Does ERA‐5 Outperform Other Reanalysis Products for Hydrologic Applications in India?

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 124(16), P. 9423 - 9441

Published: Aug. 9, 2019

Abstract Global reanalysis products are extensively used for hydrologic applications in sparse data regions. European Centre Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Re‐Analysis version 5 (ERA‐5), among the new‐era products, has been significantly improved horizontal and vertical resolutions assimilation. However, (ERA‐5, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, ERA‐Interim, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis Research Applications 2, Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis Project) have not evaluated India specially to understand if ERA‐5 outperforms other or not. Here we use five monsoon (June–September) season precipitation, maximum ( T max ) minimum min temperatures, total runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture against observations from Meteorological Department 1980–2018. We a well‐calibrated hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model) simulate variables using forcing products. In addition, streamflow annual water budget two basins located diverse climatic settings India. Our results show that , moisture. performs better than runoff Performance is either comparable river basins. Overall, find can be assessments

Language: Английский

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Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas: A review

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 209, P. 103324 - 103324

Published: Aug. 12, 2020

The greatest impacts of climate change on ecosystems, wildlife and humans often arise from extreme events rather than changes in climatic means. Northern high latitudes, including the Arctic, experience a variety climate-related events, yet there has been little attempt to synthesize information this region. This review surveys work various types northern addressing (1) evidence for variations based analyses recent historical data (2) projected primarily studies utilizing global models. survey weather includes temperature, precipitation, snow, freezing rain, atmospheric blocking, cyclones, wind. also cryospheric biophysical impacts: sea ice rapid loss Greenland Ice Sheet melt, floods, drought, wildfire, coastal erosion, terrestrial marine ecosystems. Temperature rank at end spectra confidence future change, while flooding cyclones lower end. Research priorities identified basis include greater use high-resolution models observing system enhancements that target events. There is need further attribution, ecosystems humans, thresholds or tipping points may be triggered by latitudes.

Language: Английский

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Exceptional warming over the Barents area

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: June 15, 2022

In recent decades, surface air temperature (SAT) data from Global reanalyses points to maximum warming over the northern Barents area. However, a scarcity of observations hampers confidence in this Arctic hotspot region. Here, we study past 20-40 years based on new available SAT and quality controlled comprehensive dataset archipelagos Sea. We identify statistically significant record-high annual up 2.7 °C per decade, with autumn 4.0 decade. Our results are compared most global regional reanalysis sets, as well remote sensing records sea ice concentration (SIC), (SST) high-resolution charts. The pattern is primarily consistent reductions cover confirms general spatial temporal patterns represented by reanalyses. our findings suggest even stronger rate SIC-SAT relation than was known region until now.

Language: Английский

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Past perspectives on the present era of abrupt Arctic climate change

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(8), P. 714 - 721

Published: July 29, 2020

Language: Английский

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Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Frontiers in Earth Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 9

Published: Aug. 20, 2021

As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to warming and its seasonal hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture observed pattern surface- winter-dominated Arctic that has outpaced both tropical Antarctic recent decades. For CMIP5 CMIP6, CO 2 quadrupling experiments reveal lapse-rate surface albedo feedbacks contribute most stronger than tropics or Antarctic. The relative strength feedback comparison is sensitive choice radiative kernel, contributes intermodel spread at poles. By separately calculating moist dry atmospheric heat transport, show increased poleward moisture transport another important driver amplification largest contributor projected warming. Seasonal ocean storage winter-amplified temperature winter peak weaker In CMIP5, results from larger poles, combined less-negative cloud However, normalizing by global-mean yields similar degree only slightly

Language: Английский

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Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite retrieval

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget its components. The newly available observation data Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory Study Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range analyses validation order to advance our understanding potential deficiencies. In present study, we analyze deficiencies radiative over sea ice ERA5 global atmospheric by comparing against winter MOSAiC campaign data, well as, pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS temperature remote sensing product. We find that can simulate timing radiatively clear periods, though it is not able distinguish two observed states, opaquely cloudy, distribution net budget. has conditional error with positive bias conditions negative cloudy conditions. mean 4°C situations at up 15°C some parts Arctic. spatial variability temperature, given 4 sites MOSAiC, captured due resolution but represented satellite sensitivity analysis possible sources, using products snow depth thickness, shows during events are, large extent, caused insufficient thickness system. A characterizes regions greater than 1.5 m, while thinner partly compensated effect snow.

Language: Английский

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Arctic Warming Revealed by Multiple CMIP6 Models: Evaluation of Historical Simulations and Quantification of Future Projection Uncertainties

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 34(12), P. 4871 - 4892

Published: March 19, 2021

Abstract The Arctic has experienced a warming rate higher than the global mean in past decades, but previous studies show that there are large uncertainties associated with future temperature projections. In this study, near-surface temperatures analyzed from 22 models participating phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Compared ERA5 reanalysis, most CMIP6 underestimate observed during 1979–2014. largest cold biases found over Greenland Sea Barents Sea, and Kara Sea. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 scenarios, multimodel ensemble exhibits significant is more twice global/Northern Hemisphere mean. spread contributor to overall uncertainty projections, which accounts for 55.4% total at start projections 2015 remains 32.9% end 2095. Internal variability 39.3% decreases 6.5% twenty-first century, while scenario rapidly increases 5.3% 60.7% period It model consistent bias oceanic regions models, connected excessive sea ice area caused by weak Atlantic poleward heat transport. These results suggest intermodel exist models’ simulation projection different responses ocean land greenhouse gas forcing. Future research needs pay attention characteristics mechanisms Ocean reduce spread.

Language: Английский

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Meteorological conditions during the MOSAiC expedition

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2021

This article sets the near-surface meteorological conditions during Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for Study of Arctic Climate expedition in context interannual variability and extremes within past 4 decades. Hourly ERA5 reanalysis data Polarstern trajectory 1979–2020 are analyzed. The were relatively normal given that they mostly interquartile range preceding Nevertheless, some anomalous even record-breaking did occur, particularly synoptic events. Extreme cases warm, moist air transported from northern North Atlantic or northwestern Siberia into identified late fall until early spring. Daily temperature total column water vapor classified as being among top-ranking warmest/wettest days based on full record. Associated with this, longwave radiative fluxes at surface extremely these winter cases. spring period was characterized by more frequent storm events median cyclone intensity ranking top 25th percentile During summer, near melting point than a month longer usual, July August 2020 mean all-time warmest wettest. These record embedded large positive moisture anomalies over whole central Arctic. In contrast, unusually cold occurred beginning November 2019 March 2020, related to Oscillation. March, this linked anomalously strong persistent northerly winds associated occurrence southeast Polarstern.

Language: Английский

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An evaluation of surface meteorology and fluxes over the Iceland and Greenland Seas in ERA5 reanalysis: The impact of sea ice distribution

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 147(734), P. 691 - 712

Published: Oct. 29, 2020

Abstract The Iceland and Greenland Seas are a crucial region for the climate system, being headwaters of lower limb Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Investigating atmosphere–ocean–ice processes in this often necessitates use meteorological reanalyses—a representation atmospheric state based on assimilation observations into numerical weather prediction system. Knowing quality reanalysis products is vital their proper use. Here we evaluate surface‐layer meteorology surface turbulent fluxes winter spring latest from European Centre Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, i.e., ERA5. In situ buoy, research vessel, aircraft during Iceland–Greenland Project provide unparalleled coverage climatically important region. independent They allow comprehensive evaluation these subpolar seas and, first time, specific focus marginal ice zone. Over ice‐free ocean, ERA5 generally compares well to fluxes. However, over zone, correspondence noticeably less accurate: example, root‐mean‐square errors significantly higher temperature, wind speed, sensible heat flux. primary reason difference an overly smooth sea‐ice distribution boundary conditions used Particularly unrepresented variability uncertainties how parameterize exchange compromise reanalyses. A parallel higher‐resolution forecast fields Met Office's Unified Model corroborates findings.

Language: Английский

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Evaluating satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation datasets with gauge-observed data and hydrological modeling in the Xihe River Basin, China

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 234, P. 104746 - 104746

Published: Nov. 5, 2019

Language: Английский

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