Reviews of Geophysics,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
61(1)
Published: Feb. 16, 2023
Abstract
Tipping
elements
are
components
of
the
Earth
system
which
may
respond
nonlinearly
to
anthropogenic
climate
change
by
transitioning
toward
substantially
different
long‐term
states
upon
passing
key
thresholds
or
“tipping
points.”
In
some
cases,
such
changes
could
produce
additional
greenhouse
gas
emissions
radiative
forcing
that
compound
global
warming.
Improved
understanding
tipping
is
important
for
predicting
future
risks
and
their
impacts.
Here
we
review
mechanisms,
predictions,
impacts,
knowledge
gaps
associated
with
10
notable
proposed
be
elements.
We
evaluate
approaching
critical
whether
shifts
manifest
rapidly
over
longer
timescales.
Some
have
a
higher
risk
crossing
points
under
middle‐of‐the‐road
pathways
will
possibly
affect
major
ecosystems,
patterns,
and/or
carbon
cycling
within
21st
century.
However,
literature
assessing
scenarios
indicates
strong
potential
reduce
impacts
many
through
mitigation.
The
studies
synthesized
in
our
suggest
most
do
not
possess
abrupt
years,
exhibit
behavior,
rather
responding
more
predictably
directly
magnitude
forcing.
Nevertheless,
uncertainties
remain
elements,
highlighting
an
acute
need
further
research
modeling
better
constrain
risks.
National Science Review,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
10(5)
Published: Feb. 24, 2023
Identifying
the
thresholds
of
drought
that,
if
crossed,
suppress
vegetation
functioning
is
vital
for
accurate
quantification
how
land
ecosystems
respond
to
climate
variability
and
change.
We
present
a
globally
applicable
framework
identify
responses
different
levels
known
soil-moisture
deficits
using
four
remotely
sensed
proxies
spanning
2001-2018.
The
identified
represent
critical
inflection
points
changing
from
highly
resistant
vulnerable
in
response
stress,
as
warning
signal
substantial
impacts.
Drought
varied
geographically,
with
much
lower
percentiles
anomalies
vegetated
areas
covered
by
more
forests,
corresponding
comparably
stronger
capacity
mitigate
soil
water
deficit
stress
forested
ecosystems.
Generally,
those
are
detected
humid
climates.
State-of-the-art
models,
however,
overestimated
moisture
(i.e.
overestimating
impacts),
especially
higher
forest
covers
arid
few
covers.
Based
on
model
projections,
we
predict
that
risk
damage
will
increase
end
twenty-first
century
some
hotspots
like
East
Asia,
Europe,
Amazon,
southern
Australia
eastern
Africa.
Our
data-based
results
inform
projections
future
impacts
terrestrial
provide
an
effective
tool
management.
Global Change Biology,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
28(10), P. 3365 - 3378
Published: March 5, 2022
Unprecedented
tree
dieback
across
Central
Europe
caused
by
recent
global
change-type
drought
events
highlights
the
need
for
a
better
mechanistic
understanding
of
drought-induced
mortality.
Although
numerous
physiological
risk
factors
have
been
identified,
importance
two
principal
mechanisms,
hydraulic
failure
and
carbon
starvation,
is
still
debated.
It
further
remains
largely
unresolved
how
local
neighborhood
composition
affects
individual
mortality
risk.
We
studied
9435
young
trees
12
temperate
species
planted
in
diversity
experiment
2013
to
assess
traits,
dynamics,
pest
infestation,
height
competition
influence
Following
most
extreme
since
record
2018,
one
third
these
died.
Across
species,
safety
margins
(HSMs)
were
negatively
shift
towards
higher
sugar
fraction
non-structural
carbohydrate
(NSC)
pool
positively
associated
with
Moreover,
infested
bark
beetles
had
risk,
taller
lower
Most
interactions
beneficial,
although
effects
highly
species-specific.
Species
that
suffered
more
from
drought,
especially
Larix
spp.
Betula
spp.,
tended
increase
survival
probability
their
neighbors
vice
versa.
While
severe
tissue
dehydration
marks
final
stage
mortality,
we
show
interrelated
series
other,
mutually
inclusive
processes.
These
include
shifts
NSC
pools
driven
osmotic
adjustment
and/or
starch
depletion
as
well
infestation
are
modulated
size
identity
its
neighbors.
A
holistic
view
accounts
multiple
causes
required
improve
predictions
trends
forest
dynamics
identify
beneficial
combinations.
Plant Biology,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
24(7), P. 1132 - 1145
Published: Sept. 14, 2022
During
the
particularly
severe
hot
summer
drought
in
2018,
widespread
premature
leaf
senescence
was
observed
several
broadleaved
tree
species
Central
Europe,
European
beech
(Fagus
sylvatica
L.).
For
beech,
it
is
yet
unknown
whether
evoked
a
decline
towards
mortality
or
trees
can
recover
longer
term.
In
this
study,
we
monitored
crown
dieback,
and
secondary
damage
symptoms
963
initially
live
that
exhibited
either
normal
2018
three
regions
northern
Switzerland
from
to
2021.
We
related
multiple
climate-
stand-related
parameters.
Cumulative
continuously
increased
up
7.2%
1.3%
2021
for
with
respectively.
Mean
dieback
surviving
peaked
at
29.2%
2020
8.1%
2019
senescence,
Thereafter,
showed
first
signs
of
recovery.
Crown
more
pronounced
recovery
slower
growing
on
drier
sites,
larger
trees.
The
presence
bleeding
cankers
24.6%
10.7%
bark
beetle
holes
22.8%
14.8%
Both
occurred
frequently
had
higher
proportions
and/or
2018.
Our
findings
demonstrate
context-specific
differences
reflecting
importance
regional
local
climate
soil
conditions.
Adapting
management
increase
forest
resilience
gaining
importance,
given
expected
further
dry
sites
Switzerland.
Reviews of Geophysics,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
61(1)
Published: Feb. 16, 2023
Abstract
Tipping
elements
are
components
of
the
Earth
system
which
may
respond
nonlinearly
to
anthropogenic
climate
change
by
transitioning
toward
substantially
different
long‐term
states
upon
passing
key
thresholds
or
“tipping
points.”
In
some
cases,
such
changes
could
produce
additional
greenhouse
gas
emissions
radiative
forcing
that
compound
global
warming.
Improved
understanding
tipping
is
important
for
predicting
future
risks
and
their
impacts.
Here
we
review
mechanisms,
predictions,
impacts,
knowledge
gaps
associated
with
10
notable
proposed
be
elements.
We
evaluate
approaching
critical
whether
shifts
manifest
rapidly
over
longer
timescales.
Some
have
a
higher
risk
crossing
points
under
middle‐of‐the‐road
pathways
will
possibly
affect
major
ecosystems,
patterns,
and/or
carbon
cycling
within
21st
century.
However,
literature
assessing
scenarios
indicates
strong
potential
reduce
impacts
many
through
mitigation.
The
studies
synthesized
in
our
suggest
most
do
not
possess
abrupt
years,
exhibit
behavior,
rather
responding
more
predictably
directly
magnitude
forcing.
Nevertheless,
uncertainties
remain
elements,
highlighting
an
acute
need
further
research
modeling
better
constrain
risks.