MaxEnt brings comparable results when the input data are being completed; Model parameterization of four species distribution models

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2023

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are practical tools to assess the habitat suitability of species with numerous applications in environmental management and conservation planning. The manipulation input data deal their spatial bias is one advantageous methods enhance performance SDMs. However, development a model parameterization approach covering different SDMs achieve well‐performing has rarely been implemented. We integrated tuning for four commonly‐used SDMs: generalized linear (GLM), gradient boosted (GBM), random forest (RF), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), compared predictive geographically imbalanced‐biased rare complex mountain vipers. Models were tuned up based on range model‐specific parameters considering two background selection methods: weighting schemes. fine‐tuned was assessed recently identified localities species. results indicated that although version all shows great predicting training (AUC > 0.9 TSS 0.5), they produce classifying out‐of‐bag data. GBM RF higher sensitivity showed more performances. GLM, despite having high test data, lower specificity. It only MaxEnt comparable identifying both procedures. Our highlight while prone overfitting GLM over‐predict nonsampled areas capable producing predictable (extrapolative) (interpolative). discuss assumptions each conclude could be considered as method cope modeling approaches.

Language: Английский

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Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 26(12), P. 2043 - 2055

Published: Oct. 3, 2023

Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside the shade of trees. For forest plant across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based distribution models (SDMs) with corrected for microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed and coarser resolution. Additionally, introduced a systematic bias response curves, which could result erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important conservation science, these were unable identify warm cold refugia edges distributions. Our study emphasizes crucial role when used gain insights into biodiversity face climate change, particularly given growing policy management focus on worldwide.

Language: Английский

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Scale mismatches between predictor and response variables in species distribution modelling: A review of practices for appropriate grain selection

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 47(3), P. 467 - 482

Published: Feb. 21, 2023

There is a lack of guidance on the choice spatial grain predictor and response variables in species distribution models (SDM). This review summarizes current state art with regard to following points: (i) effects changing resolution model performance; (ii) effect conducting multi-grain versus single-grain analysis (iii) role land cover type autocorrelation selecting appropriate size. In reviewed literature, we found that coarsening variable typically leads declining performance. Therefore, recommend aiming for finer resolutions unless there reason do otherwise (e.g. expert knowledge ecological scale). We also so far, improvements performance reported have been relatively low useful predictions can be generated even from single-scale models. addition, use high-resolution predictors improves however, only limited evidence whether this applies coarser-resolution 100 km 2 coarser). Low-resolution are usually sufficient associated fairly common environmental conditions but not less ones vs rare category). because reduces variability within heterogeneous underrepresentation environments, which lead decrease Thus, assessing at multiple grains provide insights into impacts their Overall, observed studies examining simultaneous manipulation variables. stress need explicitly report all

Language: Английский

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Spatial resolution impacts projected plant responses to climate change on topographically complex islands

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(10), P. 1245 - 1262

Published: July 27, 2023

Abstract Aim Understanding how grain size affects our ability to characterize species responses ongoing climate change is of crucial importance in the context an increasing awareness for substantial difference that exists between coarse spatial resolution macroclimatic data sets and microclimate actually experienced by organisms. Climate impacts on biodiversity are expected peak mountain areas, wherein differences macro microclimates precisely largest. Based a newly generated fine‐scale environmental Canary Islands, we assessed whether at 100 m able provide more accurate predictions than available 1 km resolution. We also analysed future suitability island endemic bryophytes differ depending grids. Location Islands. Time period Present (1979–2013) late‐century (2071–2100). Taxa Bryophytes. Methods compared accuracy using ensemble small models 14 Macaronesian bryophyte species. used two sets: CHELSA v1.2 (~1 km) CanaryClim v1.0 (100 m), downscaled version latter utilizing from local weather stations. encompasses five individual model intercomparison projects three warming shared socio‐economic pathways. Results Species distribution exhibited similar accuracy, but predicted buffered trends mid‐elevation ridges. consistently returned higher proportions suitable pixels (8%–28%) (0%–3%). Consequently, proportion occupy uncertain was with (3–8 species) (0–2 species). Main conclusions The impacted rather performance models. Our results highlight role fine‐resolution can play predicting potential both microrefugia new range under climate.

Language: Английский

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Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(3), P. 454 - 466

Published: Jan. 22, 2024

Abstract To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The Alps are key hub this network hosting some most extensive natural areas and hotspots Europe. Here we assess robustness current reserve safeguard Alps’ flora 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that needs strong readjustments as it does not capture patterns well our Overall, predict shift need time along latitudes, from lower higher elevations plants migrate upslope shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% resident flora. In face global changes, future will ensure elevation latitudinal connections complementarily multifaceted beyond national borders.

Language: Английский

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Fine-scale satellite-based monitoring of temperature and vegetation cover in microclimates, distribution ranges, and landscape connectivity for Neurergus kaiseri (Kaiser’s mountain newt) during the breeding season

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 170, P. 113077 - 113077

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Where Will Threatened Aegle marmelos L., a Tree of the Semi-Arid Region, Go under Climate Change? Implications for the Reintroduction of the Species

Land, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(7), P. 1433 - 1433

Published: July 18, 2023

The conservation of threatened species and the restoration ecosystems have emerged as crucial ecological prerequisites in context a changing global environment. One such significant commercial value is Bael tree, scientifically known Aegle marmelos, which native to semi-arid regions Pakistan. However, faces threats Pakistan due overexploitation land use. To support sustainable production practices agricultural planning, it important investigate how climate change has affected geographic distribution marmelos. Additionally, impact on its frequency remains uncertain. address these concerns, we employed modeling techniques using MaxEnt GIS predict present future favorable habitats for Based our findings, several key bioclimatic variables were identified influencers marmelos distribution. These include soil bulk density (bdod), isothermality (bio03), precipitation during warmest quarter (bio18), mean temperature wettest (bio08). Currently, potential suitable habitat spans an area approximately 396,869 square kilometers, primarily concentrated Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan deemed highly are predominantly found upper central Punjab. if persists, likely become more fragmented, resulting shift overall area. Moreover, center expected relocate towards southeast, leading increased spatial separation over time. results this research significantly contribute understanding geo-ecological aspects related Furthermore, they provide valuable recommendations protection, management, monitoring, species.

Language: Английский

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Reducing spatial resolution increased net primary productivity prediction of terrestrial ecosystems: A Random Forest approach

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 897, P. 165134 - 165134

Published: June 26, 2023

Language: Английский

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Ecological modeling, biogeography, and phenotypic analyses setting the tiger cats’ hyperdimensional niches reveal a new species

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 29, 2024

Abstract Recently, the tiger-cat species complex was split into Leopardus tigrinus and guttulus , along with other proposed schemes. We performed a detailed analysis integrating ecological modeling, biogeography, phenotype of four originally recognized subspecies— oncilla pardinoides —and presented new multidimensional niche depiction species. Species distribution models used > 1400 records from museums photographs, all checked for accuracy. Morphological data were obtained institutional/personal archives. Spotting patterns established by museum photographic/camera-trap records. Principal component showed three clearly distinct groups, Central American specimens ( ) clustering entirely within those Andes, namely group cloud forests southern Central-American Andean mountain chains (clouded tiger-cat); savannas Guiana Shield central/northeastern Brazil (savanna in lowland Atlantic Forest domain (Atlantic tiger-cat). This scheme is supported recent genetic analyses. All displayed different spotting patterns, some significant differences body measurements/proportions. The alarming reductions historic range − 50.4% to 68.2%. approach revealed elusive threatened complex.

Language: Английский

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Deciding where to put them: Sensitivity tests and independent evaluation are critical when using species distribution models to inform conservation translocations

Journal of Applied Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 61(4), P. 713 - 732

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract Conservation translocations are an important tool for combating species declines and population losses. Species distribution models (SDMs) can facilitate the selection of suitable release sites translocation programs. However, these be sensitive to several modelling decisions. In this study, we explore impacts three key decisions on Maxent developed inform reintroductions long‐toed salamander ( Ambystoma macrodactylum ) in southwestern Alberta. We specifically test sensitivity model predictions (1) type environmental variables used generate models, (2) whether background points calibrate reflects potential bias input locality records (3) choice geographic study extent. use independent presence‐absence data from extensive field survey accuracy based different Both performance were Models using local extents more accurate than those range‐wide extents. extent impacted set included species. further demonstrate ranking present a final recommendations that accounts uncertainty under both current future climatic conditions. identify expected time periods as Synthesis applications : Our adds our understanding how impact SDMs downstream conclusions while simultaneously demonstrating rigorous approach conservation planning.

Language: Английский

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