What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’?

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(12), P. 125011 - 125011

Published: Nov. 12, 2021

Abstract Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth’s climate and ecological systems, cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed studied. The activation such would impose a considerable risk for human societies biosphere integrity. However, there ambiguities description within literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns multiple emerge from very simple coupling two previously studied idealized elements. In particular, distinguish between phase cascade, domino cascade joint cascade. A mitigation an unfolding may be common early warning indicators sensitive to upcoming critical transitions certain degree. contrast, hardly stopped once initiated slowing down-based fail indicate following element. These potentials intervention anticipation across distinct should seen call more precise future analyses cascading arising element Earth system.

Language: Английский

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Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(1857)

Published: June 27, 2022

Global warming, habitat loss and overexploitation of limited resources are leading to alarming biodiversity declines. Ecosystems complex adaptive systems that display multiple alternative states can shift from one another in abrupt ways. Some these tipping points have been identified predicted by mathematical computational models. Moreover, scales involved potential mitigation or intervention scenarios tied particular levels complexity, cells human–environment coupled systems. In dealing with a biosphere where humans part complex, endangered ecological network, novel theoretical engineering approaches need be considered. At the centre most research efforts is biodiversity, which essential maintain community resilience ecosystem services. What done mitigate, counterbalance prevent points? Using 30-year window, we explore recent sense, preserve restore as well number proposed interventions (from afforestation bioengineering) directed mitigate reverse collapse. The year 2050 taken representative future horizon combines time scale deep changes will occur solutions might effective. This article theme issue ‘Ecological complexity biosphere: next 30 years’.

Language: Английский

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Phase-separation physics underlies new theory for the resilience of patchy ecosystems

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(2)

Published: Jan. 3, 2023

Spatial self-organization of ecosystems into large-scale (from micron to meters) patterns is an important phenomenon in ecology, enabling organisms cope with harsh environmental conditions and buffering ecosystem degradation. Scale-dependent feedbacks provide the predominant conceptual framework for self-organized spatial patterns, explaining regular observed in, e.g., arid or mussel beds. Here, we highlight alternative mechanism based on aggregation a biotic abiotic species, such as herbivores, sediment, nutrients. Using generalized mathematical model, demonstrate that aggregation-driven have fundamentally different dynamics resilience properties than formed through scale-dependent feedbacks. Building physics theory phase-separation dynamics, show patchy are more vulnerable systems feedbacks, especially at small scales. This because local disturbances can trigger redistribution resources, amplifying Finally, insights from physics, by providing mechanistic understanding initiation their tendency coarsen, new indicator signal proximity ecological tipping points subsequent degradation this class ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Universal early warning signals of phase transitions in climate systems

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 20(201)

Published: April 1, 2023

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modelling techniques quite difficult. This has led the development alternative suite methods that seek identify signatures critical phenomena data, are expected occur advance many classes dynamical bifurcation. Crucially, manifestations generic across variety systems, meaning data-intensive deep learning can be trained on (abundant) synthetic data plausibly prove effective when transferred (more limited) empirical datasets. paper provides proof concept this approach as applied lattice phase transitions: neural network exclusively two-dimensional Ising model transitions tested number real simulated climate with considerable success. Its accuracy frequently surpasses conventional statistical indicators, performance shown consistently improved by inclusion spatial indicators. Tools such may offer valuable insight into events, remote sensing measurements provide increasingly abundant geospatially resolved Earth systems.

Language: Английский

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The hidden order of Turing patterns in arid and semi‐arid vegetation ecosystems

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(42)

Published: Oct. 10, 2023

Vegetation Turing patterns play a critical role in the ecological functioning of arid and semi-arid ecosystems. However, long-range spatial features these have been neglected compared to short-range like patch shape wavelength. Drawing inspiration from hyperuniform structures material science, we find that vegetation pattern exhibits dispersion similar hyperuniformity. As degree hyperuniformity increases, so does water-use efficiency vegetation. This finding supports previous studies suggest represent spatially optimized self-organization ecosystems for water acquisition. The Turing-type significant slowing down near tipping point, indicating non-negligible transient dynamical behavior. Reduced rainfall not only decreases resilience steady state ecosystem but also slows rate optimization long regimes. We propose indicates after strong, short-term disturbances. Spatially heterogeneous disturbances reduce lead longer recovery times than homogeneous maintain

Language: Английский

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