How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5

Published: Jan. 4, 2024

Climate change will have significant impacts on all aspects of human society, including population movements. In some cases, populations be displaced by natural disasters and sudden-onset climate events, such as tropical storms. other gradually influence the economic, social, political realities a place, which in turn how where people migrate. Planning for wide spectrum future climate-related mobility is key challenge facing development planners policy makers. This article reviews state migration forecasting models, based an analysis thirty recent models. We present characteristics, strengths, weaknesses different modeling approaches, gravity, radiation, agent-based, systems dynamics statistical extrapolation consider five illustrative models depth. show why, at this stage development, are not yet able to provide reliable numerical estimates migration. Rather, best used tools range possible futures, explore dynamics, test theories or potential effects. research implications our findings, need improved data collection, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, scenarios-based planning.

Language: Английский

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Beyond ‘Those Who Leave and Those Who Stay’: the simultaneous impacts of co-agency in migration

Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 50(17), P. 4253 - 4278

Published: June 6, 2024

What are the impacts of migration on those directly involved in it: who stay and leave? The deceptive simplicity this question becomes obvious once we look at diverse mutually contradictory empirical answers it has received. On basis Web Science data, provide a mapping existing studies migration's impacts, which reveals clearly pronounced modularity between different disciplines theoretical approaches, with psychological migrants' mental health, political science remittances, economic labour market for example, often speaking cross-purposes not engaging meaningful dialogue. To reconcile available evidence bridge gap Special Issue, put forward concept co-agency that underlines dynamic, relational, co-constructed, co-performed nature its impacts. draws attention to what happens actors migration, but they attain, perform, ultimately: do through migration. Furthermore, emphasises – both leave behind together, rejecting distinction migrants as active staying simply passive recipients development, etc. Focusing wide variety individual collective, our conceptual approach need study interplay simultaneous including, limited to, health individuals, care-provision families, development policy states collective actors. Ultimately, rather than promoting migration-pessimism or migration-optimism, argue nuanced multi-level understanding complex interacting

Language: Английский

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Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh

Population and Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 47(1)

Published: Jan. 22, 2025

Language: Английский

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Migration Motives and Employment Outcomes of Ghanaian Migrants: The Role of Skills, Work Experience and Gender

Global Social Welfare, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Neoclassical economic theories suggest that migration is driven by development and regional wage disparities, with individuals making rational cost–benefit decisions. This paper adds to the empirical discussion highlighting importance of factors such as gender, prior work experience, skills in shaping motives employment prospects. Analysing data from seventh round Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS7), findings show men are more likely migrate for reasons or pursue education, while women often social reasons, marriage family reunification. The regression estimates highly skilled migrants those experience less inclined education job-seeking purposes. While significantly increase likelihood among migrants, tends have opposite effect. also discusses policy implications these findings.

Language: Английский

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How return migration becomes a viable option in older age

International Migration, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(2)

Published: March 1, 2025

Abstract By building on the concept of preparedness, I demonstrate that return migration in older age requires a home, meaningful social relationships and pension income. More so, framework for portability taxation should be interpreted as morally just by returnees. The moral dimension encompasses meanings fair taxation, value an returnee intergenerational solidarity within migrant communities returnees' homes. Morality also interweaves multiple scales from transnational agreements to national ideologies everyday at micro scale. Accordingly, based ethnography (2021–2023) with returnees Latvia, this research extends theory ageing studies through scalar lenses.

Language: Английский

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Prioritizing involuntary immobility in climate policy and disaster planning

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: March 16, 2025

Abstract Globally, populations are increasingly located in areas at high risk of climate change impacts. Some lack the agency to move out harm’s way, leading involuntary immobility. The risks these face insufficiently addressed policy and disaster planning. While planning should be data-informed, appropriate data not limit governments institutions from taking action reduce Incorporating immobility within broader sustainable development goals safe, orderly, regular migration may substantially

Language: Английский

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A systematic review of climate migration research: gaps in existing literature

SN Social Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 2(5)

Published: April 16, 2022

Abstract Climatic disasters are displacing millions of people every year across the world. Growing academic attention in recent decades has addressed different dimensions nexus between climatic events and human migration. Based on a systematic review approach, this study investigates how climate-induced migration studies framed published literature identifies key gaps existing studies. 161 journal articles were systematically selected reviewed (published 1990 2019). Result shows diverse discourses policies, climate vulnerabilities, adaptation, resilience, conflict, security, environmental issues range disciplines. It Asia as most studied area followed by Oceania, illustrating that greatest focus research to date been tropical subtropical regions. Moreover, impact livelihoods, socio-economic conditions, culture, health migrants. Specifically, demonstrates very little is known about livelihood outcomes migrants their international destination impacts host communities. The offers agenda guide endeavors toward addressing current knowledge, including pressing need for global national policies address significant challenge.

Language: Английский

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Time to Mainstream the Environment into Migration Theory?

International Migration Review, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 57(1), P. 5 - 35

Published: Feb. 23, 2022

As with all social processes, human migration is a dynamic process that requires regular theoretical reflection; this article offers such reflection as related to the role of natural environment in contemporary research and theory. A growing body evidence suggests environmental contexts are increasingly shifting ecological realities ways consequential We review some evidence, providing examples applicable core theories, including neoclassical economic systems perspectives, "push-pull" framework, new economics labor migration. suggest neglecting consideration may yield misspecified models attribute too heavily factors particularly context climate change,. On other hand, failure consider theory scenarios lead simplistic projections understandings, case "climate refugees". conclude researchers have an obligation accurately reflect complexity migration's drivers, environment, within scholarship especially global change.

Language: Английский

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Computational approaches to migration and integration research: promises and challenges

Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(2), P. 389 - 407

Published: Aug. 16, 2022

Computational social science provides an innovative set of methodological tools that can help answer questions substantive interest to migration and integration research. In this introductory article, we first provide a brief history how computational approaches have already enriched Second, identify several key promises research (e.g. better access hard-to-reach populations, cost reductions time savings, detection causal mechanisms, avoidance response biases nationalism through fine-grained, time-stamped, live digital trace data) challenges missing categories, sampling issues, ethical concerns). Third, illustrate the contributions special issue fulfil some these – as well deal with gain new insights into address why people emigrate, what evolution structural patterns in networks is, whether refugee movements be predicted, host communities respond influx refugees, interpret, frame, discuss arrivals, migration-related discourse responds external shocks, spatial segregation migrants ethnic minorities emerge.

Language: Английский

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Remittances in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia: The gravity model

Review of Development Economics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 27(2), P. 1224 - 1241

Published: Feb. 4, 2023

Abstract Remittances are an important source of external financing in low‐ and middle‐income countries. This paper uses the gravity model to analyze remittance flows Russia Caucasus Central Asia Standard determinants, such as gross domestic product sending receiving countries, bilateral distance, existence common borders official language, fit remittance, flow well. also react inflation exchange rate movements recipient countries sustain their purchasing power. In line with altruism hypothesis, remittances higher age dependency ratio. countercyclical help stabilize outputs However, global shocks resulting sharp output losses would lead large volatility decline inflows

Language: Английский

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