Multivariate environment-fish biomass model informs sustainability and lost income in Indian Ocean coral reefs

Marine Policy, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 152, P. 105590 - 105590

Published: April 8, 2023

Language: Английский

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Modeling the spatial distribution of numbers of coral reef fish species and community types in the Western Indian Ocean faunal province

Marine Ecology Progress Series, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 730, P. 59 - 78

Published: Feb. 5, 2024

Predicting and mapping coral reef diversity at moderate scales can assist spatial planning prioritizing conservation activities. We made coarse-scale (6.25 km 2 ) predictive models for numbers of fish species community composition starting with a spatially complete database 70 environmental variables available 7039 mapped cells in the Western Indian Ocean. An ensemble model was created from process variable elimination selectivity to make best predictions irrespective human influences. This compared using preselected commonly used evaluate climate change fishing water quality Many (~27) contributed number models, but local biomass, depth, retention connectivity were dominant predictors. The key human-influenced included biomass distance populations, weaker associations sediments nutrients. Climate-influenced generally median sea surface temperature (SST) contributions declining order SST kurtosis, bimodality, excess summer heat, skewness, rate rise, cover. Community variability explained by richness axes damselfishes-angelfishes butterflyfishes-parrotfishes. Numbers damselfish-angelfish ecologically separated damselfishes declined increasing temperature, cumulative chronic stresses. Species butterflyfish-parrotfish butterflyfish acute variability, rise. Several hotspots found East African Coastal Current Ecoregion centered Tanzania, followed Mayotte, southern Kenya, northern Mozambique. If be maintained, broad distributions combined compensatory responses should maintain high ecological resilience other stressors.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change and Lessepsian Migration to the Mediterranean Sea

Earth and environmental sciences library, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 85 - 118

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Paleobiogeographic insights gained from ecological niche models: progress and continued challenges

Paleobiology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 1 - 21

Published: March 11, 2025

Abstract The spatial distribution of individuals within ecological assemblages and their associated traits behaviors are key determinants ecosystem structure function. Consequently, determining the species, how distributions influence patterns species richness across ecosystems today in past, helps us understand what factors act as fundamental controls on biodiversity. Here, we explore niche modeling has contributed to understanding spatiotemporal past biodiversity evolutionary processes. We first perform a semiquantitative literature review capture studies that applied models (ENMs) identifying 668 studies. coded each study according focal taxonomic group, whether used fossil evidence, it relied evidence or methods addition ENMs, scale study, temporal intervals included ENMs. trends publication categories anchor discussion recent technical advances modeling, focusing paleobiogeographic ENM applications. then explored contributions ENMs paleobiogeography, with particular focus examining drivers range dynamics; phylogeography within-lineage macroevolutionary processes, including change, speciation, extinction; community assembly; conservation paleobiogeography. Overall, powerful tools for elucidating patterns. most commonly Quaternary dynamics, but an increasing number use gain important insight into both processes pre-Quaternary times. Deeper integration phylogenies may further extend those insights.

Language: Английский

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Habitat Complexity and Substrate Age Are Primary Factors Influencing Temperate Intertidal Community Assembly

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Aim Elucidating mechanisms underlying the formation and maintenance of communities remains a fundamental ecological question. However, relative importance niche dispersal assembly might be contingent. Here, we aimed to investigate intertidal community dynamics understand process maintenance. Focusing on habitat complexity, substrate age larval rate contributes our understanding impact human activities climate change change. Location Temperate coast China. Time Period 2013–2021. Major Taxa Studied Intertidal invertebrates, mainly including Gastropods, Bivalves, Polyplacophora Cirripedia. Methods We obtained species distribution data through 9 years field surveys temperate coasts determined taxonomic functional diversity combined with traits. also analysed environmental factors, age, heatwave occurrence duration, rate, chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen, nutrients (i.e., nitrate, phosphate silicate), salinity seawater velocity by using generalised linear mixed models redundancy analysis. Results Our results show that varies across natural artificial substrates. Community biodiversity shores low complexity increases initially reaches saturation values. their values are still lower than those sites much higher complexity. Main Conclusions Habitat primarily drive diversity. Niche‐based processes shape structure function rocky in Improving is crucial for enhancing both restoration shores.

Language: Английский

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Can inverse calibration help improving process-explicit species distribution models?

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 506, P. 111132 - 111132

Published: May 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Faster ocean warming threatens richest areas of marine biodiversity

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(19), P. 5849 - 5858

Published: July 7, 2022

Abstract The vulnerability of marine biodiversity to accelerated rates climatic change is poorly understood. By developing a new method for identifying extreme oceanic warming events during Earth's most recent deglaciation, and comparing these 21st century projections, we show that future ocean will disproportionately affect the speciose communities, potentially threatening in more than 70% current‐day global hotspots species richness. persistence richest areas require many move well beyond biogeographic realm where they are endemic, at redistribution not previously seen. Our approach quantifying exposure past provides context scalable information deriving strengthening conservation actions safeguard under climate change.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal influences of climate and humans on muskox range dynamics over multiple millennia

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(22), P. 6602 - 6617

Published: Aug. 10, 2022

Abstract Processes leading to range contractions and population declines of Arctic megafauna during the late Pleistocene early Holocene are uncertain, with intense debate on roles human hunting, climatic change, their synergy. Obstacles a resolution have included an overreliance correlative rather than process‐explicit approaches for inferring drivers distributional demographic change. Here, we disentangle ecological mechanisms threats that were integral in decline extinction muskox ( Ovibos moschatus ) Eurasia its expansion North America using macroecological models. The approach integrates modern fossil occurrence records, ancient DNA, spatiotemporal reconstructions past species‐specific ecology, growth spread anatomically humans. We show accurately reconstructing inferences changes over last 21,000 years require high dispersal abilities, large maximum densities, small Allee effect. Analyses validated projections indicate change was primary driver distribution shifts across previously extensive (circumpolar) range, populations responding negatively rapid warming events. Regional analyses collapse Europe (~13,000 ago) likely caused by humans operating synergy warming. In Canada Greenland, activities probably combined drive recent sizes. impact dynamics Pleistocene–Holocene transition signals vulnerability this species future increased By better establishing processes shaped through space time, models important applications conservation management iconic Arctic.

Language: Английский

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Predicting emergent animal biodiversity patterns across multiple scales

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(7)

Published: July 1, 2024

Abstract Restoring biodiversity‐based resilience and ecosystem multi‐functionality needs to be informed by more accurate predictions of animal biodiversity responses environmental change. Ecological models make a substantial contribution this understanding, especially when they encode the biological mechanisms processes that give rise emergent patterns (population, community, properties dynamics). Here, distinction between ‘mechanistic’ ‘process‐based’ ecological is established review existing approaches. Mechanistic process‐based have made key advances understanding structure, function dynamics biodiversity, but are typically designed account for specific levels organisation spatiotemporal scales. Cross‐scale models, which predict co‐occurring at interacting scales space, time organisation, critical next step in predictive ecology. A way forward first capitalise on systematically evaluate ability scale‐explicit alternative Such model intercomparisons will reveal mechanism process transitions across fine broad scales, overcome approach‐specific barriers realism or tractability identify gaps necessitate development new fundamental principles. Key challenges surrounding complexity uncertainty would need addressed, while opportunities from big data can streamline integration multiple patterns, ambitious cross‐scale field studies also needed. Crucially, overcoming modelling unite disparate fields ecology with common goal improving evidence‐base safeguard ecosystems under novel

Language: Английский

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Ecological dynamics of moa extinctions reveal convergent refugia that today harbour flightless birds

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(8), P. 1472 - 1481

Published: July 24, 2024

Language: Английский

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