Climate and land use change through the eyes of two endemic amphibians: Temporal trajectories of suitability and connectivity reveal differential responses

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 302, P. 110971 - 110971

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Language: Английский

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A comparative analysis of data mining techniques for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction in the eastern Mediterranean

Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 197, P. 106925 - 106925

Published: April 10, 2022

Drought is a natural hazard which affects ecosystems in the eastern Mediterranean. However, limited historical data for drought monitoring and forecasting are available Thus, implementing machine learning (ML) algorithms could allow prediction of future events. In this context, main goals research were to capture agricultural hydrological trends by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) assess applicability four ML (bagging (BG), random subspace (RSS), tree (RT), forest (RF)) predicting events Mediterranean based on SPI-3 SPI-12. The results reveal that (SPI-12, −24) was more severe over study area, where most stations showed significant (p < 0.05) negative trend. accuracy varied relation implementation stage. training stage, RT outperformed other (Root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.3, Correlation Coefficient (r) 0.97); performance can be ranked as follows: > RF BG RSS both testing had highest correlation r (observed vs. predicted) (0.58–0.64) lowest RMSE (0.68–0.88). contrast, (0.3–0.41) (0.94–1.10) calculated algorithm. dynamic capturing, with correlation. validation satisfactory (RMSE 0.62–0.83, 0.58–0.79). output will help decision-makers mitigation plans new algorithms.

Language: Английский

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Drought Monitoring and Forecasting across Turkey: A Contemporary Review

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(7), P. 6080 - 6080

Published: March 31, 2023

One of the critical consequences climate change at both local and regional scales is a in patterns extreme events such as droughts. Focusing on different types droughts, their quantifying indices, associated indicators, sources data (remote sensing (RS)/in situ measurements), this article reviewed recent studies (from 2010 to 2022) that have explored drought features Turkey. To end, total 71 articles were selected from Web Science (WoS) Scopus databases. The papers clustered into two categories: (i) monitoring (ii) forecasting articles. Then, representative detail regarding implemented models (techniques), case study area, source indicators used derive indices. review results showed most aimed meteorological forecasting. An increasing trend was also observed use machine learning for short-term hydrological prediction. On other hand, emerging RS technology satellite-driven rarely country. there room more research agricultural monitoring, forecasting, pattern detection

Language: Английский

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A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes

Climate Services, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 30, P. 100351 - 100351

Published: Feb. 1, 2023

Climate projections are a powerful tool that can help decision makers to timely prepare adaptation policies, which may then be efficiently implemented. In this study, comprehensive analysis of how climate change affect Portugal (located in hotspot) is conducted, providing the foundations first National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100. A multi-variable ensemble was built and tested, being baseline assessing future three different emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) throughout 21st century, accounting model's ability simulate set variables. warmer drier projected mainland, more severe interior regions. Even optimistic RCP2.6 scenario, results indicate increases temperature between 1 2 °C comparison with historical period surpass 6 some regions RCP8.5. Extreme hot events will frequent severe, maximum temperatures above 45 common century. decline precipitation expected mostly summer intermediate seasons, losses 40 % end-of-century. However, an intensification heavy short-term rainfall increase northern rising wind gusts also these Such call urgent planning measures safeguard critical sectors Portuguese society. Finally, information here produced examined constitutes key example services mitigation Portugal.

Language: Английский

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High-resolution downscaling of CMIP6 Earth system and global climate models using deep learning for Iberia

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(1), P. 229 - 259

Published: Jan. 12, 2024

Abstract. Deep learning (DL) methods have recently garnered attention from the climate change community for being an innovative approach to downscaling variables Earth system and global models (ESGCMs) with horizontal resolutions still too coarse represent regional- local-scale phenomena. In context of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), ESGCM simulations were conducted Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at ranging 0.70 3.75∘. Here, four convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures evaluated their ability downscale, a resolution 0.1∘, seven CMIP6 ESGCMs over Iberian Peninsula – known hotspot, due its increased vulnerability projected future warming drying conditions. The study is divided into three stages: (1) evaluating performance CNN in predicting mean, minimum, maximum temperatures, as well daily precipitation, trained using ERA5 data compared Iberia01 observational dataset; (2) further ensemble against Iberia01; (3) constructing multi-model CNN-based downscaled projections temperature precipitation 0.1∘ throughout 21st century under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Upon validation satisfactory evaluation, DL demonstrate overall agreement magnitude sign changes. Moreover, advantages high-resolution are evident, offering substantial added value representing regional Iberia. Notably, clear trend observed Iberia, consistent previous studies this area, increases 2 ∘C, depending scenario. Regarding robust decreases western southwestern particularly after 2040. These results may offer new tool providing information adaptation strategies based prior next European branch Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) experiments.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal precipitation changes in the western Mediterranean Basin: The case of the Spanish mainland, 1916–2015

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 44(5), P. 1800 - 1815

Published: March 18, 2024

Abstract This study examines the spatial and temporal variations in seasonal precipitation patterns across Spanish mainland, within western Mediterranean Basin, spanning years 1916–2015. Utilizing recently developed MOPREDAS_century database at a 10 × km grid resolution, our analysis reveals predominantly negative trends area over entire period, primarily driven by declines spring precipitation, with lesser decreases summer winter. Notably, these exhibit complexity, manifesting as two distinct pulses occurring roughly outset conclusion of 20th century. However, upon employing moving windows analysis, we find that since mid‐1970s, have largely been nonsignificant. Spatially, regime 1916–2015 delineates three primary zones: winter‐maximum zone north, an autumn‐maximum along eastern coast, transition from to spring‐maximum towards inland regions. Noteworthy shifts this distribution are evident four 25‐year intervals examined. Initially, during 1916–1940, winter, autumn regimes occupied 44.1%, 24.2% 31.7% land, respectively. Subsequently, periods 1941–1965 1966–1990, winter dominance expanded 50% area, while varied between 34.7% 25.5%, decreased notably 12.4% 13.5%. Lastly, significant alterations occurred final period 1991–2015, coverage decreasing 33.7%, 15.8% expanding 50.1% area. In summary, prevalent dawn century transitioned autumn‐dominated regime, particularly much central possibly linked evolving trends. These findings contribute novel insights, pre‐1950, align published results post‐1950 Mediterranean, its Furthermore, they suggest potential connection changes moisture sources

Language: Английский

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The Catalan initiative for the Earth BioGenome Project: contributing local data to global biodiversity genomics

NAR Genomics and Bioinformatics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(3)

Published: July 2, 2024

Abstract The Catalan Initiative for the Earth BioGenome Project (CBP) is an EBP-affiliated project network aimed at sequencing genome of &gt;40 000 eukaryotic species estimated to live in Catalan-speaking territories (Catalan Linguistic Area, CLA). These represent a biodiversity hotspot. While covering less than 1% Europe, they are home about one fourth all known European species. include high proportion endemisms, many which threatened. This trend likely get worse as effects global change expected be particularly severe across Mediterranean Basin, freshwater ecosystems and mountain areas. Following EBP model, CBP networked organization that has been able engage scientific non-scientific partners. In pilot phase, genomes 52 being sequenced. As case study conservation, we highlight Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, sequenced under umbrella.

Language: Английский

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Dynamical downscaling of CMIP6 scenarios with ENEA-REG: an impact-oriented application for the Med-CORDEX region

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 62(5), P. 3261 - 3287

Published: Jan. 26, 2024

Abstract In the framework of coordinated regional modeling initiative Med-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), we present an updated version Earth System Model ENEA-REG designed to downscale, over Mediterranean basin, models used in Coupled Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The ESM includes coupled atmosphere (WRF), ocean (MITgcm), land (Noah-MP, embedded within WRF), and river (HD) components with spatial resolution 12 km for atmosphere, 1/12° 0.5° rooting model. For climate, performed a hindcast (i.e. reanalysis-driven) historical simulation (GCM-driven) 1980–2014 temporal period. evaluation shows that reliably reproduces mean state, variability relevant atmospheric variables. addition, analyze future evolution (2015–2100) Euro-Mediterranean climate under three different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), focusing on several essential variables indicators impacts. Among others, results highlight how, SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5, intensity, frequency duration marine heat waves continue increase until end century anomalies up 2 °C, which are considered extreme at beginning this century, will be so frequent become norm less than hundred years SSP5-8.5 scenario. Overall, our demonstrate improvement due high-resolution air–sea coupling representation high impact events, such as waves, sea-level height.

Language: Английский

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Spatial assessment of precipitation concentration and seasonality in Iraq

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 156(2)

Published: Jan. 30, 2025

Language: Английский

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Predicting climate-driven shift of the East Mediterranean endemic Cynara cornigera Lindl

Frontiers in Plant Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16

Published: Feb. 20, 2025

Climate change poses significant challenges to the distribution of endemics in Mediterranean region. Assessing impact climate on patterns is critical importance for understanding dynamics these terrestrial ecosystems under uncertainty future changes. The population size Cynara cornigera has declined significantly over previous century across its geographical This decline linked how ongoing affecting natural resources like water and capacity foraging sites. In fact, it distributed 3 fragmented locations Egypt (Wadi Hashem (5 individuals), Wadi Um Rakham (20 Burg El-Arab (4 individuals)). this study, we examined C. cornigera's response predicted next few decades (2020-2040 2061-2080) using species models (SDMs). Our analysis involved inclusion bioclimatic variables, SDM modeling process that incorporated five algorithms: generalized linear model (GLM), Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM). ensemble obtained high accuracy performance outcomes with a mean AUC 0.95 TSS 0.85 overall model. Notably, RF GLM algorithms outperformed other algorithms, underscoring their efficacy predicting Analysis relative variables revealed Precipitation wettest month (Bio13) (88.3%), warmest quarter (Bio18) (30%), driest (Bio14) (22%) as primary drivers shaping potential cornigera. findings spatial variations habitat suitability, highest observed Egypt, (especially Arishian sub sector), Palestine, Morocco, Northern Cyprus, different islands Sea Crete. Furthermore, our range would drop by more than 25% during decades. Surprisingly, area (SSP 126 scenario) 2061 2080 showed there increase suitable habitats area. It suitability along coastal strip Spain, Sardinia, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Aegean islands.

Language: Английский

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