A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 11(4), P. 1421 - 1442

Published: April 13, 2018

Abstract. Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility coherence for future projections. They quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- among-model uncertainty, assessed fits historical data, provided ensemble projections of change under specified scenarios. Given speed magnitude anthropogenic marine environment consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, industries, society, time is ripe similar comparisons models fisheries ecosystems. Here, we describe Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part Inter-Sectoral Impact (ISIMIP), which a cross-sectoral network impact modellers. complexity ecosystem, this class has substantial heterogeneity purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), spatial extent. This reflects lack unified understanding ecosystem implies that assemblage all more likely include greater number relevant than any single model. The current Fish-MIP designed allow these heterogeneous be forced with common System (ESM) Coupled Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs prescribed scenarios historic (from 1950s) (to 2100) periods; it will adapted CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) iterations. It also describes standardized set each participating produce. enables broad characterization differences between uncertainties within when assessing impacts ecosystems services they provide. systematic generation, collation, comparison results from inform an range plausible changes improve our capacity define convey strengths weaknesses model-based advice states fisheries. Ultimately, represents step towards bringing together modelling community produce consistent medium- long-term

Language: Английский

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Projected declines in global DHA availability for human consumption as a result of global warming

AMBIO, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 49(4), P. 865 - 880

Published: Sept. 12, 2019

Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is an essential, omega-3, long-chain polyunsaturated fatty that a key component of cell membranes and plays vital role in vertebrate brain function. The capacity to synthesize DHA limited mammals, despite its critical neurological development health. For humans, most commonly obtained by eating fish. Global warming predicted reduce the de novo synthesis algae, at base aquatic food chains, which expected transferred We estimated global quantity (total per capita) currently available from commercial (wild caught aquaculture) recreational fisheries. potential decrease amount fish for human consumption was modeled using effect established scenarios on algal production ensuing transfer conclude increase water temperature could result, depending climate scenario location, ~ 10 58% loss globally 2100, potentially limiting availability this nutrient humans. Inland waters show greatest climate-warming-induced decreases consumption. projected as result would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations (e.g., fetuses, infants), especially inland Africa (due low reported capita availability). estimated, worst-case scenario, decline levels where 96% population may not have access sufficient DHA.

Language: Английский

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Seagrass in Southeast Asia: a review of status and knowledge gaps, and a road map for conservation

Botanica Marina, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 61(3), P. 269 - 288

Published: May 30, 2018

Abstract Southeast Asia has the highest diversity of seagrass species and habitat types, but basic information on habitats is still lacking. This review examines known distribution, extent, diversity, research knowledge gaps seagrasses in by biogeographic region Marine Ecoregions World (MEOW). The extent meadows ~36,762.6 km 2 this likely an underestimate as some ecoregions were not well-represented updated was There a paucity from Western Coral Triangle Province, with no areal data available for Indonesian regions Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, Maluku Islands, West Papua. Regional output increased last two decades, trend towards more experimental, rather than descriptive research. However, there are socio-cultural-economic themed research, despite growing awareness importance seagrass-human relationships region. Obstacles to advancing conservation rooted either lack expertise training or failure effective management policies. We propose roadmap conservation, suggested solutions, including 1) encouraging collaboration between institutions scientists build capacity share knowledge; 2) engaging policymakers governments encourage science-based policies; 3) communities raise foster stewardship

Language: Английский

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Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: March 4, 2019

Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for Baltic Sea Basin and North Region Assessment, knowledge from available literature about future scenario simulations biogeochemical cycles in their uncertainties is assessed. Uncertainties these projections are caused by climate model (including global models experimental setup), unknown nutrient load greenhouse gas emissions (or concentrations) natural variability. The determination reduction important issues marine management. For instance, management would like to know coupled climate-environmental whether abatement strategies Action Plan (BSAP) will meet its objectives restored water quality status or additional measures required. results an accompanied multi-model study indicate that implementation BSAP lead a significant improvement environmental Sea. However, large sources need be understood draw conclusions effectiveness measures. Our suggests biggest (listed descending order importance) (1) current bioavailable loads land atmosphere setup spin up strategy), (2) differences between models, particular, with respect mean sea level rise cycle, (3) differing model-specific responses simulated long-term changes external region, (4) emissions. Regular assessments models' skill compared observations) region spread (differences among projected changes) dynamical downscaling methods recommended.

Language: Английский

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From plate to plug: The impact of offshore renewables on European fisheries and the role of marine spatial planning

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 158, P. 112108 - 112108

Published: Jan. 13, 2022

Language: Английский

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Balanced harvest: concept, policies, evidence, and management implications

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 29(3), P. 711 - 733

Published: June 11, 2019

Balanced harvest has been proposed to reduce fishing impact on ecosystems while simultaneously maintaining or even increasing fishery yield. The concept attracted broad interest, but also received criticisms. In this paper, we examine the theory, modelling studies, empirical evidence, legal and policy frameworks, management implications of balanced harvest. examination reveals unresolved issues challenges from both scientific perspectives. We summarize current knowledge address common questions relevant idea. Major conclusions include: can be expressed in several ways implemented multiple levels, with different approaches e.g. métier based management; it explicitly bridges fisheries conservation goals accordance international frameworks; studies limited evidence reveal that ecosystem structure increase aggregate yield; extent is not purely a question, social choice; transition may incur short-term economic costs, long-term, results will vary across individual for society overall; its application, adopted at strategic tactical levels need full implementation, could aim “partially-balanced” Further objective discussions research subject are needed move toward supporting practical approach fisheries.

Language: Английский

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Modelling the bioeconomy: Emerging approaches to address policy needs

Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 330, P. 129801 - 129801

Published: Nov. 23, 2021

With its update of the Bioeconomy Strategy and Green Deal, European Commission committed itself to a transformation towards sustainable climate-neutral Union. This process is characterised with an enormous complexity, which policymaking needs acknowledge for designing transition pathways. Modelling can support in dealing uncertainty complexity. article reviews emerging new developments approaches model development bioeconomy. We focused our review on how bioeconomy modelling addresses key enabling factors related (i) climate change, (ii) biodiversity, (iii) circular use biomass, (iv) consumer behaviour biomass bioproducts use, (v) innovation technological change. find that existing frameworks offer large possibilities extensions considerations analysing short-run impacts change circularity, lesser degree we identify developing further models. However, addressing processes societal changes more challenging existing/conventional approaches, as they specifically relate innovations transform economic structures consumers learn their preferences what kind dynamics are be expected. indicate techniques such Agent-Based could improve complement efforts by allowing consideration structural and, generally, metabolism. approach eclecticism asks better description targets, sound reflection meaning time horizons closer cooperation between different research communities. Furthermore, it will benefit from big data artificial intelligence expect valuable guideposts future strategies.

Language: Английский

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Management Strategy Evaluation: Allowing the Light on the Hill to Illuminate More Than One Species

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: June 22, 2021

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a simulation approach that serves as “light on the hill” ( Smith, 1994 ) to test options for marine management, monitoring, and assessment against simulated ecosystem fishery dynamics, including uncertainty in ecological processes observations. MSE has become key method evaluate trade-offs between management objectives communicate with decision makers. Here we describe how why continuing grow from single species one relevant multi-species ecosystem-based management. In particular, different modeling approaches can fit within process meet particular natural resource needs. We present four case studies illustrate expanding include considerations models ‘operating models’ (i.e., virtual worlds), simulate assessment, harvest control rules, tradeoffs via performance metrics. highlight United States related fisheries regulations climate, which support NOAA’s policy goals Ecosystem Based Fishery Roadmap Climate Science Strategy but vary complexity of population, ecosystem, representation. emphasize methods, tool development, lessons learned are beyond States, additional benefits relative single-species approaches.

Language: Английский

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Implementing the precautionary approach into fisheries management: Biomass reference points and uncertainty buffers

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 23(1), P. 73 - 92

Published: Aug. 21, 2021

Abstract The precautionary approach to fisheries management advocates for risk‐averse strategies that include biological reference points and account scientific uncertainty (i.e. process, model observation uncertainty). In this regard, two approaches have been recommended: (a) biomass safeguard against low stock biomass, (b) buffers reduce the catch limit as a function of uncertainty. This study compares effectiveness these in recovering over‐exploited fish stocks. We evaluate performance more than 80 harvest control rules (HCRs) within stochastic strategy evaluation ( MSE ) framework three stocks with contrasting life‐history parameters under various levels results show both risk overfishing at expense expected yield. risk‐yield trade‐off strongly depends on HCRs, species, well level Nevertheless, some combinations threshold lead favourable other rules. elucidates multiple factors affecting highlights key features HCRs management.

Language: Английский

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Environmental biomonitoring of reef fish community structure with eDNA metabarcoding in the Coral Triangle

Environmental Biology of Fishes, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 104(8), P. 887 - 903

Published: July 28, 2021

Language: Английский

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