Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 281(1779), P. 20132612 - 20132612

Published: Jan. 29, 2014

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated near future. Although recent work suggests that changes variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than to mean, much climate change research ecology has focused impacts mean change. Here, we couple fine-grained projections (2050-2059) thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate contrast with those a simple model. We show based alone differ substantially incorporating variation, concert. most increases at temperatures, effect variance together yields range responses, temperate greatest risk declines. Our highlights importance using temporal incorporate full extent when assessing projecting performance.

Language: Английский

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Insects in Fluctuating Thermal Environments

Annual Review of Entomology, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 60(1), P. 123 - 140

Published: Oct. 23, 2014

All climate change scenarios predict an increase in both global temperature means and the magnitude of seasonal diel variation. The nonlinear relationship between biological processes that fluctuating temperatures lead to physiological, life history, ecological consequences for ectothermic insects diverge from those predicted constant temperatures. Fluctuating remain within permissive ranges generally improve performance. By contrast, which extend stressful may have either positive impacts, allowing repair damage accrued during exposure thermal extremes, or negative impacts cumulative successive exposures. We discuss mechanisms underlying these differing effects. could be used enhance weaken applied rearing programs, any prediction insect performance field-including models population performance-must account effect

Language: Английский

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Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 4(8), P. 1044 - 1059

Published: May 25, 2020

Language: Английский

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Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 11(4), P. e0005568 - e0005568

Published: April 27, 2017

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand seasonal geographic range transmission by Aedes aegypti Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic models derive predictions for how probability magnitude chikungunya, dengue change with mean temperature, we show that these are well matched human case data. Across all three viruses, data both occurs between 18–34°C maximal occurring in a from 26–29°C. Controlling population size two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent based on our model is an important predictor occurrence incidence. Risk maps indicate tropical subtropical regions suitable extended or year-round transmission, but temperate areas limited at most months per year even if vectors present. Such brief windows limit likelihood major following disease introduction zones.

Language: Английский

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Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 22(10), P. 1690 - 1708

Published: July 8, 2019

Abstract Mosquito‐borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly nonlinearly to temperature therefore climate change. Here, we review how trait‐based approaches can synthesise mechanistically predict the dependence transmission across vectors, pathogens, environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species – including globally important like malaria, dengue, Zika synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23–29ºC declining zero below 9–23ºC above 32–38ºC. Different traits restricted low versus high temperatures, effects on both parasite species. Temperate exhibit broader thermal ranges cooler minima optima than tropical pathogens. Among malaria Ross River virus had lower (25–26ºC) while dengue viruses highest (29ºC) optima. expect warming increase but decrease Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models field transmission, combining control measures, incorporating trait variation variation, investigating adaptation migration.

Language: Английский

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The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease

The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 19(9), P. e302 - e312

Published: June 18, 2019

Language: Английский

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What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

Annual Review of Entomology, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 61(1), P. 433 - 451

Published: Dec. 15, 2015

Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic and whether they contribute much adaptation. Under change, involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key under dry hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs insects showing other life cycle responses, threatening persistence. In response stressful climatic conditions, also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening acclimation. Environmental experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations influence acclimation, although evidence latter remains weak. Costs constraints patterns plasticity clades, understood within field contexts. their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory.

Language: Английский

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Scientists' warning on climate change and insects

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 93(1)

Published: Nov. 7, 2022

Abstract Climate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but also exacerbates harmful other human‐mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms threats species preservation, as well preservation an array ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Among affected groups animals insects—central components many ecosystems—for which climate change pervasive from individuals communities. In this contribution scientists' warning series, we summarize effect gradual global surface temperature increase insects, physiology, behavior, phenology, distribution, and interactions, increased frequency duration extreme events such hot cold spells, fires, droughts, floods these parameters. We warn that, if no action taken better understand reduce will drastically our ability build a sustainable future based healthy, functional ecosystems. discuss perspectives relevant ways conserve insects face change, offer several key recommendations management approaches that can adopted, policies should pursued, involvement general public protection effort.

Language: Английский

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Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 370(1665), P. 20130551 - 20130551

Published: Feb. 17, 2015

Arguably one of the most important effects climate change is potential impact on human health. While this likely to take many forms, implications for future transmission vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution global disease burden, are both extremely and highly uncertain. In part, owing not only data limitations methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models projections, but also, perhaps crucially, multitude epidemiological, ecological socio-economic factors that drive transmission, complexity has generated considerable debate over past 10-15 years. review, we seek elucidate current knowledge around topic, identify key themes uncertainties, evaluate open research questions and, offer some solutions field. Although these ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems.

Language: Английский

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Survive a Warming Climate: Insect Responses to Extreme High Temperatures

Annual Review of Entomology, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 66(1), P. 163 - 184

Published: Sept. 1, 2020

Global change includes a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperatures (EHTs), which influence insects at almost all levels. The number studies showing ecological importance EHTs has risen recent years, but knowledge is rather dispersed contemporary literature. In this article, we review biological effects actually experienced field, i.e., when coupled to fluctuating thermal regimes. First, characterize field. Then, summarize impacts on various levels processes allowing buffer EHTs. Finally, argue that mechanisms leading positive or negative can only be resolved from integrative approaches considering natural Thermal extremes, perhaps more than gradual mean temperature, drive insect responses climate change, with crucial pest management biodiversity conservation.

Language: Английский

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