Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 20(2), P. 024037 - 024037

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

Abstract Global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) is a fundamental diagnostic of ongoing climate change, yet there incomplete understanding multi-decadal changes in warming rate and year-to-year variability. Exploiting satellite observations since 1985 statistical model incorporating drivers variability we identify an increasing rise GMSST. This accelerating ocean physically linked to upward trend Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). We quantify that GMSST has increased by 0.54 ± 0.07 K for each GJ m –2 accumulated energy, equivalent 0.17 ± 0.02 decade ‒1 (W ‒2 ) . Using the isolate from interannual variability, underlying change rises proportion with accumulation 0.06 –1 during 1985–89 0.27 2019–23. While associated El Niño Southern Oscillation triggered exceptionally high GMSSTs 2023 early 2024, 44% (90% confidence interval: 35%–52%) +0.22 difference between peak 2023/24 event 2015/16 unexplained unless acceleration accounted for. Applying indicative future scenarios EEI based on recent trends, increases are likely be faster than would expected linear extrapolation past four decades. Our results provide observational evidence increase inferred over 40 years will exceeded within next 20 years. Policy makers wider society should aware global decades poor guide come, underscoring urgency deep reductions fossil-fuel burning.

Language: Английский

---

The black soil region of northeast China shows a warming and drying trend between 1980 and 2100 based on ERA5-land, CMIP6 and GEE

Environmental Earth Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 84(7)

Published: March 28, 2025

Language: Английский

---

Integrating Top‐Down Energetic Constraints With Bottom‐Up Process‐Based Constraints for More Accurate Projections of Future Warming

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(8)

Published: April 23, 2025

Abstract The quantification of aerosol‐induced radiative forcing and cloud feedbacks remains a significant challenge in climate modeling, primarily due to the complex interplay aerosol clouds warming world. Traditional approaches often rely on either bottom‐up process‐based models, difficult constrain against present‐day observations, or top‐down methods that lack ability capture underlying processes accurately. Here, we present an approach combines both constraints energetic simultaneously achieve more comprehensive understanding impacts climate. Applying new method Community Atmosphere Model v6, infer narrower parameter ranges for key process parameters, reduced effective −1.08 [−1.29–−0.77] Wm −2 , hence 66% precise future projections.

Language: Английский

---

On Tail Structural Change in U.S. Climate Data

Environmetrics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 36(4)

Published: May 1, 2025

ABSTRACT While many studies on climate have focused location shifts, none specifically tested whether lower or upper tails of the data generating process structurally changed over time. This manuscript applies a new test that can detect either distributional tail structural change to various annual and daily U.S. measures. Notably, we find both and, quite interestingly, tend observe greater evidence in one versus other for most We also presence multiple breaks. Our results imply modeling, climate‐crop yield should account significant asymmetric changes distributions not only shifts.

Language: Английский

---

An atmospheric water collection system by a hygroscopic process

Surfaces and Interfaces, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 46, P. 103891 - 103891

Published: Jan. 12, 2024

Language: Английский

---

Bringing it all together: Science and modelling priorities to support international climate policy

Published: Feb. 19, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact have worked together over past few decades, to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment, support policy. then recommend a number priority research areas for coming ~6 years (i.e. until ~2030), timescale that matches newly starting activities encompasses IPCC 7th Report (AR7) 2nd UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our increase quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris Climate Targets, including overshoot 1.5 °C 2 targets, before later returning them. System models (ESMs) be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots, particular, efficacy negative CO2 actions reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved assessment long-term consequences stabilizing at or above pre-industrial temperatures also required. ESMs run CO2-emission mode, more fully represent - carbon cycle feedbacks. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections are as realistic possible. accurate simulation observed record remains key requirement does metrics, Effective Sensitivity. For adaptation, guidance potential changes extremes modes variability develop in, demand. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution parameterizations. propose deeper collaboration across efforts targeting process realism coupling, enhanced resolution, parameterization improvement, data-driven Machine Learning methods. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation attention paid High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) outcomes. In risk exceeding critical tipping points during overshoot. comprehensive change, arising directly specific mitigation actions, it important detailed, disaggregated information Models (IAMs) used generate available models. Conversely, methods developed incorporate societal responses into scenario development. Finally, new data, scientific advances, proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable all communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Language: Английский

---

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Published: May 8, 2024

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence global system. However, successive IPCC reports published at intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used in Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open data, science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11064126, Smith et al., 2024a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show that, 2014–2023 decade average, observed was 1.19 [1.06 1.30] °C, which [1.0 1.4] °C human-induced. For single year human-induced reached 1.31 [1.1 1.7] 2023 relative 1850–1900. This below record 1.43 [1.32 1.53] indicating a substantial contribution internal variability record. Human-induced has been increasing rate that unprecedented instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] per over 2014–2023. high caused combination being all-time 54 ± 5.4 GtCO2e last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increase CO2 slowed compared 2000s, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change some presented here.

Language: Английский

---

Molecular selection of soybean towards adaptation to Central European agroclimatic conditions

Journal of Applied Genetics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 2, 2024

Europe is highly dependent on soybean meal imports and anticipates an increase of domestic plant protein production. Ongoing climate change resulted in northward shift hardiness zones, enabling spring-sowing freezing-sensitive crops, including soybean. However, it requires efficient reselection germplasm adapted to relatively short growing season long-day photoperiod. In the present study, a PCR array has been implemented, targeting early maturity (E1-E4, E7, E9, E10), pod shattering (qPHD1), growth determination (Dt1) genes. This was optimized for routine screening diversity panel (204 accessions), subjected 2018-2020 survey phenology, morphology, yield-related traits potential cultivation region Poland. High broad-sense heritability (0.84-0.88) observed height, thousand grain weight, date, first height. Significant positive correlations were identified between number seeds pods per plant, these two seed yield as well flowering, maturity, genotyping revealed high genetic diversity, yielding 98 allelic combinations. The most remarkable flowering E7 or E1, E4 height Dt1 E4. study demonstrated applicability this molecular selection towards adaptation Central Europe, designating recessive qPHD1 dominant Dt1, E3, alleles major targets align requirements with length frost-free period, improve performance, yield.

Language: Английский

---

Robust evidence for reversal in the aerosol effective climate forcing trend

Published: April 26, 2022

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime only up several days, aerosol forcing responds quickly emissions. Here we present and discuss evolution since 2000. There are multiple lines evidence allow robustly conclude anthropogenic effective radiative – both aerosol-radiation aerosol-cloud interactions has become globally less negative, i.e. trend in changed sign from negative positive. Bottom-up inventories show primary precursor emissions declined most regions world; observations related burden declining trends, particular fine-mode particles make aerosols; satellite retrievals cloud droplet numbers trends consistent sign, as do top-of-atmosphere radiation. Climate model results, including revised set is constrained by ocean heat content magnitude for positive relative 2000 due reduced effects. This reduction leads an acceleration climate change, increase 0.1 0.3 W m-2, 12 % total 2019 compared 1750 according IPCC.

Language: Английский

---

Sorely reducing emissions of non-methane short-lived climate forcers will worsen compound flood-heatwave extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

Advances in Climate Change Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 737 - 750

Published: May 23, 2024

Non-methane short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) or near-term (NTCF) emissions, as a significant driver of change, can be reduced to improve air quality. These reductions may contribute additional warming the system in short term, thereby strongly affecting likelihood extremes. However, there has been no quantitative assessment impact non-methane SLCF mitigation on compound flood–heatwave extremes (CFHEs). This study quantitatively investigates changes future (2031–2050 versus 1995–2014) CFHEs and resulting population exposure Northern Hemisphere (NH) due reductions. We used multi-model ensemble simulations under two scenarios from Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) Coupled Phase 6 (CMIP6). The share same greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but have weak (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0) strong (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels quality control measures. results show that during 2031–2050 about 7.3% ± 2.3% increase grid NH relative period 1995–2014. frequency, intensity, duration by varying degrees. During 2031–2050, frequency across increases 2.9 0.9 events per decade CFHE are more pronounced East Asia, South Siberia, northern eastern North America. In intensities both heatwaves floods corresponding markedly, where heatwave magnitude (HWM) 0.3 0.2 Asia weighted average precipitation (WAP) 18.3% 15.3% 12.0% 4.5% respectively. other regions, rising temperatures dominate CFHEs. With regard CFHEs, SLCFs 0.1 d. Regionally, sensitivity global caused is 1.2–1.9 times higher than GHG forcing. NH-averaged (5.0 2.0) × 105 person event 2031–2050. emphasizes importance considering impacts cleaner responses societal planning.

Language: Английский

---