Microgeographic variation in demography and thermal regimes stabilize regional abundance of a widespread freshwater fish DOI Creative Commons
Brian K. Gallagher, Dylan J. Fraser

Ecological Applications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 34(2)

Published: Dec. 10, 2023

Abstract Predicting the persistence of species under climate change is an increasingly important objective in ecological research and management. However, biotic abiotic heterogeneity can drive asynchrony population responses at small spatial scales, complicating species‐level assessments. For widely distributed consisting many fragmented populations, such as brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), understanding drivers dynamics improve predictions range‐wide impacts. We analyzed demographic time series from mark–recapture surveys 11 natural populations eastern Canada over 13 years to examine extent, drivers, consequences fine‐scale variation. The focal were genetically differentiated, occupied a area (~25 km 2 ) with few human impacts, experienced similar conditions. Recruitment was highly asynchronous, weakly related variables showed population‐specific relationships other processes, generating diverse dynamics. In contrast, individual growth mostly synchronized among driven by shared positive relationship stream temperature. Outputs models unrelated four five hypothesized (recruitment, growth, reproductive success, phylogenetic distance), but variation groundwater inputs strongly influenced temperature regimes stock–recruitment relationships. Finally, generated portfolio effect that stabilized regional abundance. Our results demonstrated demographics habitat diversity microgeographic scales play significant role moderating change. Moreover, we suggest absence activities within study streams preserved contributed abundance, while eased monitoring increased likelihood detecting asynchrony. Therefore, anthropogenic degradation, landscape context, scale must be considered when developing management strategies monitor maintain are diverse, stable, resilient

Language: Английский

Seasonal resilience of temperate estuarine fish in response to climate change DOI Creative Commons
Zhaopeng Zhang, Yuanchao Wang, Cui Liang

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 158, P. 111518 - 111518

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

To date, the intricacies and efficacy of how periodic seasonal environmental fluctuations affect fish populations in biogeography context profound climate change remain to be elucidated. Collected monitoring data on resources temperate estuary provide an excellent opportunity assess effects functional assemblages under change. We first developed a framework for predicting habitat suitability different scenarios (SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5) 12 Yangtze by examining affinities estuarine fishes. then summarized multidimensional responses (HSRs) discussed possible drivers mechanisms underlying these changes. The results suggest that acidity may decline future as warms, endangering ecosystem many species depend on. Prospective have impact population HSRs through redistribution, area changes, centroid migration suitable habitats; nevertheless, affinity factors limited distinguishing patterns response spring. Fish (5 populations) (11 assemblages) exhibit robust adaptations or non-adaptations when seasons change, given their area. Furthermore, projections indicate majority centroids responses, migrating northeast spring southeast autumn. By decentralizing risk scales, resilience several (5/12) (11/16) is revealed time. Efforts mitigate risks safeguard should take forecasts indicative information into account.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Evaluating species richness, turnover, and range shifts under climate change for fluvial fishes in Northeastern and Midwestern USA DOI Creative Commons
H.X. YU, Dana M. Infante, Arthur R. Cooper

et al.

Ecological Processes, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: April 23, 2025

Abstract Background Fluvial fish habitat in the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. is substantially affected by natural landscape factors anthropogenic stressors, with climate change expected to alter influences exacerbate stressor effects. To conserve fluvial species future, it crucial understand which habitats will be most strongly influenced changing climate, are sensitive change, how changes individual affect entire assemblages. answer these questions, we modeled distributions under projected could suitability of for 55 widely distributed fishes differing thermal preferences region. Using boosted regression tree models, predicted at a stream reach scale using four contemporary variables including annual mean air temperature, precipitation, variation monthly temperature precipitation along seven variables. We then used values from eight general circulation models (GCMs) during 2041–2080 evaluate potential patterns richness, turnover, range shifts across study Results Most cold-water cool-water were lose habitat; however, loss also occurred certain small-bodied warm-water species. The percentage richness all reaches ranged − 40.4 33.93%, regions major losses occurring southern portions coast Midwest regions. Species turnover 0 43.5% substantial upper Midwest. Conclusions Temperature influence distribution substantially. Our findings provide multiple measures describing community aid management conservation future.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Using multi‐scale spatial models of dendritic ecosystems to infer abundance of a stream salmonid DOI Creative Commons
Xinyi Lu, Yoichiro Kanno, George P. Valentine

et al.

Journal of Applied Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 61(7), P. 1703 - 1715

Published: May 7, 2024

Abstract Understanding patterns of species abundance is essential for planning landscape‐level conservation. The complex hierarchies dendritic ecosystems result in different levels heterogeneity at distinct geographic scales. Species responses to dynamic environmental drivers may also vary spatially depending on their interactions with landscape features. Monitoring by explicitly quantifying spatial and temporal variation important strategic management. We analysed brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) count data collected from 173 sites western North Carolina between 1989 2015. developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that used single‐ multi‐pass electro‐fishing characterized respective capture probabilities. quantified using multi‐scale process representative the nested stream habitats, we investigated differences population trends seasonal weather space life stage. Trout was lower Atlantic slope Eastern Continental Divide than interior, average, juveniles were more adversely affected high winter flows. However, populations both lifestages demonstrated positive trends, whereas Interior negative trend. found higher when conditioned covariates, where primary source revealed segment level, compared watershed or network levels. Our outperformed simpler models estimation out‐of‐sample prediction. inferred per‐pass probabilities indicated single‐pass surveys as efficient surveys. Synthesis applications . study suggested conservation priority should involve multiple criteria, including present‐day abundance, trend sensitivity drivers. Based scale‐specific variations recommend future strategically combine optimize estimation. approach widely applicable other occupying habitats.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Microgeographic variation in demography and thermal regimes stabilize regional abundance of a widespread freshwater fish DOI Creative Commons
Brian K. Gallagher, Dylan J. Fraser

Ecological Applications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 34(2)

Published: Dec. 10, 2023

Abstract Predicting the persistence of species under climate change is an increasingly important objective in ecological research and management. However, biotic abiotic heterogeneity can drive asynchrony population responses at small spatial scales, complicating species‐level assessments. For widely distributed consisting many fragmented populations, such as brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), understanding drivers dynamics improve predictions range‐wide impacts. We analyzed demographic time series from mark–recapture surveys 11 natural populations eastern Canada over 13 years to examine extent, drivers, consequences fine‐scale variation. The focal were genetically differentiated, occupied a area (~25 km 2 ) with few human impacts, experienced similar conditions. Recruitment was highly asynchronous, weakly related variables showed population‐specific relationships other processes, generating diverse dynamics. In contrast, individual growth mostly synchronized among driven by shared positive relationship stream temperature. Outputs models unrelated four five hypothesized (recruitment, growth, reproductive success, phylogenetic distance), but variation groundwater inputs strongly influenced temperature regimes stock–recruitment relationships. Finally, generated portfolio effect that stabilized regional abundance. Our results demonstrated demographics habitat diversity microgeographic scales play significant role moderating change. Moreover, we suggest absence activities within study streams preserved contributed abundance, while eased monitoring increased likelihood detecting asynchrony. Therefore, anthropogenic degradation, landscape context, scale must be considered when developing management strategies monitor maintain are diverse, stable, resilient

Language: Английский

Citations

2