Geoscientific model development,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
17(22), P. 8421 - 8454
Published: Nov. 27, 2024
Abstract.
Climate
change
and
industrial
fishing
are
having
profound
effects
on
marine
ecosystems.
Numerical
models
of
fish
communities
their
interaction
with
can
help
assess
the
biogeochemical
socioeconomic
dynamics
this
coupled
human–natural
system
how
it
is
changing.
However,
existing
have
significant
biases
do
not
include
many
processes
known
to
be
relevant.
Here
we
describe
an
updated
version
BiOeconomic
mArine
Trophic
Size-spectrum
(BOATS)
model
for
global
fishery
studies.
The
incorporates
new
ecological
economic
features
designed
ameliorate
prior
biases.
Recent
improvements
reduction
growth
rates
in
iron-limited
high-nutrient
low-chlorophyll
regions
ability
simulate
management.
Features
added
BOATS
here
first
time
(1)
a
separation
pelagic
demersal
provide
expanded
representation
diversity
(2)
spatial
variation
costs
catchability
more
realistic
effort
dynamics.
We
also
introduce
set
observational
diagnostics
evaluate
beyond
boundary
large
ecosystems
(66
commonly
adopted
coastal
ocean
ecoregions).
Following
multi-step
parameter
selection
procedure,
BOATSv2
shows
comparable
performance
original
ecosystems,
accurately
simulating
catch,
biomass,
effort,
markedly
improves
fisheries
high
seas,
correcting
excessive
seas
deep-sea
catches
previous
version.
Improvements
mainly
stem
from
separating
energy
pathways,
complemented
by
spatially
variable
depth-
distance-dependent
costs.
code
available
both
historical
future
scenarios.
Global Change Biology,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
28(7), P. 2259 - 2271
Published: Jan. 21, 2022
According
to
the
temperature-size
rule,
warming
of
aquatic
ecosystems
is
generally
predicted
increase
individual
growth
rates
but
reduce
asymptotic
body
sizes
ectotherms.
However,
we
lack
a
comprehensive
understanding
how
and
key
processes
affecting
it,
such
as
consumption
metabolism,
depend
on
both
temperature
mass
within
species.
This
limits
our
ability
inform
models,
link
experimental
data
observed
patterns,
advance
mechanistic
food
web
models.
To
examine
combined
effects
size
growth,
well
between
maximum
consumption,
conducted
systematic
review
compiled
fishes
from
52
studies
that
treatments.
By
fitting
hierarchical
models
accounting
for
variation
species,
estimated
metabolic
rate
scale
jointly
with
We
found
whole-organism
increases
more
slowly
than
unimodal
over
full
range,
which
leads
prediction
optimum
temperatures
decline
size.
Using
an
independent
dataset,
confirmed
this
negative
relationship
Small
individuals
given
population
may,
therefore,
exhibit
increased
initial
warming,
whereas
larger
conspecifics
could
be
first
experience
impacts
growth.
These
findings
help
dynamics
improve
climate
affects
structure
Ecology Letters,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
25(5), P. 1177 - 1188
Published: March 9, 2022
Fish
and
other
ectotherms
living
in
warmer
waters
often
grow
faster
as
juveniles,
mature
earlier,
but
become
smaller
adults.
Known
the
temperature-size
rule
(TSR),
this
pattern
is
commonly
attributed
to
higher
metabolism
waters,
leaving
fewer
resources
for
growth.
An
alternative
explanation
focuses
on
growth
reproduction
trade-offs
across
temperatures.
We
tested
these
hypotheses
by
measuring
growth,
maturation,
reproductive
allocation
from
zebrafish
populations
kept
at
26
30°C
six
generations.
Zebrafish
maturation
followed
TSR
expectations
were
not
explained
baseline
metabolic
rate,
which
converged
between
temperature
treatments
after
a
few
Rather,
we
found
that
females
allocated
more
reproduction,
especially
when
maturing
smallest
sizes.
show
elevated
temperatures
do
necessarily
increase
if
sufficient
acclimation
allowed
call
an
urgent
revision
of
modelling
assumptions
used
predict
population
ecosystem
responses
warming.
Global Change Biology,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
31(1)
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
ABSTRACT
Climate
change
can
impact
marine
ecosystems
through
many
biological
and
ecological
processes.
Ecosystem
models
are
one
tool
that
be
used
to
simulate
how
the
complex
impacts
of
climate
may
manifest
in
a
warming
world.
In
this
study,
we
an
end‐to‐end
Atlantis
ecosystem
model
compare
contrast
effects
climate‐driven
species
redistribution
projected
temperature
from
three
separate
on
key
commercial
importance
California
Current
Ecosystem.
Adopting
scenario
analysis
approach,
measure
differences
biomass,
abundance,
weight
at
age
pelagic
demersal
among
six
simulations
for
years
2013–2100
tracked
implications
those
changes
spatially
defined
fishing
fleets.
The
varied
their
use
forced
distribution
shifts,
time‐varying
projections
ocean
warming,
or
both.
general,
abundance
biomass
coastal
like
Pacific
sardine
(
Sardinops
sagax
)
northern
anchovy
Engraulis
mordax
were
more
sensitive
change,
while
groups
Dover
sole
Microstomus
pacificus
experienced
smaller
due
counteracting
spatial
metabolic
warming.
Climate‐driven
shifts
resulting
food
web
interactions
influential
than
end‐of‐century
patterns.
Spatial
fisheries
catch
did
not
always
align
with
targeted
species.
This
mismatch
is
likely
into
out
areas
emphasizes
explicit
understanding
both
dynamics.
We
illuminate
important
pathways
which
acts
context
end
discussion
potential
management
future
directions
research
using
models.
Progress In Oceanography,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
198, P. 102659 - 102659
Published: Aug. 9, 2021
Climate
change
is
warming
the
ocean
and
impacting
lower
trophic
level
(LTL)
organisms.
Marine
ecosystem
models
can
provide
estimates
of
how
these
changes
will
propagate
to
larger
animals
impact
societal
services
such
as
fisheries,
but
at
present
vary
widely.
A
better
understanding
what
drives
this
inter-model
variation
improve
our
ability
project
fisheries
other
into
future,
while
also
helping
identify
uncertainties
in
process
understanding.
Here,
we
explore
mechanisms
that
underlie
diversity
responses
temperature
LTLs
eight
global
marine
from
Fisheries
Ecosystem
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(FishMIP).
Temperature
LTL
impacts
on
total
consumer
biomass
structure
(defined
relative
small
large
organism
biomass)
were
isolated
using
a
comparative
experimental
protocol.
Total
model
varied
between
−35%
+3%
response
warming,
-17%
+15%
changes.
There
was
little
consensus
about
spatial
redistribution
or
balance
organisms
(ecosystem
structure)
an
depending
choice
forcing
terms.
Overall,
climate
are
well
approximated
by
sum
impacts,
indicating
absence
nonlinear
interaction
models'
drivers.
Our
results
highlight
lack
theoretical
clarity
represent
fundamental
ecological
mechanisms,
most
importantly
scale
individual
level,
need
understand
two-way
coupling
consumers.
We
finish
identifying
future
research
needs
strengthen
modelling
projections
impacts.
Journal of Experimental Biology,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
224(Suppl_1)
Published: Feb. 15, 2021
ABSTRACT
Warming
of
aquatic
environments
as
a
result
climate
change
is
already
having
measurable
impacts
on
fishes,
manifested
changes
in
phenology,
range
shifts
and
reductions
body
size.
Understanding
the
physiological
mechanisms
underlying
these
seemingly
universal
patterns
crucial
if
we
are
to
reliably
predict
fate
fish
populations
with
future
warming.
This
includes
an
understanding
for
acute
thermal
tolerance,
extreme
heatwaves
may
be
major
driver
observed
effects.
The
hypothesis
gill
oxygen
limitation
(GOL)
claimed
explain
asymptotic
growth,
why
some
species
decreasing
size
warming;
but
its
assumptions
conflict
established
knowledge
direct
mechanistic
evidence
lacking.
oxygen-
capacity-limited
tolerance
(OCLTT)
has
stimulated
wave
research
into
role
supply
capacity
performance
curves
aerobic
scope,
results
vary
greatly
between
species,
indicating
that
it
unlikely
mechanism.
As
remain
important
incorporating
models,
discuss
potentially
fruitful
alternatives
notably
specific
dynamic
action
growth
rate.
We
consider
limitations
estimating
by
single
rapid
measure
whose
mechanism
not
known.
emphasise
continued
importance
experimental
physiology,
particularly
advancing
our
mechanisms,
also
challenge
making
this
relevant
more
complex
reality.
Ecological Applications,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
32(5)
Published: April 2, 2022
Long-term
changes
in
the
age
and
size
structure
of
animal
populations
are
well
documented,
yet
their
impacts
on
population
productivity
poorly
understood.
Fishery
exploitation
can
be
a
major
driver
age-size
because
fisheries
significantly
increase
mortality
often
selectively
remove
larger
older
fish.
Climate
change
is
another
potential
shifts
demographic
fish
populations.
Northeast
Arctic
(NEA)
cod
largest
Atlantic
(Gadus
morhua)
one
world's
most
important
commercial
stocks.
This
has
experienced
considerable
over
past
century,
largely
response
to
fishing.
In
this
study,
we
investigate
whether
spawner
have
affected
NEA
cod,
measured
as
recruits
per
spawning
stock
biomass,
75
years.
We
find
evidence
that
toward
younger
spawners
negatively
affect
productivity,
implying
higher
recruitment
success
when
composed
individuals.
The
positive
effect
an
likely
linked
maternal
effects
reproductive
output
females.
Our
results
indicate
threefold
difference
between
youngest
oldest
been
observed
since
1950s.
Further,
our
suggest
environmental
temperature
negative
intraspecific
cannibalism
by
juveniles
which
partly
masked
unless
accounted
for
model.
Collectively,
these
findings
emphasize
importance
harvest-induced
feedbacks
lead
stock.
Incorporating
data
into
harvest
strategies
could
thus
facilitate
sustainable
fishery
management.
Biological Bulletin,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
243(2), P. 220 - 238
Published: Oct. 1, 2022
The
temperature-size
rule
is
one
of
the
universal
rules
in
ecology
and
states
that
ectotherms
warmer
waters
will
grow
faster
as
juveniles,
mature
at
smaller
sizes
younger
ages,
reach
maximum
body
sizes.
Many
models
have
unsuccessfully
attempted
to
reproduce
rule-consistent
life
histories
by
using
two-term
(anabolism
catabolism)
Pütter-type
growth
models,
such
von
Bertalanffy.
Here,
we
present
a
physiologically
structured
individual
model,
which
incorporates
an
energy
budget
optimizes
allocation
growth,
reproduction,
reserves.
Growth,
maturation,
reproductive
output
emerge
result
life-history
optimization
specific
physiological
rates
mortality
conditions.
To
assess
processes
can
lead
rule-type
histories,
simulate
42
scenarios
differ
temperature
size
dependencies
intake,
metabolism,
rates.
Results
show
two
ways.
first
way
requires
both
intake
metabolism
increase
with
temperature,
but
temperature-body
interaction
must
relatively
small
individuals
larger
large
ones.
second
only
higher
temperature-driven
natural
early
(no
change
metabolic
needed).
This
selects
for
earlier
maturation
increased
output.
Our
model
provides
novel
mechanistic
evolutionary
framework
identifying
conditions
necessary
rule.
It
shows
likely
reflect
changes
use
Bertalanffy-type
do
not
include
reproduction
processes,
hinder
our
ability
understand
predict
ectotherm
responses
climate
change.
Frontiers in Marine Science,
Journal Year:
2020,
Volume and Issue:
7
Published: Nov. 26, 2020
Global
climate
change
is
expected
to
impact
ocean
ecosystems
through
increases
in
temperature,
decreases
pH
and
oxygen,
increased
stratification,
with
subsequent
declines
primary
productivity.
These
impacts
propagate
the
food
chain
leading
amplified
effects
on
secondary
producers
higher
trophic
levels.
Similarly,
may
disproportionately
affect
different
species,
depending
their
ecological
niche.
To
investigate
how
global
environmental
will
alter
fish
assemblages
productivity,
we
used
a
spatially
explicit
mechanistic
model
of
three
main
functional
types
reflected
fisheries
catches
(FEISTY)
coupled
an
Earth
system
(GFDL-ESM2M)
make
projections
out
2100.
We
additionally
explored
sensitivity
uncertainties
widely
metabolic
allometries
temperature
dependence.
When
integrated
globally,
biomass
production
all
decreased
under
high
emissions
scenario
(RCP
8.5)
compared
mean
contemporary
conditions.
Projections
also
revealed
strong
ratio
pelagic
zooplankton
benthic
production,
dominant
driver
abundance
large
vs.
demersal
historical
Increases
this
led
“pelagification”
exemplified
by
shifts
from
benthic-based
webs
toward
pelagic-based
ones.
The
resulting
systems,
however,
were
dominated
forage
fish,
as
suffered
increasing
demands
warming
productivity
that
at
Patterns
relative
between
robust
uncertainty
dependence,
though
had
greatest
uncertainty.
same
accumulation
underlies
amplification
trends
levels
propagates
projection
spread,
creating
acutely
uncertain
future
for
ocean’s
largest
predatory
fish.
PLoS Biology,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
21(5), P. e3002114 - e3002114
Published: May 25, 2023
Within
many
species,
and
particularly
fish,
fecundity
does
not
scale
with
mass
linearly;
instead,
it
scales
disproportionately.
Disproportionate
intraspecific
size–reproduction
relationships
contradict
most
theories
of
biological
growth
present
challenges
for
the
management
systems.
Yet
drivers
reproductive
scaling
remain
obscure
systematic
predictors
how
why
reproduction
varies
are
lacking.
Here,
we
parameterise
life
history
optimisation
model
to
predict
global
patterns
in
histories
marine
fishes.
Our
latitudinal
trends
histories:
Polar
fish
should
reproduce
at
a
later
age
show
steeper
than
tropical
fish.
We
tested
confirmed
these
predictions
using
new,
dataset
histories,
demonstrating
that
risks
mortality
shape
maturation
scaling.
also
predicts
warming
will
profoundly
reshape
favouring
earlier
reproduction,
smaller
body
sizes,
lower
mass-specific
outputs,
worrying
consequences
population
persistence.