How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of seasonal influenza DOI Creative Commons
Oliver Eales, Freya M. Shearer, James M. McCaw

et al.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 8, 2023

Abstract Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A H3N2 has caused yearly epidemics temperate regions. While infection confers immunity against antigenically similar strains, new distinct strains that evade existing regularly emerge (‘antigenic drift’). Immunity at the individual level is complex, depending on an individual’s lifetime history. An first with typically elicits greatest response subsequent infections eliciting progressively reduced responses seniority’). The combined effect of individual-level immune and antigenic drift epidemiological dynamics are not well understood. Here we develop integrated modelling framework transmission, immunity, to show how exposure, build-up population shape long-term H3N2. Including seniority model, observe following initial decline after pandemic year, average annual attack rate increases over next 80 years, before reaching equilibrium, greater older age-groups. Our analyses suggest still a growth phase. Further increases, particularly elderly, may be expected coming decades, driving increase healthcare demand due infections. We anticipate our findings methodological developments will applicable other variable pathogens. This includes recent pathogens H1N1pdm09, circulating since 2009, SARS-CoV-2, 2019. highlight short-term reduction rates pandemic, if there any degree then resurgence should longer-term. Designing implementing studies assess for help rises health burden.

Language: Английский

Global, regional, and national burden of upper respiratory infections and otitis media, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 DOI Creative Commons

Sarah Brooke Sirota,

Matthew C Doxey,

Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez

et al.

The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Transformative Approaches in SARS-CoV-2 Management: Vaccines, Therapeutics and Future Direction DOI
Ankita Saha,

Shweta Choudhary,

Priyanshu Walia

et al.

Virology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 604, P. 110394 - 110394

Published: Jan. 11, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Molnupiravir Use Among Patients with COVID-19 in Real-World Settings: A Systematic Literature Review DOI Creative Commons

Julia Richmond DiBello,

Valerie T Raziano, Xinyue Liu

et al.

Infectious Diseases and Therapy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(6), P. 1177 - 1198

Published: May 14, 2024

Molnupiravir (MOV) is an oral antiviral for the treatment of individuals with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 and at high risk progression to severe disease. Our objective was conduct a systematic literature review (SLR) evidence on effectiveness MOV in reducing outcomes real-world outpatient settings. The SLR conducted accordance Preferred Reporting Items Systematic Reviews Meta-Analyses 2020 guidelines using pre-determined population, intervention, comparison, outcome, time, study design inclusion criteria. Eligible studies were published between January 1, 2021, March 10, 2023, evaluated compared no among outpatients ≥ 18 years age laboratory-confirmed diagnosis SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nine from five countries included review. size MOV-treated group ranged 359 7818 individuals. Omicron variants dominant all periods. Most noted differences baseline characteristics untreated control groups, treated groups generally being older more comorbidities. Eight reported that associated significantly reduced least one outcome group, greater benefits consistently observed groups. In this study, effective caused by variants, especially Differences ages comorbidities may have led underestimation many observational studies. Real-world date thus provide additional supporting continued non-hospitalized adults COVID-19. continues be major source morbidity mortality. Throughout pandemic, authorized various therapies presenting Some these since been rendered ineffective due emergence late 2021. current assess molnupiravir, including against supplement findings MOVe-OUT clinical trial further inform potential benefit utility agent. We found molnupiravir molnupiravir-treated summary,

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Embedding risk monitoring in infectious disease surveillance for timely and effective outbreak prevention and control DOI Creative Commons
Brecht Ingelbeen, Esther van Kleef,

Placide Mbala

et al.

BMJ Global Health, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 10(2), P. e016870 - e016870

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Epidemic intelligence efforts aim to predict, timely detect and assess (re-)emerging pathogens, guide evaluate infectious disease prevention or control. We emphasise the underused potential of integrating monitoring risks related exposure, death, particularly in settings where limited diagnostic capacity access healthcare hamper prevention/control measures. Monitoring One Health exposures, human behaviour, immunity, comorbidities, uptake control measures pathogen characteristics can complement facility-based surveillance generating signals imminent ongoing outbreaks, targeting preventive/control interventions epidemic preparedness high-risk areas subpopulations. Low-cost risk data sources include electronic medical records, existing household/patient/environmental surveys, Demographic Surveillance Systems, medicine distribution programmatic data. Public health authorities need identify prioritise that effectively fill gaps not accurately answer, determine indicators generate from data, ensure availability, regular analysis dissemination.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of influenza H3N2 DOI Creative Commons
Oliver Eales, Freya M. Shearer, James M. McCaw

et al.

PLoS Computational Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 21(3), P. e1012893 - e1012893

Published: March 20, 2025

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A H3N2 has caused yearly epidemics temperate regions. While infection confers immunity against antigenically similar strains, new distinct strains that evade existing regularly emerge (‘antigenic drift’). Immunity at the individual level is complex, depending on an individual's lifetime history. An first with typically elicits greatest response subsequent infections eliciting progressively reduced responses seniority’). The combined effect of individual-level immune and antigenic drift epidemiological dynamics are not well understood. Here we develop integrated modelling framework transmission, immunity, to show how exposure, build-up population shape long-term H3N2. Including seniority model, observe following initial decline after pandemic year, average annual attack rate increases over next 80 years, before reaching equilibrium, greater older age-groups. Our analyses suggest still a growth phase. Further increases, particularly elderly, may be expected coming decades, driving increase healthcare demand due infections.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
The importance of playing the long game when it comes to pandemic surveillance DOI Creative Commons
Freya M. Shearer, Marc Lipsitch

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 122(15)

Published: April 9, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand DOI Creative Commons
Leighton M. Watson, Michael J. Plank, Bridget Armstrong

et al.

Communications Medicine, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: July 15, 2024

Timely and informed public health responses to infectious diseases such as COVID-19 necessitate reliable information about infection dynamics. The case ascertainment rate (CAR), the proportion of infections that are reported cases, is typically much less than one varies with testing practices behaviours, making cases unreliable sole source data. concentration viral RNA in wastewater samples provides an alternate measure prevalence not affected by clinical testing, healthcare-seeking behaviour or access care.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Evaluation of an influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance system in South Korea, 2017-2023 DOI Creative Commons
Bryan Kim,

Seonghui Cho,

Chiara Achangwa

et al.

Journal of Infection and Public Health, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. 102515 - 102515

Published: Aug. 9, 2024

Guided by the data from surveillance system, public health efforts have contributed to reducing burden of influenza in many countries. During COVID-19 pandemic, resources were directed at tracking severe acute respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus 2. However, most countries not reported evaluations during pandemic.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Challenges in the case-based surveillance of infectious diseases DOI Creative Commons
Oliver Eales, James M. McCaw, Freya M. Shearer

et al.

Royal Society Open Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

To effectively inform infectious disease control strategies, accurate knowledge of the pathogen's transmission dynamics is required. Since timings infections are rarely known, estimates infection incidence, which crucial for understanding dynamics, often rely on measurements other quantities amenable to surveillance. Case-based surveillance, in infected individuals identified by a positive test, predominant form surveillance many pathogens, and was used extensively during COVID-19 pandemic. However, there can be biases present case-based indicators due to, example test sensitivity, changing testing behaviours co-circulation pathogens with similar symptom profiles. Here, we develop mathematical description diseases. By considering realistic epidemiological parameters situations, demonstrate potential common based data. Crucially, find that these (e.g. case numbers, test-positive proportion) heavily biased circulating Future strategies could designed minimize sources bias uncertainty, providing more and, ultimately, targeted application public health measures.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Respiratory Virus Vaccines: Pathways to Recommendations and Enhanced Coverage for At-Risk Populations DOI Creative Commons
Stefania Maggi, Odile Launay, Rachel Dawson

et al.

Infectious Diseases and Therapy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 30, 2024

While marked differences exist between influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and severe acute syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), there is substantial overlap in the vulnerability of populations most at risk for disease following infection, chief among them being advanced age, multiple comorbidities, immunocompromise. Vaccination an established effective preventative strategy to protect against viral infections (RVIs), reducing morbidity mortality, minimizing potential long-term complications, mitigating exacerbation existing health conditions. Despite demonstrated benefits immunization throughout life course recommendations by authorities, coverage rates at-risk vaccine-preventable diseases remain suboptimal vary considerably country demographic strata. The objective this supplement's concluding article discuss current barriers vaccination strategies enhance RVIs adult populations. Identified include low awareness risks diseases, perceived vaccination, doubts regarding vaccine safety, which together contribute hesitancy. Additionally, logistical issues related supply, access, costs present further challenges achieving optimal coverage. Potential overcome these improve uptake strengthening harmonizing guidelines improving surveillance systems appropriately identify needs direct resources. Co-administration or use combination vaccines viruses may be a viable simplifying schedules with future utilization enhanced platforms develop novel vaccines. In addition, vaccination-focused healthcare provider training consumer education are recommended address Reaching targets expanding increasingly achievable availability new updated viruses, but will require collective efforts across providers, policymakers, scientists, officials, general population.

Language: Английский

Citations

2