The gray swan: model-based assessment of the risk of sudden failure of hybrid immunity to SARS-CoV-2 DOI Creative Commons
Madison Stoddard, Yuan Lin, Sharanya Sarkar

et al.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 1, 2023

Abstract In the fourth year of COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities worldwide have adopted a strategy learning to live with SARS-CoV-2. This has involved removal measures for limiting viral spread, resulting in large burden recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections. Crucial managing this is concept so-called wall hybrid immunity, through repeated reinfections and vaccine boosters, reduce risk severe disease death. Protection against both infection provided by induction neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) However, pharmacokinetic (PK) waning rapid evolution degrade nAb binding titers. The recent emergence variants strongly immune evasive potential vaccinal natural responses raises question whether population-level immunity can be maintained face jumps potency. Here we use an agent-based simulation address question. Our findings suggest may cause failure population sudden increases mortality. As rise mortality will only become apparent weeks following wave disease, reactive strategies not able provide meaningful mitigation. Learning virus could thus lead death tolls very little warning. work points importance proactive management ongoing need multifactorial approaches control.

Language: Английский

The gray swan: model-based assessment of the risk of sudden failure of hybrid immunity to SARS-CoV-2 DOI Creative Commons
Madison Stoddard, Yuan Lin, Sharanya Sarkar

et al.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 1, 2023

Abstract In the fourth year of COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities worldwide have adopted a strategy learning to live with SARS-CoV-2. This has involved removal measures for limiting viral spread, resulting in large burden recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections. Crucial managing this is concept so-called wall hybrid immunity, through repeated reinfections and vaccine boosters, reduce risk severe disease death. Protection against both infection provided by induction neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) However, pharmacokinetic (PK) waning rapid evolution degrade nAb binding titers. The recent emergence variants strongly immune evasive potential vaccinal natural responses raises question whether population-level immunity can be maintained face jumps potency. Here we use an agent-based simulation address question. Our findings suggest may cause failure population sudden increases mortality. As rise mortality will only become apparent weeks following wave disease, reactive strategies not able provide meaningful mitigation. Learning virus could thus lead death tolls very little warning. work points importance proactive management ongoing need multifactorial approaches control.

Language: Английский

Citations

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