BOATSv2: new ecological and economic features improve simulations of high seas catch and effort DOI Creative Commons
Jérôme Guiet, Daniele Bianchi, Kim Scherrer

et al.

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(22), P. 8421 - 8454

Published: Nov. 27, 2024

Abstract. Climate change and industrial fishing are having profound effects on marine ecosystems. Numerical models of fish communities their interaction with can help assess the biogeochemical socioeconomic dynamics this coupled human–natural system how it is changing. However, existing have significant biases do not include many processes known to be relevant. Here we describe an updated version BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model for global fishery studies. The incorporates new ecological economic features designed ameliorate prior biases. Recent improvements reduction growth rates in iron-limited high-nutrient low-chlorophyll regions ability simulate management. Features added BOATS here first time (1) a separation pelagic demersal provide expanded representation diversity (2) spatial variation costs catchability more realistic effort dynamics. We also introduce set observational diagnostics evaluate beyond boundary large ecosystems (66 commonly adopted coastal ocean ecoregions). Following multi-step parameter selection procedure, BOATSv2 shows comparable performance original ecosystems, accurately simulating catch, biomass, effort, markedly improves fisheries high seas, correcting excessive seas deep-sea catches previous version. Improvements mainly stem from separating energy pathways, complemented by spatially variable depth- distance-dependent costs. code available both historical future scenarios.

Language: Английский

Optimum growth temperature declines with body size within fish species DOI Creative Commons
Max Lindmark, Jan Ohlberger, Anna Gårdmark

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(7), P. 2259 - 2271

Published: Jan. 21, 2022

According to the temperature-size rule, warming of aquatic ecosystems is generally predicted increase individual growth rates but reduce asymptotic body sizes ectotherms. However, we lack a comprehensive understanding how and key processes affecting it, such as consumption metabolism, depend on both temperature mass within species. This limits our ability inform models, link experimental data observed patterns, advance mechanistic food web models. To examine combined effects size growth, well between maximum consumption, conducted systematic review compiled fishes from 52 studies that treatments. By fitting hierarchical models accounting for variation species, estimated metabolic rate scale jointly with We found whole-organism increases more slowly than unimodal over full range, which leads prediction optimum temperatures decline size. Using an independent dataset, confirmed this negative relationship Small individuals given population may, therefore, exhibit increased initial warming, whereas larger conspecifics could be first experience impacts growth. These findings help dynamics improve climate affects structure

Language: Английский

Citations

84

Smaller adult fish size in warmer water is not explained by elevated metabolism DOI
Henry F. Wootton, John R. Morrongiello, Thomas Schmitt

et al.

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(5), P. 1177 - 1188

Published: March 9, 2022

Fish and other ectotherms living in warmer waters often grow faster as juveniles, mature earlier, but become smaller adults. Known the temperature-size rule (TSR), this pattern is commonly attributed to higher metabolism waters, leaving fewer resources for growth. An alternative explanation focuses on growth reproduction trade-offs across temperatures. We tested these hypotheses by measuring growth, maturation, reproductive allocation from zebrafish populations kept at 26 30°C six generations. Zebrafish maturation followed TSR expectations were not explained baseline metabolic rate, which converged between temperature treatments after a few Rather, we found that females allocated more reproduction, especially when maturing smallest sizes. show elevated temperatures do necessarily increase if sufficient acclimation allowed call an urgent revision of modelling assumptions used predict population ecosystem responses warming.

Language: Английский

Citations

78

Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century‐Scale Warming in an End‐To‐End California Current Ecosystem Model DOI
Owen R. Liu, Isaac C. Kaplan, Pierre‐Yves Hernvann

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change can impact marine ecosystems through many biological and ecological processes. Ecosystem models are one tool that be used to simulate how the complex impacts of climate may manifest in a warming world. In this study, we an end‐to‐end Atlantis ecosystem model compare contrast effects climate‐driven species redistribution projected temperature from three separate on key commercial importance California Current Ecosystem. Adopting scenario analysis approach, measure differences biomass, abundance, weight at age pelagic demersal among six simulations for years 2013–2100 tracked implications those changes spatially defined fishing fleets. The varied their use forced distribution shifts, time‐varying projections ocean warming, or both. general, abundance biomass coastal like Pacific sardine ( Sardinops sagax ) northern anchovy Engraulis mordax were more sensitive change, while groups Dover sole Microstomus pacificus experienced smaller due counteracting spatial metabolic warming. Climate‐driven shifts resulting food web interactions influential than end‐of‐century patterns. Spatial fisheries catch did not always align with targeted species. This mismatch is likely into out areas emphasizes explicit understanding both dynamics. We illuminate important pathways which acts context end discussion potential management future directions research using models.

Language: Английский

Citations

2

Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models DOI Creative Commons
Ryan F. Heneghan, Eric D. Galbraith, Julia L. Blanchard

et al.

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 198, P. 102659 - 102659

Published: Aug. 9, 2021

Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present vary widely. A better understanding what drives this inter-model variation improve our ability project fisheries other into future, while also helping identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore mechanisms that underlie diversity responses temperature LTLs eight global marine from Fisheries Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature LTL impacts on total consumer biomass structure (defined relative small large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model varied between −35% +3% response warming, -17% +15% changes. There was little consensus about spatial redistribution or balance organisms (ecosystem structure) an depending choice forcing terms. Overall, climate are well approximated by sum impacts, indicating absence nonlinear interaction models' drivers. Our results highlight lack theoretical clarity represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly scale individual level, need understand two-way coupling consumers. We finish identifying future research needs strengthen modelling projections impacts.

Language: Английский

Citations

97

The role of mechanistic physiology in investigating impacts of global warming on fishes DOI Open Access
Sjannie Lefevre, Tobias Wang, David J. McKenzie

et al.

Journal of Experimental Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 224(Suppl_1)

Published: Feb. 15, 2021

ABSTRACT Warming of aquatic environments as a result climate change is already having measurable impacts on fishes, manifested changes in phenology, range shifts and reductions body size. Understanding the physiological mechanisms underlying these seemingly universal patterns crucial if we are to reliably predict fate fish populations with future warming. This includes an understanding for acute thermal tolerance, extreme heatwaves may be major driver observed effects. The hypothesis gill oxygen limitation (GOL) claimed explain asymptotic growth, why some species decreasing size warming; but its assumptions conflict established knowledge direct mechanistic evidence lacking. oxygen- capacity-limited tolerance (OCLTT) has stimulated wave research into role supply capacity performance curves aerobic scope, results vary greatly between species, indicating that it unlikely mechanism. As remain important incorporating models, discuss potentially fruitful alternatives notably specific dynamic action growth rate. We consider limitations estimating by single rapid measure whose mechanism not known. emphasise continued importance experimental physiology, particularly advancing our mechanisms, also challenge making this relevant more complex reality.

Language: Английский

Citations

85

Age structure affects population productivity in an exploited fish species DOI
Jan Ohlberger, Øystein Langangen, Leif Christian Stige

et al.

Ecological Applications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 32(5)

Published: April 2, 2022

Long-term changes in the age and size structure of animal populations are well documented, yet their impacts on population productivity poorly understood. Fishery exploitation can be a major driver age-size because fisheries significantly increase mortality often selectively remove larger older fish. Climate change is another potential shifts demographic fish populations. Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod largest Atlantic (Gadus morhua) one world's most important commercial stocks. This has experienced considerable over past century, largely response to fishing. In this study, we investigate whether spawner have affected NEA cod, measured as recruits per spawning stock biomass, 75 years. We find evidence that toward younger spawners negatively affect productivity, implying higher recruitment success when composed individuals. The positive effect an likely linked maternal effects reproductive output females. Our results indicate threefold difference between youngest oldest been observed since 1950s. Further, our suggest environmental temperature negative intraspecific cannibalism by juveniles which partly masked unless accounted for model. Collectively, these findings emphasize importance harvest-induced feedbacks lead stock. Incorporating data into harvest strategies could thus facilitate sustainable fishery management.

Language: Английский

Citations

27

Mechanistic Temperature-Size Rule Explanation Should Reconcile Physiological and Mortality Responses to Temperature DOI
Asta Audzijonytė, Eglė Jakubavičiūtė, Max Lindmark

et al.

Biological Bulletin, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 243(2), P. 220 - 238

Published: Oct. 1, 2022

The temperature-size rule is one of the universal rules in ecology and states that ectotherms warmer waters will grow faster as juveniles, mature at smaller sizes younger ages, reach maximum body sizes. Many models have unsuccessfully attempted to reproduce rule-consistent life histories by using two-term (anabolism catabolism) Pütter-type growth models, such von Bertalanffy. Here, we present a physiologically structured individual model, which incorporates an energy budget optimizes allocation growth, reproduction, reserves. Growth, maturation, reproductive output emerge result life-history optimization specific physiological rates mortality conditions. To assess processes can lead rule-type histories, simulate 42 scenarios differ temperature size dependencies intake, metabolism, rates. Results show two ways. first way requires both intake metabolism increase with temperature, but temperature-body interaction must relatively small individuals larger large ones. second only higher temperature-driven natural early (no change metabolic needed). This selects for earlier maturation increased output. Our model provides novel mechanistic evolutionary framework identifying conditions necessary rule. It shows likely reflect changes use Bertalanffy-type do not include reproduction processes, hinder our ability understand predict ectotherm responses climate change.

Language: Английский

Citations

24

Integrated transcriptomic and epigenomic analyses to disclose the transcriptional regulatory mechanisms of lipid and energy metabolism under cold stress in grass carp DOI
Songqian Huang, C. Yan,

Yuan Xu

et al.

Aquaculture, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 595, P. 741526 - 741526

Published: Aug. 26, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

5

Large Pelagic Fish Are Most Sensitive to Climate Change Despite Pelagification of Ocean Food Webs DOI Creative Commons
Colleen M. Petrik, Charles A. Stock, Ken H. Andersen

et al.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Nov. 26, 2020

Global climate change is expected to impact ocean ecosystems through increases in temperature, decreases pH and oxygen, increased stratification, with subsequent declines primary productivity. These impacts propagate the food chain leading amplified effects on secondary producers higher trophic levels. Similarly, may disproportionately affect different species, depending their ecological niche. To investigate how global environmental will alter fish assemblages productivity, we used a spatially explicit mechanistic model of three main functional types reflected fisheries catches (FEISTY) coupled an Earth system (GFDL-ESM2M) make projections out 2100. We additionally explored sensitivity uncertainties widely metabolic allometries temperature dependence. When integrated globally, biomass production all decreased under high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) compared mean contemporary conditions. Projections also revealed strong ratio pelagic zooplankton benthic production, dominant driver abundance large vs. demersal historical Increases this led “pelagification” exemplified by shifts from benthic-based webs toward pelagic-based ones. The resulting systems, however, were dominated forage fish, as suffered increasing demands warming productivity that at Patterns relative between robust uncertainty dependence, though had greatest uncertainty. same accumulation underlies amplification trends levels propagates projection spread, creating acutely uncertain future for ocean’s largest predatory fish.

Language: Английский

Citations

37

Life history optimisation drives latitudinal gradients and responses to global change in marine fishes DOI Creative Commons
Mariana Álvarez‐Noriega, Craig R. White, Jan Kozłowski

et al.

PLoS Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 21(5), P. e3002114 - e3002114

Published: May 25, 2023

Within many species, and particularly fish, fecundity does not scale with mass linearly; instead, it scales disproportionately. Disproportionate intraspecific size–reproduction relationships contradict most theories of biological growth present challenges for the management systems. Yet drivers reproductive scaling remain obscure systematic predictors how why reproduction varies are lacking. Here, we parameterise life history optimisation model to predict global patterns in histories marine fishes. Our latitudinal trends histories: Polar fish should reproduce at a later age show steeper than tropical fish. We tested confirmed these predictions using new, dataset histories, demonstrating that risks mortality shape maturation scaling. also predicts warming will profoundly reshape favouring earlier reproduction, smaller body sizes, lower mass-specific outputs, worrying consequences population persistence.

Language: Английский

Citations

13