Infectious disease in an era of global change

Nature Reviews Microbiology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 20(4), P. 193 - 205

Published: Oct. 13, 2021

Language: Английский

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Beyond diversity loss and climate change: Impacts of Amazon deforestation on infectious diseases and public health

Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 92(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2020

Amazonian biodiversity is increasingly threatened due to the weakening of policies for combating deforestation, especially in Brazil. Loss animal and plant species, many not yet known science, just one among negative consequences Amazon deforestation. Deforestation affects indigenous communities, riverside as well urban populations, even planetary health. Amazonia has a prominent role regulating Earth's climate, with forest loss contributing rising regional global temperatures intensification extreme weather events. These climatic conditions are important drivers emerging infectious diseases, activities associated deforestation contribute spread disease vectors. This review presents main impacts on infectious-disease dynamics public health from One Health perspective. Because Brazil holds largest area rainforest, emphasis given Brazilian scenario. Finally, potential solutions mitigate diseases presented perspectives researchers different fields.

Language: Английский

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Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study

The Lancet Planetary Health, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5(7), P. e404 - e414

Published: July 1, 2021

BackgroundMosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability population at risk of mosquito-borne across different altitudes densities has not been investigated. aim this study was quantify will influence length season estimate future, given an altitudinal gradient.MethodsUsing a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes global malaria dengue period 1951–99. We generated projections from six disease models, driven by four circulation using representative concentration pathways, three shared socioeconomic pathways.FindingsWe show that increase 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) tropical highlands African region, Eastern Mediterranean region Americas. Dengue lowlands Western Pacific 4·0 1·7, 0·2). Increases climatic both be greater rural than urban areas. epidemic belt expand towards temperate might up 4·7 billion people 2070 relative 1970–99, particularly areas.InterpretationRising mean temperature already endemic predicted expansion higher regions suggests outbreaks can occur immunologically naive public health systems unprepared. densely populated WHO South-East Asia Americas, although did account urban-heat island effects, further alter transmission.FundingUK Space Agency, Royal Society, UK National Institute Health Research, Swedish Research Council.

Language: Английский

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Climate change could shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa

The Lancet Planetary Health, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 4(9), P. e416 - e423

Published: Sept. 1, 2020

Malaria is a long-standing public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) such as dengue and chikungunya cause an under-recognised burden of disease. Many human environmental drivers affect the dynamics vector-borne diseases. In this Personal View, we argue that direct effects warming temperatures are likely to promote greater suitability for other arbovirus transmission by Aedes aegypti reduce malaria Anopheles gambiae. Environmentally driven changes disease will be complex multifaceted, but given current efforts targeted control, highlight Ae dengue, chikungunya, arboviruses potential emerging threats Africa.

Language: Английский

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The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(5)

Published: Feb. 4, 2022

The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers promoted plans that argue best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, “detecting containing emerging threats.” In other words, we take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans extensive contact with wildlife known harbor vast numbers viruses, many which not yet spilled into humans. compute annualized damages from zoonoses. explore three practical minimize impact pandemics: better surveillance pathogen spillover development global databases virus genomics serology, management trade, substantial reduction deforestation. find these primary prevention cost less than 1/20th value each year zoonoses cobenefits.

Language: Английский

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Amazon deforestation drives malaria transmission, and malaria burden reduces forest clearing

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 116(44), P. 22212 - 22218

Published: Oct. 14, 2019

Deforestation and land use change are among the most pressing anthropogenic environmental impacts. In Brazil, a resurgence of malaria in recent decades paralleled rapid deforestation settlement Amazon basin, yet evidence deforestation-driven increase remains equivocal. We hypothesize an underlying cause this ambiguity is that influence each other bidirectional causal relationships-deforestation increases through ecological mechanisms reduces socioeconomic mechanisms-and strength these relationships depends on stage transformation. test hypotheses with large geospatial dataset encompassing 795 municipalities across 13 y (2003 to 2015) show has strong positive effect incidence. Our results suggest 10% leads 3.3% incidence (∼9,980 additional cases associated 1,567 km2 lost 2008, study midpoint, Amazon-wide). The larger interior absent outer Amazonian states where little forest remains. However, only detectable after controlling for feedback burden loss, whereby increased significantly clearing, possibly mediated by human behavior or economic development. estimate 1% 1.4% decrease area cleared (∼219 fewer 3,024 2008). This socioecological between malaria, which attenuates as intensifies, illustrates intimate ties health.

Language: Английский

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Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C

eLife, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 9

Published: Sept. 15, 2020

The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission 10 vector–pathogen pairs mosquitoes ( Culex pipiens , Cx. quinquefascsiatus tarsalis others) viruses (West Nile, Eastern Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Sindbis, Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23–26°C) often wider thermal breadths (due cooler lower limits) compared pathogens predominately tropical (in previous studies). incidence human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally average summer temperature peaked 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24–25°C). Climate warming will likely shift these diseases, increasing it locations while decreasing warmer locations.

Language: Английский

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The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future

The Lancet Public Health, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 7(11), P. e942 - e965

Published: Oct. 26, 2022

In the past few decades, major public health advances have happened in Europe, with drastic decreases premature mortality and a life expectancy increase of almost 9 years since 1980. European countries some best health-care systems world. However, Europe is challenged unprecedented overlapping crises that are detrimental to human livelihoods threaten adaptive capacity, including COVID-19 pandemic, Russian invasion Ukraine, fastest-growing migrant crisis World War 2, population displacement, environmental degradation, deepening inequalities. Compared pre-industrial times, mean average surface air temperature has been 1°C higher than global increase, 2022 was hottest summer on record. As world's third largest economy contributor cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, key stakeholder response climate change responsibility opportunity lead transition becoming low-carbon healthier, more resilient society. The Lancet Countdown collaboration 44 leading researchers, established monitor links between support robust, evidence-informed protect health. Mirroring Global Countdown, this report monitors effects co-benefits action Europe. Indicators will be updated an annual basis new indicators incorporated provide broad overview help guide policies create climate-resilient future. Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change exposed how dangerously close world reaching climate-driven points no return. Alarming increases health-related hazards, vulnerabilities, exposures, impacts from across show urgent need for ambitious mitigation targets restrict rise less 1·5°C above levels effective adaptation strategies build resilience increasing threats change. Population exposure heatwaves increased by 57% 2010–19 compared 2000–09, 250% regions, putting older people, young children, people underlying chronic conditions, who do not adequate access care at high risk heat-related morbidity (indicator 1.1.2). warming observed 2000 2020 associated estimated temperature-related most regions monitored, 15·1 additional deaths per million inhabitants decade (95% CI –1·51 31·6; indicator 1.1.4). Besides direct impacts, heat also undermines people's social determinants reducing labour capacity. Labour supply highly sectors (eg, agriculture) lower 2016–19 1965–94 because 4.1.2). driving increasingly intense frequent climate-related extreme events both indirect loss infrastructure, economic costs. Between 2011 2020, 55% had extreme-to-exceptional drought 1.2.2), were record losses 2021, totalling €48 billion 4.1.1). changing conditions shifting suitability transmission various infectious diseases. An percentage coastal waters showing suitable pathogenic non-cholerae Vibrio 1.3.1), climatic dengue 30% 1950s 1.3.3), West Nile virus outbreaks 149% southern 163% central eastern 1986–2020 1951–85 1.3.2). Warmer temperatures flowering seasons several allergenic tree species, birch, olive, alder beginning 10–20 days earlier 41 ago, affecting around 40% pollen allergies 1.4.1). These interconnecting which evolving against backdrop pandemic devastating war reveal interventions sector hazards. Some progress made Europe's adaptation. 15 (68%) 22 reported having national or plans 2.1.2), 10 (45%) conducting vulnerability assessment 2.1.1). 150 cities (76%) performing city-level assessments, 118 (59·9%) reporting threatens their services 2.1.3). Population-weighted greenness countries, smallest western 2.2.2). often needs compete scarce financial resources, enactment alone sufficient advance With rise, efforts must rapidly accelerate carefully implemented alongside strategies. 1·2°C warmer magnitude interconnected warning consequences exceeding target Paris Agreement. should reach net-zero emission 2050 meet Agreement commitments. current emissions excessively 5·6 tonnes (t)CO2 person just combustion fossil fuels energy production 3.1.1). region's delayed could costing millions lives each year, only exacerbating change, but given missed deliver. continued burning led 117 000 particulate matter 2·5 μm diameter (PM2·5) pollution, transport being main 3.2). Importantly, coal contributed 12% total inefficient fuel source substantially contributes pollution 3.1.2). excessive consumption high-carbon, meat-rich diets 2·2 2019 3.4.1), food demand responsible tCO2 equivalent (eq) emitted person, accounting 37% carbon footprint EU27 (ie, 27 EU after UK left; 3.4.2). despite clear substantial opportunities action, 23 (43%) 53 analysed allocating funds deliver overall subsidies, financially constraining decarbonisation 4.2.1). implementation locally generated, sources susceptible volatile prices, reached values 2022. Ukraine shown over-reliance fuels, crisis. While trying recover responding multiple coinciding disasters, recovery hindered negative its determinants, emphasising action. To avoid catastrophic temperatures, makes it fully decarbonise power 2035, all coal-fired plants globally closing 2040. Despite date, within suggest might underway. Although engagement intersection low generally, political Parliament slightly 2014 5.3). Engagement scientific 5.1) corporate 5.4) 1990 increased. accompanied small changes system; generation renewable rate 16% year 3.1.3), if maintained, system years. important forming geopolitical situation. decades delay switching risks greater short term. Even as temporary measure, use add approximately 8000 plants, domestic 3.2), reversing gains undermining Increasing reliance would further warming, wellbeing. REPowerEU plan published March, 2022, aiming clean sources, provides hope, reaffirming leadership providing benefits, sovereignty, security, net creation equitable jobs, added benefits reduced fuels. accelerated save year. return crisis, populations undermined crucial point If designed health, wellbeing, equity focus, represent biggest policy century. Ambitious wellbeing least anthropogenic danger means cannot afford miss such opportunity.

Language: Английский

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rTPC and nls.multstart: A new pipeline to fit thermal performance curves in r

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(6), P. 1138 - 1143

Published: March 2, 2021

Abstract Quantifying thermal performance curves (TPCs) for biological rates has many applications to important problems such as predicting responses of systems—from individuals communities—to directional climate change or climatic fluctuations. Current software tools fitting TPC models data are not adequate dealing with the immense size new datasets that increasingly becoming available. We require capable tackling this issue in a simple, reproducible and accessible way. present new, pipeline r allows relatively simple 24 different using nonlinear least squares (NLLS) regression. The consists two packages— rTPC nls.multstart — provide functions which conveniently address common NLLS parameter starting values problem. also includes set values, estimate key parameters calculate uncertainty around estimates well fitted model whole. demonstrate how can be combined other packages robustly reproducibly fit multiple mathematical at once. In addition, we show selection averaging, weighted bootstrapping easily implemented within pipeline. This provides flexible approach makes challenging task wide range users across ecology evolution.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change and Vectorborne Diseases

New England Journal of Medicine, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 387(21), P. 1969 - 1978

Published: Nov. 24, 2022

T he effects of climate change are widespread and rapidly intensifying largely driven by greenhouse-gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. 1 Global mean temperatures have already increased 1.1°C since 1900, with most the having occurred in past 50 years.The extent is extreme highland polar regions (Fig. 1), tropical creeping closer to thermal limits many organisms.Given current policies actions, a warming 2.5°C 2.9°C or more end this century expected. 2arming other manifestations -including changes precipitation, flooding some areas drought others -have important implications for vectorborne diseases through their on pathogens, vectors, hosts, as well our ability prevent treat these 2).Yet attributing distribution frequency vectors challenging because factors, including land-use changes, 3 abundance reservoir 4 control measures, 5 also contribute changes.Furthermore, it may be difficult distinguish between natural variability human-influenced change, 6 although scientific techniques do so emerging.Despite complexities, clear that components disease systems, highly responsive varied environments they inhabit observed rates at given locations often associated concomitant local climate.For example, affect behavior, physiologic characteristics, life history both pathogens behavior hosts definitive hosts.The interactions among temperature, vector, pathogen can risk human-to-human spread spillover humans hosts.Thermal performance curves illustrate ways which temperature affects physiological traits determine rate susceptible population.These commonly used predict potential rising resulting systems. 7Curves individual system must overlap order transmission occur.Thermal adaptation, acclimation climate, potentially shift tolerance limits, expansion geographic range certain diseases.Depending adapt, no longer carry new ones climate-mediated ecosystem bring different human together.

Language: Английский

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