclude by presenting a conceptual framework scaling from individual broad applications management. Established networks readily support synthesis activities, although tracking rarely stored together, current disconnects among repositories may constrain integration scalability.

Language: Английский

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Building use‐inspired species distribution models: Using multiple data types to examine and improve model performance

Ecological Applications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 33(6)

Published: June 7, 2023

Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is increasing diversity volume of biodiversity data training SDMs, little practical guidance available on how to leverage distinct types build robust models. We explored the effect different fit, performance predictive ability SDMs by comparing trained with four a heavily exploited pelagic fish, blue shark (Prionace glauca), in Northwest Atlantic: two fishery dependent (conventional mark-recapture tags, fisheries observer records) independent (satellite-linked electronic pop-up archival tags). found that all can result models, but differences among spatial predictions highlighted need consider ecological realism model selection interpretation regardless type. Differences were primarily attributed biases each type, associated representation absences, sampled environment summarized resulting species distributions. Outputs from ensembles pooled both proved effective combining inferences across provided more ecologically realistic than individual Our results provide valuable practitioners developing SDMs. With access diverse sources, future work should further develop truly integrative modeling approaches explicitly strengths statistically accounting limitations, such as sampling biases.

Language: Английский

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Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: May 12, 2022

Abstract Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet’s changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts highly problematic for the communities businesses that depend on these living resources. Advances in prediction mean some regions drivers of be forecast up a decade ahead, although forecasts distribution this critical time-scale, while sought after stakeholders, have yet materialise. Here, we demonstrate application decadal-scale predictions habitat species. We show statistically significant skill individual years outperform baseline 3–10 ahead; multi-year averages perform even better, yielding correlation coefficients excess 0.90 cases. also underlying over Atlantic mackerel fishing rights could been foreseen. Our results provide information direct relevance stakeholders decadal-scale. This tool will foreseeing, adapting coping with challenges future climate, particularly most ocean-dependent nations communities.

Language: Английский

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Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: A view from three California Current fisheries

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 211, P. 102973 - 102973

Published: Jan. 20, 2023

Motivated by a need for climate-informed living marine resource management, increased emphasis has been placed on regional end-to-end modeling frameworks designed to project climate impacts ecosystems and evaluate the efficacy of potential management strategies under changing conditions. The 'Future Seas' was initiated with focus three fisheries (Pacific sardine, swordfish, albacore tuna) in California Current System (CCS). This work leverages suite climate, ocean, ecosystem, economic models physical, ecological, socio-economic change, strategies, quantify uncertainty model projections. Here we describe components framework, considerations underlying choices made development, engagement stakeholders, key results date, including projections 2100. Our broad aims are (i) synthesize large body research that conducted, continues, Future Seas umbrella, (ii) provide insight recommendations those pursuing similar efforts other applications regions. In general, our indicate all species will likely shift their distributions (predominantly poleward) future, which accessibility fishing fleets, spatial quota allocation. For integrative climate-to-fisheries projections, recommend attention is given to: recognizing biases arising from differences between products used ecological fitting projection; how sources projection prioritized, incorporated, communicated; quantitatively linking scenarios – especially

Language: Английский

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A Comprehensive Review of the Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon: Strengths and Weaknesses of the Literature by Life Stage

Fishes, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 8(6), P. 319 - 319

Published: June 16, 2023

As we confront novel environmental challenges, a full understanding of the physical and biological processes that govern species responses to climate change will help maintain biodiversity support conservation measures are more robust irreducible uncertainty. However, impacts so complex, literature on salmon trout is vast researchers decision makers scramble make sense it all. Therefore, conducted systematic review anadromous as resource for stakeholders, managers, researchers. We reviewed studies published from 2010 2021 address these fish organized them in database 1169 1853 papers. Papers labeled with keywords across eight categories related subject matter study methods. compared by process life stage used comparisons assess strengths weaknesses. then summarized expected phenotypic genetic management actions stage. Overall, found largest research gaps interactions, behavioral responses, effects carry over stages. With this collection literature, can better apply scarce resources, fill knowledge gaps, informed decisions do not ignore

Language: Английский

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The micro-niche explains allotopy and syntopy in South American Liolaemus (Iguania: Liolaemidae) lizards

PeerJ, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13, P. e18979 - e18979

Published: Feb. 17, 2025

Species distribution models have been established as essential tools for projecting the effects of changing environmental conditions on species across space and time. The microclimatic niche denotes within a habitat at small scale or localized area. These direct influence several ecological traits these determine which organisms can survive and/or reproduce. This study examines microclimate data from four sites located in Northwestern Salta Province, Argentina. Four South American Liolaemus lizard were found to inhabit allotopy syntopy, with irregularis inhabiting all sites. is sole Site 1; L. inhabits 2 syntopy multicolor; 3 yanalcu; 4 albiceps. To characterize sites, model was generated an interval 10 AM 6 PM every day, years. exhibited some differences combination climatic soil characteristics. 1 characterized by low relative humidity, high temperature, wind speed, Cambisol type. had moderate Andosol Regosol Temperature, type, diet influenced presence each site. It evident that microenvironmental profoundly biological interactions.

Language: Английский

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Testing space‐for‐time transferability of climate effects on occupancy and abundance

Functional Ecology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 20, 2025

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are frequently used to project species' ranges under future climate conditions. Such space‐for‐time substitutions rely on the assumptions that spatial climate‐distribution relationships causal and equivalent over space time. These have rarely been tested. Using UK populations of Orange‐tip butterfly ( Anthocharis cardamines ) as a case study, we demonstrate an approach test whether these key met. First, identified seasonal periods which temperature precipitation variables best explained butterfly's abundance. Then, compared effects both occupancy abundance versus We found that, time, in previous year's flight period has positive effect (i.e. presence) butterfly, whereas appeared not effect. temporal did differ from at colder sites, but warmer magnitude significantly differed. Conversely, (mid‐range) with magnitudes differing sites. Our results importance identifying before making projections. also show reliability SDM projections time can be highly context dependent, even when considering single species. Therefore, where data available modelling presented here should incorporated into statistical repertoire improve Read free Plain Language Summary for this article Journal blog.

Language: Английский

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Both environmental conditions and fisher behaviour influence the occurrence of shark and odontocete depredation on the longline catch in New Caledonia

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 285, P. 107378 - 107378

Published: April 22, 2025

Language: Английский

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Leveraging Data From Defunct Gillnet Fisheries to Understand the Distributional Dynamics of a Rare Pelagic Fish, the Louvar (Luvarus imperialis)

Fisheries Oceanography, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

ABSTRACT The louvar ( Luvarus imperialis ) is an exceedingly rare circumtropical fish species with a poorly understood ecology. Catch data from defunct drift gillnet fisheries provide unparalleled way to quantify the distributional dynamics of this that, as gelativore, almost never taken bycatch on fish‐ or squid‐baited longlines that dominate modern open ocean fisheries. Here, we present largest observational dataset assembled for louvar, combining > 30 years observer presence–absence records two such spanning vast expanse pelagic North Pacific. We leverage these construct distribution model quantifies species' environmental preferences, enabling us confront knowledge gaps its core and investigate variability among seasons, years, alternate phases climate oscillations. show enigmatic favors waters positive sea surface height shallow mixed layer depth, consistent high, but seasonally variable, model‐predicted suitable habitat in Pacific Transition Zone California Current. In addition, our results suggest have experienced slight loss 1990 2023 response large‐scale This study highlights value using framework synthesize diverse datasets, characterize species–environment relationships, infer basic spatiotemporal cannot be reliably sampled.

Language: Английский

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