Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380(1917)

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss, destabilizing the ecosystems on which human society depends. As planet rapidly warms, disruption ecological interactions among populations, species and their environment, will likely drive positive feedback loops, accelerating pace magnitude losses. We propose that, even without invoking such amplifying feedback, loss should increase nonlinearly with warming because non-uniform distribution biodiversity. Whether these non-uniformities are uneven populations across species’ thermal niche, or niche limits within an community, we show that in both cases, resulting clustering population tolerances drives nonlinear increases risk discuss how fundamental constraints physiologies geographical distributions give rise clustered tolerances, responses changing climates could variously temper, delay intensify dynamics. argue risks be null expectation under warming, highlight empirical research needed understand causes, commonness consequences better predict where, when why losses occur. This article part discussion meeting issue ‘Bending curve towards nature recovery: building Georgina Mace’s legacy for biodiverse future’.

Language: Английский

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Impacts of limits to adaptation on population and community persistence in a changing environment

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380(1917)

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

A key issue in predicting how ecosystems will respond to environmental change is understanding why populations and communities are able live reproduce some parts of ecological geographical space, but not others. The limits adaptation that cause niches vary position width across taxa contexts determine emerge from selection on phenotypes genomes. Ecological trade-offs mean can only be optimal environments unless these reshaped through evolution. However, the amount rate evolution limited by genetic architectures, developmental systems (including phenotypic plasticity) legacies recent evolutionary history. Here, we summarize adaptive their consequences time (evolutionary rescue) space (species’ range limits), relating theoretical predictions empirical tests. We then highlight avenues for future research this area, better connections between demography analysing genomic architecture adaptation, dynamics plasticity interactions biotic abiotic environment. Progress questions help us understand when where allow species persist face rapid change. This article part discussion meeting ‘Bending curve towards nature recovery: building Georgina Mace's legacy a biodiverse future’.

Language: Английский

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Hidden genetic variation in plasticity provides the potential for rapid adaptation to novel environments

New Phytologist, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 239(1), P. 374 - 387

Published: Jan. 18, 2023

Rapid environmental change is forcing populations into environments where plasticity will no longer maintain fitness. When are exposed to novel environments, evolutionary theory predicts that genetic variation in fitness increase and should be associated with differences plasticity. If true, then can adaptive potential population persistence via rescue more likely. To test whether increases plasticity, we transplanted 8149 clones of 314 genotypes a Sicilian daisy (Senecio chrysanthemifolius) within outside its native range, quantified fitness, leaf traits gene expression. Although mean declined by 87% the environment, variance increased threefold was correlated traits. High showed greater expression, but lower most Interestingly, highest environment had lowest at site. These results suggest standing could help persist adapt despite remaining hidden environments.

Language: Английский

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Threshold shifts and developmental temperature impact trade-offs between tolerance and plasticity

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 291(2016)

Published: Feb. 7, 2024

Mounting evidence suggests that ectotherms are already living close to their upper physiological thermal limits. Phenotypic plasticity has been proposed reduce the impact of climate change in short-term providing time for adaptation, but tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis predicts organisms with higher tolerance have lower plasticity. Empirical is mixed, which may be driven by methodological issues such as statistical artefacts, nonlinear reaction norms, threshold shifts or selection. Here, we examine whether (organisms require stronger treatments induce maximum plastic responses) influence trade-offs hardening capacity desiccation and critical (CT

Language: Английский

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Understanding the biology of species' ranges: when and how does evolution change the rules of ecological engagement?

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(1848)

Published: Feb. 21, 2022

Understanding processes that limit species' ranges has been a core issue in ecology and evolutionary biology for many decades, become increasingly important given the need to predict responses of biological communities rapid environmental change. However, we still have poor understanding evolution at range limits its capacity change ecological 'rules engagement' define these communities, as well time frame over which this occurs. Here link papers current volume some key concepts involved interactions between margins. In particular, separate hypotheses about margins focus on hard limits, determine how genotypes interact with their environment, from those concerned soft where when local adaptation can persist space time. We show theoretical models empirical studies highlight conditions under gene flow expand contain them. doing so, emphasize complex interplay selection, demography population structure throughout geographical determines persistence communities. despite impressively detailed particularly invertebrates plants, few generalizations emerged outline directions future work such considering impact structural genetic variants metapopulation interaction mating systems non-random dispersal. This article is part theme 'Species' face changing environments (Part II)'.

Language: Английский

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Environmental effects on genetic variance are likely to constrain adaptation in novel environments

Evolution Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(3), P. 374 - 386

Published: Jan. 18, 2024

Abstract Adaptive plasticity allows populations to cope with environmental variation but is expected fail as conditions become unfamiliar. In novel conditions, may instead rely on rapid adaptation increase fitness and avoid extinction. Adaptation should be fastest when both selection occur in directions of the multivariate phenotype that contain abundant genetic variation. However, tests this prediction from field experiments are rare. Here, we quantify how additive variance a changes across an elevational gradient, test whether align We do so using two closely related, ecologically distinct, sister species Sicilian daisy (Senecio, Asteraceae) adapted high low elevations Mt. Etna. Using quantitative breeding design, generated then reciprocally planted c. 19,000 seeds species, gradient spanning each species’ native elevation, quantified mortality five leaf traits emergent seedlings. found changed more than between species. The high-elevation at lower showed distribution among traits, which reduced amount phenotype. By contrast, low-elevation mainly was concentrated direction For trait contained moderate variance. Together, these data suggest where adaptive, for initially plastic response could promote adaptation. large effects likely reduce adaptive potential environments.

Language: Английский

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The genetic basis and adult reproductive consequences of developmental thermal plasticity

Journal of Animal Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 91(6), P. 1119 - 1134

Published: Jan. 21, 2022

Abstract Increasing temperature and thermal variability generate profound selection on populations. Given the fast rate of environmental change, understanding role plasticity genetic adaptation in response to increasing temperatures is critical. This may be especially true for effects reproductive traits which fertility limits at high lower than survival traits. Consequences changing environments during development adult phenotypes particularly problematic core such as reproduction that begin early development. Here we examine consequences developmental subsequent its basis. We used a panel Drosophila melanogaster (the Genetic Reference Panel; DGRP) male performance was previously defined either showing relatively little (status = ‘high’‐performing lines) or substantial (‘low’‐performing decline when exposed temperatures. reaction norm approach quantify variation multiple traits, including sex‐specific responses, identify candidate genes underlying variation. Developmental stress impacted means norms all except offspring sex ratio. Mating success declined increased with no difference between low lines, whereas resulted declines both female productivity but depended line status. Fertility number were positively correlated within sexes across males more affected females. identified 933 SNPs significant evolved differentiation lines. In all, 54 these lie genomic windows overall differentiation, have genotype are associated 16 enriched affecting reproduction, responses autophagy other organisms. Our results illustrate considerable several following temperature, differentiated loci relevant phenotypic contribute this population While our work single population, align an studies demonstrating potential stronger males. Such large fitness costs short‐ long‐term evolution populations warming world.

Language: Английский

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Elevated developmental temperatures below the lethal limit reduce Aedes aegypti fertility

Journal of Experimental Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 228(3)

Published: Jan. 6, 2025

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are the principal vectors of dengue and continue to pose a threat human health, with ongoing urbanization, climate change trade all impacting distribution abundance this species. Hot periods becoming increasingly common their impacts on insect mortality have been well established, but they may even greater fertility. In study, we investigated high temperatures Ae. fertility both within across generations. Mosquitoes developing under elevated exhibited higher critical thermal maxima (CTmax), reflecting developmental acclimation, declined increasing temperature. females, decreased fecundity while in males it tended decrease proportion eggs that hatched individuals producing viable offspring. Rearing sexes at 35°C increased subsequent generation effects persisted gonotrophic cycles same generation. Moreover, exposure adults further beyond temperature alone. These findings highlight sub-lethal plastic responses stress This has significant implications for predicting mosquito populations thriving warmer environments.

Language: Английский

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How should we bend the curve of biodiversity loss to build a just and sustainable future?

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380(1917)

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

Current rates of habitat and biodiversity loss, the threat they pose to ecological economic productivity, would be considered a global emergency even if were not occurring during period rapid anthropogenic climate change. Diversity at all levels biological organization, both within among species, across genomes communities, is critical for resilience world’s ecosystems in face such However, it remains an urgent scientific challenge understand how underpins these outputs, patterns are being affected by current threats, where contributes most directly human economies, well-being social justice. In addition, with understanding, there pressing need societies incorporate protection into their economies governance, stop subsidizing loss humanity’s future prosperity short-term private benefit. We highlight key issues ways forward areas, inspired research career Dame Georgina Mace FRS, our discussions Royal Society meeting June 2023. This article part discussion issue ‘Bending curve towards nature recovery: building on Mace's legacy biodiverse future’.

Language: Английский

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Environmental Regulation and Green Technology Innovation: An Evolutionary Game Analysis Between Government and High Energy Consuming Enterprises

Computational Economics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 11, 2025

Language: Английский

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