Global urban exposure projections to extreme heatwaves DOI Creative Commons
Peter J. Marcotullio, Carsten Keßler, B M Fekete

et al.

Frontiers in Built Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: Oct. 31, 2022

Over the past decades, world has experienced increasing heatwave intensity, frequency, and duration. This trend is projected to increase into future with climate change. At same time, global population also increase, largely in world’s cities. urban growth associated increased heat core, compared surrounding areas, exposing residents both higher temperatures more intense heatwaves than their rural counterparts. Regional studies suggest that Asia Africa will be significantly affected. How many people may exposed levels of extreme events remains unclear. Identifying range number potentially populations where vulnerable are located can help planners prioritize adaption efforts. We project ranges at varying 2,100 for three periods time (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2099) using Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) Representative Concentration (RCPs). hypothesize largest very warm Africa. Our projections represent warmest 15 days during these periods. By 2070–2099 period, exposure (>42°) exceed 3.5 billion, under sustainability scenario (RCP2.6-SSP1). The those cities climbs greater shares Southern tropical countries Western Central While this research demonstrates importance type change event, decision-makers only recently developing policies address heat. There an urgent need further area.

Language: Английский

Research priorities for climate mobility DOI Creative Commons
Nicholas P. Simpson, Katharine J. Mach, Mark Tebboth

et al.

One Earth, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(4), P. 589 - 607

Published: March 8, 2024

The escalating impacts of climate change on the movement and immobility people, coupled with false but influential narratives mobility, highlight an urgent need for nuanced synthetic research around mobility. Synthesis evidence gaps across Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report a to clarify understanding what conditions make human mobility effective adaptation option its outcomes, including simultaneous losses, damages, benefits. Priorities include integration development planning; involuntary vulnerability; gender; data cities; risk from responses maladaptation; public risk; transboundary, compound, cascading risks; nature-based approaches; planned retreat, relocation, heritage. Cutting these priorities, modalities better position as type process, praxis. Policies practices reflect diverse needs, experiences emphasizing capability, choice, freedom movement.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh DOI Creative Commons
Jan Freihardt

Population and Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 47(1)

Published: Jan. 22, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Prioritizing involuntary immobility in climate policy and disaster planning DOI Creative Commons
Lisa Thalheimer, Fabien Cottier, Andrew Kruczkiewicz

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: March 16, 2025

Abstract Globally, populations are increasingly located in areas at high risk of climate change impacts. Some lack the agency to move out harm’s way, leading involuntary immobility. The risks these face insufficiently addressed policy and disaster planning. While planning should be data-informed, appropriate data not limit governments institutions from taking action reduce Incorporating immobility within broader sustainable development goals safe, orderly, regular migration may substantially

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Syrian farmers in the midst of drought and conflict: the causes, patterns, and aftermath of land abandonment and migration DOI Creative Commons
Pınar Dinç, Lina Eklund

Climate and Development, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 349 - 362

Published: July 1, 2023

The prevailing narrative on the Syrian Civil War attributes it to climate-induced migration resulting from a severe drought, which serves as central link connecting climate change with 2011 protests. However, limited research has involved interviews Syrians, most studies focusing drought's meteorological aspects and estimated migrant numbers. Our interdisciplinary study we conduct surveys 82 former farmers in Turkey, carry out 16 in-depth interviews, analyse satellite images explore land use activities. objective is answer three questions: (1) How can distinguish between 'forced displacement' 'migration an adaptive response' during 2007–2009 drought Syria subsequent civil war? (2) do abandonment, interact since 2006? (3) enhance understanding of 'trapped' individuals, considering mobility restrictions host countries rather than solely immobility country origin? findings are threefold: firstly, employed measures against before war; secondly, abandonment was less extensive portrayed literature linking climate, migration, conflict; finally, emphasize that refugees may feel trapped even after leaving their homes.

Language: Английский

Citations

16
The effects of environmental and non-environmental shocks on livelihoods and migration in Tanzania DOI Creative Commons
Julia Blocher, Roman Hoffmann, Helga Weisz

et al.

Population and Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 46(1)

Published: Feb. 27, 2024

Abstract Disruptive events and calamities can have major consequences for households in the predominantly agrarian communities of Eastern Africa. Here, we analyze impacts environmental non-environmental shocks on migration Tanzania using panel models longitudinal data from National Panel Survey between 2008 2013. Shocks are defined as that lead to losses income, assets, or both. We find resulting changes conditions be positively related over time with more recent exerting strongest impact. According our estimates, probability having a household member absent increases by 0.81% each additional shock encountered past 12 months. Different types differential effects being observed an immediate impact livelihoods, including through livestock crop damage. Households sample differently affected rural, agriculturally dependent, poor without alternative income sources showing their behavior response shocks. Our study adds important insights into relationship disruptive Africa considering broad window compounding influence different types. findings range policy implications highlighting need comprehensive perspective responses times distress considers interplay well role context shaping mobility patterns.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
A framework to link climate change, food security, and migration: unpacking the agricultural pathway DOI Creative Commons
Cascade Tuholske,

Maria Agustina Di Landro,

Weston Anderson

et al.

Population and Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 46(1)

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract Researchers have long hypothesized linkages between climate change, food security, and migration in low- middle-income countries (LMICs). One such hypothesis is the “agricultural pathway,” which postulates that negative change impacts on production harm livelihoods, triggers rural out-migration, internally or abroad. Migration thus an adaptation to cope with of bolster livelihoods. Recent evidence suggests agriculture pathway a plausible mechanism explain climate-related migration. But direct causal connections from livelihood loss out-migration yet be fully established. To guide future research climate-food-migration nexus, we present conceptual framework outlines components underpinning agricultural LMICs. We build established environmental-migration frameworks informed empirical deepened our understanding complex human-environmental systems. First, provide overview its connection mobility literature. then outline primary as they pertain LMIC contexts, highlighting current gaps challenges relating pathway. Last, discuss possible directions for nexus. By complex, multiscale, interconnected underpin pathway, unpacks multiple currently lie hidden hypothesis.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Facing involuntary immobility: Prioritizing the marginalized in climate and disaster risk policy DOI Creative Commons
Lisa Thalheimer, Fabien Cottier, Andrew Kruczkiewicz

et al.

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 17, 2025

Abstract Globally, populations are increasingly located in areas at high risk of frequent, extreme weather events. Some exposed have the ability to move safer places; others unable get out harm’s way. The climate risks facing these involuntary immobile not often addressed by local and national authorities, despite increasing recognition international development agencies humanitarian actors. Here we discuss when how events lead immobility considering influence political, socioeconomic, environmental factors. Addressing barriers policy disaster planning, early warning systems anticipatory action could be tailored support involuntarily communities. While planning should data-informed, lack appropriate data quality limit governments institutions from taking action. Immobility needs aligned with broader sustainable objectives which entail justice orderly migration.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Climate Change and Human Mobility: Considering Context, Mechanisms, and Selectivity DOI Creative Commons
Filiz Garip,

Christine M. Reed

Population and Development Review, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 27, 2025

Abstract Climate change is projected to increase human mobility. Research links climate stressors, such as warming temperatures, severe weather events, and rising sea levels, migration within between countries in many regions of the world. This paper reviews this new frontier for research charts directions future work. Understanding mobility, we argue, requires considering local context identify mechanisms (what impacts) selectivity (who responds). needs draw more on existing theory deduce patterns under alternative drivers mobility extend by how those shift shocks. also generalize from diverse findings documenting which are most common contexts.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Using Agent-Based Modelling to Analyse Typhoon Displacement in the Philippines DOI
Emily C. Nabong,

Killian Verder,

Alexander Mars

et al.

Springer proceedings in earth and environmental sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 499 - 515

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Unveiling the Dynamics of Human Mobility in Response to Wildfire-Induced Air Quality Degradation: An Examination of the 2019 Kincade Fire DOI
Xukai Shen, Huixin Zhang, Yanzhi Wang

et al.

Journal of Management in Engineering, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 41(3)

Published: Feb. 14, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0