Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(1)

Published: Jan. 7, 2021

Abstract The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, radiative power fires, and extraordinary number fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched historical record. Australia’s hottest driest year on record, 2019, characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads primed landscape to burn when exposed dangerous fire weather ignition. combination climate variability long-term trends generated extremes experienced compounding effects two or more modes their fire-promoting phases (as occurred 2019) has historically increased chances large occurring Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates tropical Pacific Indian ocean are now unusually frequent compared with natural pre-industrial times. Indicators danger have already emerged outside range experience, suggesting projections made than a decade ago increases climate-driven risk would be detectable 2020, indeed eventuated. multiple change contributors Australia, as well observed non-linear escalation extent intensity, raise likelihood may continue rapidly intensify future. Improving local national adaptation measures while pursuing ambitious global mitigation efforts provide best strategy for limiting further

Language: Английский

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Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(2), P. 87 - 101

Published: Jan. 31, 2023

Language: Английский

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Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(3), P. 232 - 234

Published: Feb. 14, 2022

Language: Английский

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Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective

Environmental Research Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 012001 - 012001

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and harms experienced on ground by people, property, nature. It therefore allows disentangling of different drivers from human-induced change hence provides valuable information adapt assess loss damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out reach. This due limitations in science, including capacity for studying types as well geographical heterogeneity both impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge influences five hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), impacts recent events each type, thus degree which various are attributable change. For instance, heat extremes have increased likelihood intensity worldwide with tens thousands deaths directly attributable. likely a significant underestimate limited availability lower- middle-income countries. Meanwhile, cyclone rainfall storm surge height individual across all basins. In North Atlantic basin, amplified that, combined, caused half trillion USD damages. At same time, severe droughts many parts world not To advance our understanding present-day developments several levels required. These include improving recording around world, coverage studies regions, using explore contributions non-climate impacts.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide

Annual Review of Plant Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 73(1), P. 673 - 702

Published: March 1, 2022

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data understanding identify whether these represent a trend toward increasing mortality. Here, we document events sudden unexpected drought in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk exposure. These underscore the fact may affect forests with force future. use as examples highlight current difficulties challenges for realistically predicting such uncertainties future condition. Advances remote sensing technology greater availably high-resolution data, from field assessments satellites, are needed improve prediction responses change. Expected final online publication date Annual Review Plant Biology, Volume 73 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates revised estimates.

Language: Английский

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Climate change and the aridification of North America

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 117(22), P. 11856 - 11858

Published: May 19, 2020

Discussions of droughts and their impacts often center on the lack precipitation, just as assessments hydrologic under a changing climate most focus how average precipitation in given locale is likely to change future. Within science, however, has begun include growing role warming temperatures are playing potent driver greater aridity: hotter extremes; drier soil conditions; more severe drought; stress rivers, forests, agriculture, other systems. This shift paradigm clear American Southwest, where declining flows region’s two important Colorado (Fig. 1) Rio Grande, have been attributed part increasing caused by human activities, notably burning fossil fuels (1⇓⇓⇓–5). Warmer summers also reduce Columbia River, well rivers along Sierra Nevada California (6). Now, an study (7) documents causing flow declines northern Rocky Mountains largest river basin United States, Missouri. work further highlights mechanisms behind temperature-driven places anthropogenic progressively risk hot drought arid conditions across expanding swath States. Fig. 1. Climate Southwest aridify. ( Left ) Since 1930s, percentage going evapotranspiration (ET) increase at expense River flow, resulting unprecedented still ongoing megadrought (shading) starting 1999 (8). Right Higher already reduced 13%, projected additional warming, … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: overpeck{at}umich.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Language: Английский

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Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 380(6646), P. 743 - 749

Published: May 18, 2023

Climate change and human activities increasingly threaten lakes that store 87% of Earth’s liquid surface fresh water. Yet, recent trends drivers lake volume remain largely unknown globally. Here, we analyze the 1972 largest global using three decades satellite observations, climate data, hydrologic models, finding statistically significant storage declines for 53% these water bodies over period 1992–2020. The net loss in natural is attributable to warming, increasing evaporative demand, consumption, whereas sedimentation dominates losses reservoirs. We estimate roughly one-quarter world’s population resides a basin drying lake, underscoring necessity incorporating impacts into sustainable resources management.

Language: Английский

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The 2018–2020 Multi‐Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(3)

Published: March 1, 2022

During the period 2018–2020, Europe experienced a series of hot and dry weather conditions with significant socioeconomic environmental consequences. Yet, extremity these multi-year is not recognized. Here, we provide comprehensive spatio-temporal assessment drought hazard over by benchmarking past exceptional events during from 1766 to 2020. We identified 2018–2020 event as new benchmark having an unprecedented intensity that persisted for more than 2 years, exhibiting mean areal coverage 35.6% average duration 12.2 months. What makes this truly compared its near-surface air temperature anomaly reaching +2.8 K, which constitutes further evidence ongoing global warming exacerbating present events. Furthermore, future based on climate model simulations Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 suggest should be prepared comparable but durations longer any those in last 250 years. Our study thus emphasizes urgent need adaption mitigation strategies cope such across Europe.

Language: Английский

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Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO2

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Aug. 19, 2022

Water availability plays a critical role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems, particularly low- and mid-latitude regions. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to precipitation strongly regulates global dynamics their responses drought, yet changes response climate change remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term satellite observations combined with dynamic statistical learning approach examine the greenness over past four decades. We observe robust increase (0.624% yr−1) for drylands, decrease (−0.618% wet Using model simulations, show that contrasting trends between dry regions are caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2). eCO2 universally decreases reducing leaf-level transpiration, However, this transpiration reduction is overridden at canopy scale large proportional leaf area. increased drylands implies potential ecosystem stability greater impacts droughts these vulnerable ecosystems under continued change. Changes may be hydroclimate dependent. authors reveal vs. wetter last 4 decades identify as major contributing factor.

Language: Английский

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U.S. fires became larger, more frequent, and more widespread in the 2000s

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(11)

Published: March 16, 2022

Recent fires have fueled concerns that regional and global warming trends are leading to more extreme burning. We found compelling evidence average fire events in regions of the United States up four times size, triple frequency, widespread 2000s than previous two decades. Moreover, most also larger, common, likely co-occur with other fires. This documented shift burning patterns across country aligns palpable change dynamics noted by media, public, fire-fighting officials.

Language: Английский

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