Indicators of transitions in biological systems

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 21(6), P. 905 - 919

Published: March 30, 2018

In the face of global biodiversity declines, predicting fate biological systems is a key goal in ecology. One popular approach search for early warning signals (EWSs) based on alternative stable states theory. this review, we cover theory behind nonlinearity dynamic and techniques to detect loss resilience that can indicate state transitions. We describe research done generic abundance-based instability are derived from phenomenon critical slowing down, which represent genesis EWSs research. highlight some issues facing detection such - inherently complex show low signal-to-noise ratios. then document instability, including measuring shifts spatial autocorrelation trait dynamics, discuss potential future directions detailed demographic phenotypic data. set greater field predictive ecology weigh up costs benefits simplicity vs. complexity models, how available data should steer development methods. Finally, identify unanswered questions that, if solved, could improve applicability these

Language: Английский

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Integrating dispersal proxies in ecological and environmental research in the freshwater realm

Environmental Reviews, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 25(3), P. 334 - 349

Published: April 24, 2017

Dispersal is one of the key mechanisms affecting distribution individuals, populations, and communities in nature. Despite advances study single species, it has been notoriously difficult to account for dispersal multispecies metacommunities, where potentially strong effects on community structure beyond those local environmental conditions. should thus be directly integrated both basic applied research by using proxies. Here, we review use proxies current metacommunity research, suggest new proxies, discuss how could used modelling, particularly freshwater systems. We that while traditional may still useful, formerly utilized transport geography provide useful novel insights into structuring biological also understanding utility such metacommunities highly important many fields as bioassessment, conservation planning, recolonization context restoration ecology. These have often ignored spatial dynamics focused mostly conditions changes therein. Yet, conclusions these studies change considerably if taken account.

Language: Английский

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Field tests of a general ectotherm niche model show how water can limit lizard activity and distribution

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 88(4), P. 672 - 693

Published: Aug. 3, 2018

Abstract Mechanistic forecasts of how species will respond to climate change are highly desired but difficult achieve. Because processes at different scales explicit in such models, careful assessments their predictive abilities can provide valuable insights that be relevant functionally similar species. However, there surprisingly few comprehensive field tests mechanistic niche models the literature. We applied a general, thermodynamically grounded modeling framework determine fundamental an extremely well‐studied herbivorous ectotherm, sleepy lizard Tiliqua rugosa . then compared model predictions with detailed long‐term observations included sub‐hourly data on microclimate, activity levels, home ranges, and body temperatures as well annual decadal patterns condition growth. Body temperature inferred from gridded climatic were within 10% empirically observed values explained >70% daytime across all lizards. some periods restriction by predicted desiccation level rather than temperature, metabolically driven requirements much lower potential time. Decadal trajectories growth could also values, variance being attributable whether individuals had access permanent water. Continent‐wide applications partly captured inland distribution limit, only after accounting for water limitations. Predicted changes habitat suitability under six scenarios generally positive species’ current range, varied strongly rainfall. Temperature is regarded major factor restrict abundance lizards other terrestrial ectotherms change. Yet our findings show more important constraining activity, requirements, limits ectotherms. Our results demonstrate feasibility first‐principles computation animals environmental data, providing coherent picture space

Language: Английский

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The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 89(2)

Published: Jan. 24, 2019

Abstract Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic, and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error ( FE ) usual measure success; however model predictions provide no insights into potential for improvement. In short, realized predictability specific uninformative about whether system inherently predictable or chosen poor match our observations thereof. Ideally, proficiency would be judged with respect to systems’ intrinsic predictability, highest achievable given degree which dynamics result deterministic vs. stochastic processes. Intrinsic may quantified permutation entropy PE ), model‐free, information‐theoretic complexity time series. By means simulations, we show correlation exists between estimated how stochasticity, process error, affect relationship. This relationship verified data set 461 empirical ecological We deviations from expected – related covariates quality nonlinearity dynamics. These results demonstrate theoretically grounded basis model‐free evaluation system's predictability. Identifying gap series will enable researchers understand limited by quantity their ability explain data. also provides baseline against modeling efforts can evaluated.

Language: Английский

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Unravelling the Impacts of Micropollutants in Aquatic Ecosystems

Advances in ecological research/Advances in Ecological Research, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 183 - 223

Published: Jan. 1, 2016

Language: Английский

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