Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(11), P. 3711 - 3727

Published: Feb. 25, 2022

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of globe. Understanding impact climate change on foundational marine species needed to provide insight ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted expand their ranges further north in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses southern range edge modelling forest distributions according three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted environment), cryotolerant with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited and cryophobic temperate conditions) forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, current extent suitable contemporary future forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5). Our analyses indicate that already ubiquitous north, thus cannot change, resulting an overall loss due severe contractions. within basin, however, remain largely stable notable exceptions some areas, particularly Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where extirpated edge, ecosystem shifts towards regimes mid latitudes, though many aspects these shifts, such as total biomass depth range, be field validated. results first global synthesis changes pan-Arctic coastal ecosystems suggest transitions unavoidable now areas.

Language: Английский

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Drivers of change in Arctic fjord socio-ecological systems: Examples from the European Arctic

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Fjord systems are transition zones between land and sea, resulting in complex dynamic environments. They of particular interest the Arctic as they harbour ecosystems inhabited by a rich range species provide many societal benefits. The key drivers change European (i.e., Greenland, Svalbard, Northern Norway) fjord socio-ecological reviewed here, structured into five categories: cryosphere (sea ice, glacier mass balance, glacial riverine discharge), physics (seawater temperature, salinity, light), chemistry (carbonate system, nutrients), biology (primary production, biomass, richness), social (governance, tourism, fisheries). data available for past present state these drivers, well future model projections, analysed companion paper. Changes to two at base most interactions within fjords, seawater temperature will have significant profound consequences on fjords. This is because even though governance may be effective mitigating/adapting local disruptions caused changing climate, there possibly nothing that can done halt melting glaciers, warming waters, all downstream changes have. review provides first transdisciplinary synthesis systems. Knowledge what are, how interact with one another, should more expedient focus research needs adapting Arctic.

Language: Английский

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A species distribution model of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera: Worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(3)

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract Worldwide climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of species is special concern when it involves habitat‐forming species. In coastal environment, large Laminarian algae—kelps—form key ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera most widely distributed provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish main drivers future distributional changes on a global scale use them predict habitat suitability. Using models (SDM), we examined M . under different emission scenarios with focus Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain our simulations important factors controlling kelp forest across spatial scales, explored suite environmental variables validated predictions derived from SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was single variable explaining suitable for Under climate change scenarios, always observed decrease at low latitudes, while an increase detected other regions, mostly high latitudes. Along Pacific, upper range contraction −17.08° S latitude 2090–2100 RCP8.5 scenario, implying loss suitability throughout coast Peru poleward −27.83° Chile. area Northern Chile where complete predicted by model, natural stands are heavy exploitation. The will take place worldwide: Significant impacts marine biodiversity functioning likely. Furthermore, harbinger massive socio‐ecological systems Pacific.

Language: Английский

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Climate‐driven shifts in kelp forest composition reduce carbon sequestration potential

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(18), P. 5514 - 5531

Published: June 13, 2022

The potential contribution of kelp forests to blue carbon sinks is currently great interest but interspecific variance has received no attention. In the temperate Northeast Atlantic, forest composition changing due climate-driven poleward range shifts cold Laminaria digitata and hyperborea warm ochroleuca. To understand how this might affect sequestration (CSP) ecosystem, we quantified differences in export decomposition alongside changes detrital photosynthesis biochemistry. We found that while exports up 71% more per plant, it decomposes 155% faster than its boreal congeners. Elemental stoichiometry polyphenolic content cannot fully explain turnover, which may be attributable contrasting tissue toughness or unknown biochemical structural defenses. Faster causes photosynthetic apparatus L. ochroleuca overwhelmed 20 days after lose integrity 36 days, detritus species maintains assimilation. Depending on photoenvironment, could further exacerbate via a positive feedback loop. Through compositional change such as predicted prevalence ochroleuca, ocean warming therefore reduce CSP marine forests.

Language: Английский

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Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

Abstract Emerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly‐warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial high seas provides a 16‐year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge gaps, characterizing areas of highest uncertainty is key first step. Marine ecosystem model ensembles that project future fish distributions could inform fisheries, but Arctic‐specific variation has not yet been examined global ensembles. We use Fisheries Ecosystem Intercomparison Project ensemble driven by two Earth System Models (ESMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 SSP5‐8.5) illustrate current state among biomass projections over duration moratorium. The models generally increases more northern ecosystems decreases southern ecosystems, wide intra‐model exceeds projection means most cases. ESMs show opposite trends main environmental drivers. Therefore, these are currently insufficient policy actions. Investment sustained monitoring improving modeling capacity, especially sea dynamics, urgently needed. Concurrently, it will be necessary develop frameworks making precautionary decisions continued uncertainty. conclude researchers should transparent about uncertainty, presenting as source “answers,” bounding plausible, policy‐relevant questions assess trade‐offs mitigate risks.

Language: Английский

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Arctic and Subarctic marine heatwaves and their ecological impacts

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13

Published: Feb. 19, 2025

The Arctic and Subarctic seas are predicted to become hotspots for marine heatwaves (MHWs). High-latitude ecosystems face unique consequences from accelerated warming sea ice loss, challenging species adapted cold conditions. We review the literature on MHW characteristics ecological impacts in seas, contrast between Bering Sea Barents Sea. uncover pervasive of MHWs across widely different organism groups, including benthic foundation species, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, seabirds, mammals. marginal especially prevalent areas experiencing retreat, such as seasonal zones, highlighting complex interplay dynamics. Overall, few studies have documented high-latitude ecosystems, with notable exception Chukchi 2017–2019. Many their narrow thermal preferences, appear vulnerable MHWs, they might not access climate refugia, while boreal benefit MHWs. Sessile kelp seagrasses, at risk during although evidence remains limited. Reproductive failure mass mortality events been several Pacific (e.g., crabs). observed ecosystem-wide repercussions northern shifts plankton communities affecting entire food web. responses still fully understood, a need further research assess direct indirect various taxa improve predictive models better management conservation strategies. can also large ecosystem services socio-ecological systems, example, closures economically valuable culturally important fisheries, seen Alaska, degradation traditional ice-hunting practices, compromised wellbeing coastal communities. Large abrupt changes following underscore urgent adaptive strategies ongoing change.

Language: Английский

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Differential climate change impacts on spatial distribution of two bartail flathead stocks in the yellow and bohai seas: a MaxEnt model-based prediction

Hydrobiologia, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 12, 2025

Language: Английский

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Impacts of deglaciation on biodiversity and ecosystem function

Published: May 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Climate change and related expanding shipping activity are predicted to increase the risk of aquatic invasive species arriving in Arctic. The goal this study was predict distribution an interconnected set native non-native primary producers secondary consumers changing context. Groups were selected represent a benthic coastal Arctic food web Hudson Bay, including kelps eelgrass as (Alaria esculenta, Agarum clathratum, Saccharina latissima, Laminaria solidungula, Zostera marina), amphipods (Gammarus oceanicus G. setosus), fish (sculpins Gymnacanthus tricuspis, Myoxocephalus scorpius, M. scorpioides, quadricornis). Ensemble models used these several analogue (species known be elsewhere that can considered analogues Bay species): Dumontia contorta, Undaria pinnatifida, Sargassum muticum, Codium fragile (primary producers); Gammarus tigrinus consumer); Artediellus atlanticus A. uncinatus (secondary consumers). Predicted habitat suitability trophic groups overlaid under current future climate scenarios assess areas through time. direction potential shifts varies by identity composition) but not group. Overall relationships roles ecosystem likely maintained over time because while some decrease their ranges (e.g., quadricornis), others same scorpius). Overlap (or lack thereof) between pairs expected vary enabling novel interactions competition) space This approach will help identify high-risk for level changes with response global warming.

Language: Английский

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Whole genome population structure of North Atlantic kelp confirms high‐latitude glacial refugia

Molecular Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 31(24), P. 6473 - 6488

Published: Oct. 6, 2022

Coastal refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 years ago) have been hypothesized at high latitudes in North Atlantic, suggesting marine populations persisted through cycles of glaciation and are potentially adapted to local environments. Here, whole-genome sequencing was used test whether Atlantic coastal kelp Alaria esculenta survived area southwestern Greenland Maximum. We present first annotated genome for A. call variant positions 54 individuals from Canada, Greenland, Faroe Islands, Norway Ireland. Differentiation across reflected ~1.9 million single nucleotide polymorphisms, which further revealed mixed ancestry Islands between putative Greenlandic European lineages. Time-calibrated organellar phylogenies suggested were established last interglacial period more than 100,000 ago, that population probably following Patterns statistics, including diversity, minor allele frequencies, heterozygosity linkage disequilibrium decay, nonetheless reduced Canadian small effective sizes most recent glaciation. Functional differentiation exon read coverage, expansions unique 337 exons representing 162 genes, a modest degree loss (103 56 genes). Altogether, our genomic results provide strong evidence resilient past climatic fluctuations related glaciations high-latitude already conditions as result.

Language: Английский

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