Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(6), P. 2625 - 2658

Published: June 4, 2024

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence global system. However, successive IPCC reports published at intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used in Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open-data, open-science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show that, 2014–2023 decade average, observed was 1.19 [1.06 1.30] °C, which [1.0 1.4] °C human-induced. For single-year human-induced reached 1.31 [1.1 1.7] 2023 relative 1850–1900. best estimate below 2023-observed record 1.43 [1.32 1.53] indicating a substantial contribution internal variability record. Human-induced has been increasing rate that unprecedented instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] per over 2014–2023. This high caused combination net being persistent 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increase CO2 slowed compared 2000s, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change some presented here.

Language: Английский

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Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 22(18), P. 12221 - 12239

Published: Sept. 21, 2022

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime only several days, aerosol forcing responds quickly emissions. Here, we present and discuss evolution since 2000. There are multiple lines evidence allow us robustly conclude anthropogenic effective radiative (ERF) – both aerosol–radiation interactions (ERFari) aerosol–cloud (ERFaci) has become less negative globally, i.e. trend in changed sign from positive. Bottom-up inventories show primary precursor emissions declined most regions world; observations related burden declining trends, particular fine-mode particles make up aerosols; satellite retrievals cloud droplet numbers trends with declines consistent these sign, as do top-of-atmosphere radiation. Climate model results, including revised set is constrained by ocean heat content magnitude for positive relative year 2000 due reduced effects. This reduction leads an acceleration climate change, increase 0.1 0.3 W m−2, 12 % total 2019 compared 1750 according Intergovernmental Panel on Change (IPCC).

Language: Английский

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Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: April 3, 2024

Abstract The Earth’s energy imbalance is the net radiative flux at top-of-atmosphere. Climate model simulations suggest that observed positive trend in previous two decades inconsistent with internal variability alone and caused by anthropogenic forcing resulting climate system response. Here, we investigate contributions to using models forced sea-surface temperatures. We find effective due aerosol emission reductions has led a 0.2 ± 0.1 W m −2 decade −1 strengthening of 2001–2019 trend. multi-model ensemble reproduces 0.47 0.17 but 10-40% underestimation. With most future scenarios showing further rapid emissions air quality legislation, such may continue strengthen imbalance, on top greenhouse gas contribution. Consequently, expect an accelerated surface temperature warming this decade.

Language: Английский

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Amplification of warming on the Tibetan Plateau

Advances in Climate Change Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 493 - 501

Published: July 29, 2023

The accelerated warming over the Tibetan Plateau relative to global means has attracted considerable attention from scientific community. Nevertheless, timescale, seasonality and dominant causes of amplification have not been discussed. effect at different timescales was revealed in this study. Based on optimal fingerprinting attribution method, an study also conducted after selecting outperforming model simulations Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Results showed that manifested mid-1970s. annual during 1961–2018 0.13°C per decade. spring started later than all other seasons, strongest occurred winter. change displayed distinct decadal differences time scales shorter 30 years. updated models perform better simulating surface air temperature land scale whilst underestimating region, which a weak simulation. Overall, largest deviation comes result reveals stronger response human influence is direct cause amplification. This finding implies important role local climate feedback Plateau.

Language: Английский

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Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Dec. 27, 2023

Abstract Global heating of the Earth system is unequivocal. However, detecting an acceleration has remained elusive to date, despite suggestive evidence a potential increase in rates. In this study, we demonstrate that since 1960, warming world ocean accelerated at relatively consistent pace 0.15 ± 0.05 (W/m 2 )/decade, while land, cryosphere, and atmosphere have exhibited 0.013 0.003 )/decade. This led substantial warming, with magnitude 0.91 0.80 W/m between decades 1960–1970 2010–2020, which overlies decadal-scale variability up 0.6 . Our findings withstand wide range sensitivity analyses are across different observation-based datasets. The long-term aligns qualitatively rise CO concentrations decline aerosol concentration during same period, but further investigations necessary properly attribute these changes.

Language: Английский

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Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within‐The‐Atmosphere Observations: A Three‐Way Street

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 61(2)

Published: May 4, 2023

Abstract Aerosol forcing uncertainty represents the largest climate overall. Its magnitude has remained virtually undiminished over past 20 years despite considerable advances in understanding most of key contributing elements. Recent work produced modest increases only confidence estimate itself. This review summarizes contributions toward reducing aerosol made by satellite observations, measurements taken within atmosphere, as well modeling and data assimilation. We adopt a more measurement‐oriented perspective than reviews subject assessing strengths limitations each; gaps possible ways to fill them are considered. Currently planned programs supporting advanced, global‐scale surface‐based aerosol, cloud, precursor gas modeling, intensive field campaigns aimed at characterizing underlying physical chemical processes involved, all essential. But addition, new efforts needed: (a) obtain systematic aircraft situ capturing multi‐variate probability distribution functions particle optical, microphysical, properties (and associated estimates), co‐variability with meteorology, for major airmass types; (b) conceive, develop, implement suborbital (aircraft plus surface‐based) program systematically quantifying cloud‐scale microphysics, cloud optical properties, cloud‐related vertical velocities aerosol‐cloud interactions; (c) focus much research on integrating unique measurements, reduce persistent forcing.

Language: Английский

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An efficient fog collector inspired by Tillandsia and cactus spines

Chemical Engineering Journal, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 472, P. 145042 - 145042

Published: July 26, 2023

Language: Английский

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AERA-MIP: Emission pathways, remaining budgets and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC global warming stabilization

Published: Feb. 28, 2024

Abstract. While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming well below 2 °C, or pursuing 1.5 the modeling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth System Models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at same prescribed levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based comprehensive ESMs of carbon emission pathways needed to meet such agreed levels, associated impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with provide simulations models °C 2.0 levels by iteratively adjusting their emissions. These emission-driven a wide range resulting atmospheric CO2 projections for given level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing traditional CMIP scenarios greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting 1.5°C level necessitates 40 % (model full range: 7 76 %) reduction multi-model mean CO2-forcing equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions from 2025 2030, 98 (57 127 2050, stabilization 1.0 (-1.7 2.9) PgC yr-1 2100 onward after target is reached. For CO2-fe require 47 (8 92 until 2050 1.7 (-1.5 2.7) onward. The on-average positive stabilized temperatures are result decreasing transient response cumulative evolution consistent slightly negative zero commitment – initially assumed leads increase post-2025 budget factor 2.2 (-0.8 6.9) 2150 1.4 (0.9 2.4) compared its first estimate 2025. Our highlight shifts uptake dynamics temperature, as cessation sinks North Atlantic tropical forests. On other hand, Southern Ocean northern high-latitude land remain over centuries stabilize. Overall, this new type target-based offers more coherent assessment across opens up possibilities studying both cycle impacts, extreme events,

Language: Английский

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AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 1591 - 1628

Published: Dec. 18, 2024

Abstract. While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 level of warming, the modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at same prescribed levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based comprehensive ESMs carbon emission pathways budgets needed meet such agreed levels associated impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with provide simulations 2.0 by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven wide range resulting atmospheric CO2 projections for given level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting requires 40 % (full model range: 7 76 %) reduction multi-model mean CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) from 2025 2030, 98 (57 127 2050, stabilization 1.0 (−1.7 2.9) PgC yr−1 2100 onward after is reached. 47 (8 92 CO2-fe until 2050 1.7 (−1.5 2.7) onward. The on-average positive stabilized temperatures are result decreasing transient response cumulative time warming. evolution consistent slightly negative zero commitment – initially assumed be leads increase post-2025 budget factor 2.2 (−0.8 6.9) 2150 1.4 (0.9 2.4) compared its first estimate 2025. median CO2-only 2150, relative 2020, 800 GtCO2 2250 level. values exceed IPCC AR6 estimates 60 67 °C. Some differences may explained choice mitigation scenario non-CO2 radiative agents. Our highlight shifts uptake dynamics temperature, as cessation sinks North Atlantic tropical forests. On other hand, Southern Ocean remains sink centuries stabilize. Overall, this new type warming-level-based simulation offers more coherent assessment across opens up possibilities studying both cycle impacts, extreme events,

Language: Английский

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Changes in the Climate Effects of Major Anthropogenic Aerosols in East Asia Under Different Emission Reduction Scenarios in China

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)

Published: Jan. 18, 2025

Abstract Pollutant emissions in China have significantly decreased over the past decade and are expected to continue declining future. Aerosols, as important pollutants short‐lived climate forcing agents, significant but currently unclear impacts East Asia their concentrations decrease until mid‐century. Here, we employ a well‐developed regional model RegCM4 combined with future pollutant emission inventories, which more representative of investigate changes effects major anthropogenic aerosols under six different reduction scenarios (1.5°C goals, Neutral‐goals, 2°C ‐goals, NDC‐goals, Current‐goals, Baseline). By 2060s, aerosol surface these projected by 89%, 87%, 84%, 73%, 65%, 21%, respectively, compared those 2010–2020. Aerosol effect associated its loadings not linear manner. The average effective radiative at induced aerosol‐radiation‐cloud interactions will diminish 24% ± 13% 2030s 35% 2060s. These alternations caused reductions lead increases near‐surface temperatures precipitations. Specifically, aerosol‐induced temperature precipitation responses estimated change −78% −20% −69% 77%, goals 2060s Therefore, resulting from substantial need be fully considered pathway toward carbon neutrality.

Language: Английский

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