Protecting Biodiversity (in All Its Complexity): New Models and Methods

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 35(12), P. 1119 - 1128

Published: Sept. 22, 2020

Language: Английский

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Integrated Modeling to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Coupled Social-Ecological Systems in Alaska

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Jan. 14, 2020

The Alaska CLimate Integrated Modeling (ACLIM) project represents a comprehensive, multi-year, interdisciplinary effort to characterize and climate-driven changes the Eastern Bering Sea ecosystem, from physics fishing communities. Results ACLIM are being used understand how different regional fisheries management approaches can help promote adaptation sustain fish shellfish populations inform managers fishery dependent communities of risks associated with future climate scenarios. relies on iterative communications outreach that has informed selection This approach ensures research team focuses policy relevant scenarios explore realistic options for Within each cycle, continues improve: methods downscaling models, climate-enhanced biological socio-economic modeling, strategy evaluation within common analytical framework. evolving nature framework improved understanding system responses feedbacks considered projections continue reflect objectives bodies. multi-model projection facilitates quantification relative contributions forcing scenario, parameter, structural uncertainty between models. Ensemble means variance models informs risk assessments under first phase conditions end 21st century complete, catch core species baseline (status quo) two alternative modeling serves as guide multidisciplinary integrated impact decision making in other large marine ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Increasing the uptake of multispecies models in fisheries management

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 80(2), P. 243 - 257

Published: Jan. 23, 2023

Abstract Multispecies models have existed in a fisheries context since at least the 1970s, but despite much exploration, advancement, and consideration of multispecies models, there remain limited examples their operational use fishery management. Given that species fleet interactions are inherently problems push towards ecosystem-based management, lack more regular is both surprising compelling. We identify impediments hampering provide recommendations to address those impediments. These are: (1) engage stakeholders managers early often; (2) improve messaging communication about various uses models; (3) move forward with management under current authorities while exploring inclusive governance structures flexible decision-making frameworks for handling tradeoffs; (4) evaluate when modelling approach may be appropriate; (5) tailor model clearly defined purpose; (6) develop interdisciplinary solutions promoting applications; (7) make guidelines available review application; (8) ensure code well documented reproducible. draw from global assemblage subject matter experts who participated workshop entitled “Multispecies Modeling Applications Fisheries Management”.

Language: Английский

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Combining scientific survey and commercial catch data to map fish distribution

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 79(4), P. 1133 - 1149

Published: Feb. 15, 2022

Abstract Developing Species Distribution Models (SDM) for marine exploited species is a major challenge in fisheries ecology. Classical modelling approaches typically rely on fish research survey data. They benefit from standardized sampling design and controlled catchability, but they usually occur once or twice year may sample relatively small number of spatial locations. Spatial monitoring commercial data (based logbooks crossed with Vessel Monitoring Systems) can provide an additional extensive source to inform distribution. We propose hierarchical framework integrating both sources while accounting preferential (PS) From simulations, we demonstrate that PS should be accounted estimation when actually strong. When far exceed scientific data, the later bring little information predictions areas sampled by low fishing intensity validation dataset assess integrated model consistency. applied three demersal (hake, sole, squids) Bay Biscay emphasize contrasted account several fleets varying catchabilities behaviours.

Language: Английский

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Towards vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all: learning from the last 30 years to inform the next 30 years

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 33(2), P. 317 - 347

Published: March 4, 2023

A common goal among fisheries science professionals, stakeholders, and rights holders is to ensure the persistence resilience of vibrant fish populations sustainable, equitable in diverse aquatic ecosystems, from small headwater streams offshore pelagic waters. Achieving this requires a complex intersection management, recognition interconnections people, place, that govern these tightly coupled socioecological sociotechnical systems. The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) convenes every four years provides unique global forum debate discuss threats, issues, opportunities facing fisheries. 2021 WFC meeting, hosted remotely Adelaide, Australia, marked 30th year since first meeting was held Athens, Greece, provided an opportunity reflect on progress made past 30 provide guidance for future. We assembled team individuals involved with Adelaide reflected major challenges faced over years, discussed toward overcoming those challenges, then used themes emerged during identify issues improve sustainability world's next years. Key future needs identified include: rethinking management systems modelling approaches, modernizing integrating assessment information systems, being responsive flexible addressing persistent emerging threats fisheries, mainstreaming human dimension governance, policy compliance, achieving equity inclusion also number cross-cutting including better understanding role as nutrition hungry world, adapting climate change, embracing transdisciplinarity, respecting Indigenous knowledge thinking ahead foresight science, working together across scales. By reflecting about future, we aim our mutual sustaining sustainable benefit all. hope prospective can serve guide (i) assess towards lofty (ii) refine path input new voices approaches stewardship.

Language: Английский

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Global habitat predictions to inform spatiotemporal fisheries management: Initial steps within the framework

Marine Policy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 164, P. 106155 - 106155

Published: April 29, 2024

Tuna Regional Fishery Management Organizations (tRFMOs) are increasingly interested in spatiotemporal management as a tool to reduce interaction rates with vulnerable species.We use blue shark (Prionace glauca) case study demonstrate the critical first steps implementation process, highlighting how predictions of global habitat for life stages can be transformed into publicly-accessible spatial bycatch mitigation tool.By providing examples possible goals and an associated threshold identify essential habitats, we show these key areas represent relatively low percentage oceanic area on monthly basis (16-24% between 50 • S 60 N), yet have high potential protection efficiency (~ 42%) if fishing effort is redistributed elsewhere.While has demonstrable sharks effectively mitigate mortality sensitive stages, inherent challenges sequential that require careful consideration by tRFMOs work proceeds.We also discuss our single-species framework could easily extended multispecies approach assigning relative conservation risk before layering model integrated analysis.Such broader application address related reducing ecosystem effects pave way efficient fisheries co-management using ecosystem-based approach.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal and interannual variation in spatio-temporal models for index standardization and phenology studies

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 77(5), P. 1879 - 1892

Published: April 10, 2020

Abstract Climate change is rapidly affecting the seasonal timing of spatial demographic processes. Consequently, resource managers require information from models that simultaneously measure seasonal, interannual, and variation. We present a spatio-temporal model includes annual, variation in density then highlight two important uses: (i) standardizing data are spatially unbalanced within multiple seasons (ii) identifying interannual changes (phenology) population demonstrate these uses with contrasting case studies: three bottom trawl surveys for yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) Northwest Atlantic Ocean 1985 to 2017 pelagic tows copepodite stage 3+ copepod (Calanus glacialis/marshallae) densities eastern Bering Sea 1993 2016. The analysis illustrates how can be used infer hot spots an area not sampled one or more surveys. assimilates seasonally samples estimate annual index abundance identifies positive correlation between this cold-pool extent. conclude by discussing additional potential emphasize their ability identify climate-driven shifts fish movement ecosystem productivity.

Language: Английский

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Playing the detective: Using multispecies approaches to estimate natural mortality rates

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 249, P. 106229 - 106229

Published: Jan. 20, 2022

Stock assessment models often assume natural mortality rates (M) are constant and attribute the variability in a stock's overall rate to fishing recruitment. However, this assumption may not be valid if M varies due both direct indirect trophic interactions as well environmental variability. This is particularly case when there substantial changes overlapping abundances of key predator or prey species, extreme impacting an ecosystem. Hence multispecies (MSMs) used explicitly capture variations improve ability discriminate between versus mortality, plus quantify influences on broader ecosystem, consistent with ecosystem approach (EAF). There growing number approaches modelling MSMs, developed for tactical applications requiring higher level rigour consideration uncertainty than broad strategic models. We overview Models Intermediate Complexity Ecosystem assessments (MICE) use four studies highlight lessons learnt, provide some guidelines going forward. identify ten application categories MSMs (incorporating explicit representation components M), advance EAF. These include: (1) by age over time inputs single species stock models, because recognition that predation (M2) large variable portion total M; (2) inform reference points; (3) operating Management Strategy Evaluation frameworks; (4) simulation test management levers; (5) optimise harvest strategies; (6) bycatch 'choke' species; (7) represent forward project trajectories model recovery scenarios threatened protected (8) correctly sources support efforts; (9) pest (10) (e.g. habitat alterations). Using well-constructed specify reduces bias parameters, points projections increasingly important ecosystems respond more changing climate.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal joint species distribution modelling: A basis function approach

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(8), P. 2150 - 2164

Published: July 10, 2023

Abstract We introduce community‐level basis function models (CBFMs) as an approach for spatiotemporal joint distribution modelling. CBFMs can be viewed related to latent variable models, where the variables are replaced by a set of pre‐specified functions which common across species. In CBFM, coefficients that link each species treated random slopes. As such, CBFM formulated have similar structure generalised additive model. This allows us adapt existing techniques fit efficiently. used variety reasons, such inferring patterns habitat use in space and time, understanding how residual covariation between varies spatially and/or temporally, predictions species‐ quantities. A simulation study application data from bottom trawl survey conducted U.S. Northeast shelf show achieve sometimes better predictive performance compared approaches modelling, while being computationally more scalable.

Language: Английский

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Identifying the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of mixed fisheries to inform multispecies management in the Yellow and Bohai Seas

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 285, P. 107351 - 107351

Published: April 3, 2025

Language: Английский

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