Zoonotic host diversity increases in human-dominated ecosystems

Nature, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 584(7821), P. 398 - 402

Published: Aug. 5, 2020

Language: Английский

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Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 22(10), P. 1690 - 1708

Published: July 8, 2019

Abstract Mosquito‐borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly nonlinearly to temperature therefore climate change. Here, we review how trait‐based approaches can synthesise mechanistically predict the dependence transmission across vectors, pathogens, environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species – including globally important like malaria, dengue, Zika synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23–29ºC declining zero below 9–23ºC above 32–38ºC. Different traits restricted low versus high temperatures, effects on both parasite species. Temperate exhibit broader thermal ranges cooler minima optima than tropical pathogens. Among malaria Ross River virus had lower (25–26ºC) while dengue viruses highest (29ºC) optima. expect warming increase but decrease Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models field transmission, combining control measures, incorporating trait variation variation, investigating adaptation migration.

Language: Английский

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Fish reproductive-energy output increases disproportionately with body size

Science, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 360(6389), P. 642 - 645

Published: May 10, 2018

Big mamas matter for fish The theoretical relationship between reproduction and body size has assumed that total mass relates directly to fecundity, regardless of the number individuals involved. This assumption leads fisheries management practices suggest one large female can be replaced by several smaller females. However, this is incorrect. Barneche et al. show larger females are far more productive than same weight's worth Management ignore value could contribute unexplained declines seen in some stocks. Science , issue p. 642

Language: Английский

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Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 115(7), P. 1424 - 1432

Published: Jan. 30, 2018

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in future?” do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering requires an ability forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting needs of near-term (daily decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison specific, quantitative predictions new observational data, one strongest tests scientific theory. Near-term opportunity iteratively cycle between performing analyses updating light evidence. This iterative process gaining feedback, building experience, correcting models methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, forecasting will accelerate research, make it more relevant society, inform sustainable under high uncertainty adaptive management. Here, we identify immediate societal needs, opportunities, challenges forecasting. Over past decade, data volume, variety, accessibility have greatly increased, but remain interoperability, latency, quantification. Similarly, ecologists made considerable advances applying computational, informatic, statistical methods, opportunities exist forecast-specific theory, cyberinfrastructure. Effective also require changes training, culture, institutions. The need start now; time making ecology predictive here, learning by doing fastest route drive science forward.

Language: Английский

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Rapid population decline in migratory shorebirds relying on Yellow Sea tidal mudflats as stopover sites

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: April 13, 2017

Abstract Migratory animals are threatened by human-induced global change. However, little is known about how stopover habitat, essential for refuelling during migration, affects the population dynamics of migratory species. Using 20 years continent-wide citizen science data, we assess trends ten shorebird taxa that refuel on Yellow Sea tidal mudflats, a ecosystem has shrunk >65% in recent decades. Seven declined at rates up to 8% per year. Taxa with greatest reliance as site showed declines, whereas those stop primarily other regions had slowly declining or stable populations. Decline rate was unaffected shared evolutionary history among and not predicted migration distance, breeding range size, non-breeding location, generation time body size. These results suggest changes habitat can severely limit

Language: Английский

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Modelling of species distributions, range dynamics and communities under imperfect detection: advances, challenges and opportunities

Ecography, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 40(2), P. 281 - 295

Published: June 20, 2016

Building useful models of species distributions requires attention to several important issues, one being imperfect detection species. Data sets detections are likely suffer from false absence records. Depending on the type survey, positive records can also be a problem. Disregarding these observation errors may lead biases in model estimation as well overconfidence about precision. The severity problem depends intensity and how they correlate with environmental characteristics (e.g. where detectability strongly habitat features). A powerful modelling framework that accounts for has developed last 10–15 yr. Fundamental this is data must collected way informative process. For instance, such form multiple detection/non‐detection obtained visits/observers/detection methods at (at least) some sites, or times within survey visit. extend studying species’ range dynamics communities, approaches analysing abundance occupancy states (rather than binary presence/absence). This paper summarizes advances, discusses evidence effects difficulties working it, concludes current outlook future research application methods.

Language: Английский

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Model averaging in ecology: a review of Bayesian, information‐theoretic, and tactical approaches for predictive inference

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 88(4), P. 485 - 504

Published: May 3, 2018

Abstract In ecology, the true causal structure for a given problem is often not known, and several plausible models thus model predictions exist. It has been claimed that using weighted averages of these can reduce prediction error, as well better reflect selection uncertainty. These claims, however, are demonstrated by isolated examples. Analysts must understand under which conditions averaging improve their uncertainty estimates. Moreover, large range different methods exists, raising question how they differ in behaviour performance. Here, we review mathematical foundations along with diversity approaches available. We explain error model‐averaged depends on each model's predictive bias variance, covariance between models, about weights. show particularly useful if contributing dominated low. For noisy data, predominate will be met. Many to derive weights exist, from Bayesian over information‐theoretical cross‐validation optimized resampling approaches. A general recommendation difficult, because performance context dependent. Importantly, estimating creates some additional As result, estimated may always outperform arbitrary fixed weights, such equal all models. When set many inadequate typically superior also investigate quality confidence intervals calculated predictions, showing greatly seldom manage achieve nominal coverage. Our overall recommendations stress importance non‐parametric reliable quantification predictions.

Language: Английский

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A practical guide to selecting models for exploration, inference, and prediction in ecology

Ecology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 102(6)

Published: March 12, 2021

Abstract Selecting among competing statistical models is a core challenge in science. However, the many possible approaches and techniques for model selection, conflicting recommendations their use, can be confusing. We contend that much confusion surrounding selection results from failing to first clearly specify purpose of analysis. argue there are three distinct goals modeling ecology: data exploration, inference, prediction. Once goal articulated, an appropriate procedure easier identify. review highlight strengths weaknesses relative each goals. then present examples prediction using time series butterfly population counts. These show how approach flows naturally goal, leading different selected purposes, even with exactly same set. This illustrates best practices ecologists should serve as reminder recipes cannot substitute critical thinking or use independent test hypotheses validate predictions.

Language: Английский

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The relative performance of AIC, AIC_Cand BIC in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 7(6), P. 679 - 692

Published: June 1, 2016

Summary Model selection is difficult. Even in the apparently straightforward case of choosing between standard linear regression models, there does not yet appear to be consensus statistical ecology literature as right approach. We review recent works on model and subsequently focus one aspect particular: use Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or its small‐sample equivalent, . create a novel framework for simulation studies this study from simulated data sets with range properties, which differ terms degree unobserved heterogeneity. results suggest an approach based ideas information criteria but requiring simulation. find that relative predictive performance by different heavily dependent heterogeneity sets. When small, AIC are likely perform well, if large, Bayesian (BIC) will often better, due stronger penalty afforded. Our conclusion choice criterion (or more broadly, strength likelihood penalty) should ideally upon hypothesized estimated previous data) properties population given set could have arisen. Relying single form unlikely universally successful.

Language: Английский

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Bridging ecology and conservation: from ecological networks to ecosystem function

Journal of Applied Ecology, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 54(2), P. 371 - 379

Published: Aug. 11, 2016

Summary Current approaches to conservation may be inadequate maintain ecosystem integrity because they are mostly based on rarity status of organisms rather than functional significance. Alternatively, focusing the protection ecological networks lead more appropriate targets integrity. We propose that a shift in focus from species interaction is necessary achieve pressing management and restoration ecology goals conserving biodiversity, processes ultimately landscape‐scale delivery services. Using topical examples literature, we discuss historical conceptual advances, current challenges ways move forward. also road map network conservation, providing novel ready use approach identify clear with flexible data requirements. Synthesis applications . Integration how environmental spatial constraints affect nature strength local will improve our ability predict their response change conserve them. This better protect species, processes, resulting services depend on.

Language: Английский

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