Public Health Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Dec. 30, 2024
Language: Английский
Cell, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 187(6), P. 1374 - 1386.e13
Published: Feb. 29, 2024
The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five regions together air traffic epidemiological data. Our reveal community prior detection, case reporting throughout the epidemic, large degree heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played limited role prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting travel bans would have had only minor impact. North America began declining before more than 10% high-risk individuals USA vaccine-induced immunity. findings highlight importance broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases joint integration genomic information early outbreak control.
Language: Английский
Citations
30
Epidemics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 47, P. 100755 - 100755
Published: March 2, 2024
In June of 2022, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Mpox Response wanted timely answers to important epidemiological questions which can now be answered more effectively through infectious disease modeling. Infectious models have shown valuable tools decision making during outbreaks; however, model complexity often makes communicating results limitations makers difficult. We performed nowcasting forecasting 2022 mpox outbreak in United States using R package EpiNow2. generated nowcasts/forecasts at national level, by Census region, jurisdictions reporting greatest number cases. Modeling were shared situational awareness within CDC publicly on website. retrospectively evaluated forecast predictions four key phases (early, exponential growth, peak, decline) three metrics, weighted interval score, mean absolute error, prediction coverage. compared performance EpiNow2 with a naïve Bayesian generalized linear (GLM). The had less probabilistic error than GLM every phase except early phase. share our experiences an existing tool nowcasting/forecasting highlight areas improvement development future tools. also reflect lessons learned regarding data quality issues adapting modeling different audiences.
Language: Английский
Citations
11
Eurosurveillance, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 29(17)
Published: April 25, 2024
BackgroundFollowing the 2022-2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks.AimWe combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies two cities Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of outbreaks among men who have sex (MSM).MethodsSerum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) Rotterdam or Amsterdam following peak Dutch outbreak introduction vaccination. For visiting CSH, sera linked epidemiological vaccination data. An in-house developed ELISA was used detect vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific IgG. These observations published data serial interval vaccine effectiveness inform a stochastic transmission model that estimates outbreaks.ResultsThe VACV-specific antibodies 45.4% 47.1% Amsterdam, respectively. Transmission showed group original likely small. However, assuming different scenarios, number cases would be markedly reduced because Simultaneously, current level alone may not prevent outbreaks. Maintaining short time-to-diagnosis is key component any strategy new outbreaks.ConclusionOur findings indicate likelihood large under conditions, but emphasise importance maintaining population immunity, diagnostic capacities disease awareness.
Language: Английский
Citations
8
Epidemiology and Infection, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 151
Published: Jan. 1, 2023
Human monkeypox (mpox) virus is a viral zoonosis that belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus of Poxviridae family, which presents with similar symptoms as those seen in human smallpox patients. Mpox an increasing concern globally, over 80,000 cases non-endemic countries December 2022. In this review, we provide brief history and ecology mpox, its basic virology, key differences mpox fitness traits before after We summarize critique current knowledge from epidemiological mathematical models, within-host between-host transmission models using One Health approach, where distinguish between focus on immunity vaccination, geography, climatic variables, well animal models. report various parameters, such reproduction number,
Language: Английский
Citations
17
Clinical Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 79(1), P. 122 - 129
Published: April 3, 2024
Abstract Background After months of few mpox cases, an increase in cases was reported Chicago during May 2023, predominantly among fully vaccinated (FV) patients. We investigated the outbreak scope, differences between and unvaccinated patients, hypotheses for monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection after vaccination. Methods interviewed patients reviewed medical records to assess demographic, behavioral, clinical characteristics; vaccine status; administration routes. evaluated serum antibody levels compared patient viral genomes with MPXV sequences available databases. discussed potential compromise partners who manufactured, handled, administered associated breakthrough infections. Results During 18 March–27 June we identified 49 cases; 57% these were FV. FV received both JYNNEOS doses subcutaneously (57%), intradermally (7%), or via heterologous (36%). had more median sex (3; interquartile range [IQR] = 1–4) versus not (1; IQR 1–2). Thirty-six 37 sequenced specimens belonged lineage B.1.20 clade IIb MPXV, which did demonstrate any amino acid changes relative B.1, predominant from 2022. Vaccinated demonstrated expected humoral responses; none hospitalized. No storage excursions identified. Approximately 63% people at risk this period. Conclusions Our investigation indicated that likely due frequent behaviors transmission, even relatively high effectiveness coverage. Cases vaccination might occur similar populations.
Language: Английский
Citations
7
Eurosurveillance, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 29(21)
Published: May 23, 2024
BackgroundIn 2022 and 2023, a global outbreak of mpox affected mostly gay, bisexual other men having sex with (GBMSM). Outbreak control in the Netherlands included isolation, quarantine, post-exposure prophylaxis vaccination primary preventive (PPV).AimWe describe course outbreak, programme, vaccine effectiveness (VE) full against symptomatic disease, trends behaviour to generate hypotheses about factors that influenced outbreak's decline.MethodsIn this observational study, we collected data from public health services on notified cases, number PPV invitations doses administered. We calculated uptake coverage. Trends behavioural GBMSM visiting sexual centres were analysed for all consultations 2022. estimated VE using screening method.ResultsUntil 31 December 1,294 cases reported. The peaked early July then declined sharply. started 25 2022; total 29,851 administered, 45.8% received at least one dose, 35.4% fully vaccinated. was 68.2% (95% CI 4.3-89.5%). did not observe an evident decrease high-risk behaviour.DiscussionIt is unlikely driver decline, as incidence decline well before start programme. possible impact change could be demonstrated available indicators, however, had limitations, hampering interpretation. hypothesise infection-induced immunity groups important factor explaining decline.
Language: Английский
Citations
7
Deleted Journal, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(26), P. 619 - 623
Published: Jan. 1, 2024
Since May 2022, a global outbreak of mpox has emerged in more than 100 non-endemic countries. As December 2023, over 90,000 cases had been reported. The predominantly affected men who have sex with (MSM), sexual contact identified as the principal mode transmission.
Language: Английский
Citations
6
The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Sept. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
5
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 107792 - 107792
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
The global mpox (clade II) outbreak of 2022 primarily affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with (GBM) was met swift community public health responses. We aimed to estimate the relative impact changes in sexual behaviours, contact tracing/isolation, first-dose vaccination on transmission Canadian cities. estimated behaviours during using data from Engage Cohort Study which recruited self-identified GBM Montréal, Toronto, Vancouver (n=1,445). developed a dynamic model averted fraction new infections attributable three interventions each city. empirical estimates were imprecise: 20% (RR=0.80; 95% credible intervals [95%CrI]: 0.47-1.36) fewer partners past 6 months among those reporting ≤7 33% (RR=0.67; 95%CrI: 0.31-1.43) >7 partners. combined 46%-58% cases. Reductions partners, tracing/isolation prevented approximately 12% 14% cases, respectively. Vaccination's effect varied across cities by start date coverage, 21%-39% prevented. Reduction activity, all contributed accelerating epidemic control. Early had largest impact.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Emerging Microbes & Infections, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Feb. 20, 2025
The unanticipated emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and rapid spread mpox epidemic in 2022 2024 brought unforeseen challenges to public health. While distinct nature, these outbreaks share some similarities offer valuable insights into responding novel virus dissemination vulnerable populations. In light two experiences, we aim discern prioritization medical countermeasures (MCM) among antivirals, antibodies vaccines.
Language: Английский
Citations
0