Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(31)

Published: Aug. 5, 2022

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely reveal ecological evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on distribution diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers biological constraints operate large scales. However, can encode proposed into models, observe they produce in virtual environments, validate these against real-world or theoretical expectations. This approach advance understanding generalizable distributions organisms, communities, ecosystems space time, advancing basic applied science. We review recent developments how improved knowledge dynamics life Earth, enabling biodiversity better understood managed through a deeper recognition processes that shape genetic, species, ecosystem diversity.

Language: Английский

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The biased distribution of existing information on biodiversity hinders its use in conservation, and we need an integrative approach to act urgently

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 283, P. 110118 - 110118

Published: May 15, 2023

The data collected by the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), some 2.2 billion records, is arguably largest international initiative to digitize and share primary biodiversity data. In this study, we examine global distribution of completeness values discriminating those 30-minute cells that are likely have reliable inventories for most important terrestrial classes Animalia Plantae. aim exploration not only show biases deficiencies in information so far, but also estimate climatic variability represented these order known their representativeness conservation purposes. results obtained on taxonomically geographically biased towards regions groups with more taxonomic resources a longer naturalistic tradition. amount distributional very uneven across different biological groups, unrelated diversity they possess. patterns seem be conditioned historical taxonomic, faunistic floristic interest received organisms. addition, well-surveyed areas account barely 1 % climate variability, leaving uncovered large set conditions. All prevent us from relying exclusively available organisms identify and/or design proposals. Given crisis demands urgent action, gaps cannot an excuse decisions must made considering broad criteria based existing scientifically proven knowledge techniques capable providing necessary answers.

Language: Английский

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Chemical Mixtures and Multiple Stressors: Same but Different?

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 42(9), P. 1915 - 1936

Published: April 10, 2023

Ecosystems are strongly influenced by multiple anthropogenic stressors, including a wide range of chemicals and their mixtures. Studies on the effects stressors have largely focussed nonchemical whereas studies chemical mixtures ignored other stressors. However, both research areas face similar challenges require tools methods to predict joint or frameworks integrate missing. We provide an overview paradigms, tools, commonly used in stressor mixture discuss potential domains cross-fertilization challenges. First, we compare general paradigms ecotoxicology (applied) ecology explain historical divide. Subsequently, approaches for identification interactions, characterization, designing experiments. suggest that too focused interactions would benefit from integration regarding null model selection. Stressor characterization is typically more costly While comprehensive classification systems at suborganismal level been developed, recent account environmental context. Both suffer rather simplified experimental designs focus only limited number chemicals, treatments. concepts can guide realistic capturing spatiotemporal dynamics. process-based data-driven models particularly promising tackle challenge prediction (meta-)communities (meta-)food webs. propose framework assessment Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:1915-1936. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology Chemistry published Wiley Periodicals LLC behalf SETAC.

Language: Английский

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ReptTraits: a comprehensive dataset of ecological traits in reptiles

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Feb. 27, 2024

Abstract Trait datasets are increasingly being used in studies investigating eco-evolutionary theory and global conservation initiatives. Reptiles emerging as a key group for studying these questions because their traits crucial understanding the ability of animals to cope with environmental changes contributions ecosystem processes. We collected data from earlier databases, primary literature create an up-to-date dataset reptilian traits, encompassing 40 12060 species reptiles (Archelosauria: Crocodylia Testudines, Rhynchocephalia, Squamata: Amphisbaenia, Sauria, Serpentes). The were gathered 1288 sources published between 1820 2023. includes morphological, physiological, behavioral, life history well information on availability genetic data, IUCN Red List assessments, population trends.

Language: Английский

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Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 379(1902)

Published: April 7, 2024

Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA ( sed aDNA) has revolutionised our ability document ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared microfossils (pollen, spores), and often give species-level information, especially for vascular plant mammal abundances. Time are much richer information than contemporary spatial distribution which have been traditionally used train models predicting biodiversity responses change. Here, outline the potential contribution aDNA changes. We showcase how may allow quantification effect biotic interactions be estimate dispersal rates when a dense network sites available. By combining palaeo-time series, models, inverse modelling, recover abiotic processes underlying very challenging characterise. Dynamic informed by further extrapolate beyond current dynamics provide robust forecasts future This article part theme issue ‘Ecological novelty planetary stewardship: transforming biosphere’.

Language: Английский

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Paleorecords Reveal Biological Mechanisms Crucial for Reliable Species Range Shift Projections Amid Rapid Climate Change

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 28(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such have been mainly produced distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. Here, we hindcast the range shifts forest tree across Europe over last 12,000 years to compare reliability three different types models. We show that most climatically dissimilar conditions, process‐explicit (PEMs) tend outperform correlative (CSDMs), and PEM are likely be more than those made CSDMs end 21st century. These results demonstrate first time often promoted albeit so far untested idea explicit description mechanisms confers model robustness, highlight a new avenue increase projection future.

Language: Английский

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Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: May 2, 2023

Abstract Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity and inflict massive economic costs. Effective management of bio-invasions depends on reliable predictions areas at risk invasion, as they allow early invader detection rapid responses. Yet, considerable uncertainty remains how predict best potential invasive distribution ranges. Using set mainly (sub)tropical birds introduced Europe, we show that the true extent geographical area invasion can accurately be determined by using ecophysiological mechanistic models quantify species’ fundamental thermal niches. Potential ranges are primarily constrained functional traits related body allometry temperature, metabolic rates, feather insulation. Given their capacity identify tolerable climates outside contemporary realized niches, well suited for informing effective policy aimed preventing escalating impacts species.

Language: Английский

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Global determinants of insect mitochondrial genetic diversity

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Aug. 29, 2023

Understanding global patterns of genetic diversity is essential for describing, monitoring, and preserving life on Earth. To date, efforts to map macrogenetic have been restricted vertebrates, which comprise only a small fraction Earth's biodiversity. Here, we construct predicted insect mitochondrial from cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 sequences, derived open data. We calculate the mean evenness assemblages across globe, identify their environmental correlates, make predictions levels in unsampled areas based Using large single-locus dataset over 2 million globally distributed georeferenced mtDNA find that follows quadratic latitudinal gradient peaking subtropics. Both positively correlate with seasonally hot temperatures, as well climate stability since last glacial maximum. Our models explain 27.9% 24.0% observed variation insects, respectively, making an important step towards understanding biodiversity most diverse animal taxon.

Language: Английский

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52,000 years of woolly rhinoceros population dynamics reveal extinction mechanisms

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(24)

Published: June 3, 2024

The extinction of the woolly rhinoceros ( Coelodonta antiquitatis ) at onset Holocene remains an enigma, with conflicting evidence regarding its cause and spatiotemporal dynamics. This partly reflects challenges in determining demographic responses late Quaternary megafauna to climatic anthropogenic causal drivers available genetic paleontological techniques. Here, we show that elucidating mechanisms ancient extinctions can benefit from a detailed understanding fine-scale metapopulation dynamics, operating over many millennia. Using abundant fossil record, DNA, high-resolution simulation models, untangle ecological are likely have been integral decline later rhinoceros. Our 52,000-y reconstruction distribution-wide dynamics supports pathway began long before Holocene, when combination cooling temperatures low but sustained hunting by humans trapped rhinoceroses suboptimal habitats along southern edge their range. Modeling indicates this trap intensified after end last ice age, preventing colonization newly formed suitable habitats, weakening stabilizing processes, triggering early Holocene. findings suggest fragmentation resultant should be explicitly considered explanations extinctions, sending clarion call fragility remaining large-bodied grazers restricted disjunct fragments poor-quality habitat due environmental change.

Language: Английский

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Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change

Conservation Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 38(1)

Published: May 5, 2023

Abstract Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one key recommendations adaptation. We review summarize approximately 30 years applied research focused on identifying to prioritize conservation actions under rapid change. found that currently proposed predicted avoid future losses are highly reliant excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, life‐history variables could be used identify other types lead desired diversified portfolio reef conservation. To improve priorities reefs, there a need evaluate validate predictions with long‐term field data abundance, diversity, functioning. There also safeguard displaying resistance toprolonged exposure waves ability recover quickly after exposure. recommend using more metrics potential sites can avoid, resist, high ocean temperatures consequences change, thereby shifting past efforts avoidance risk‐spreading strategic in rapidly warming climate.

Language: Английский

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