Modelling Drought Risk Using Bivariate Spatial Extremes: Application to the Limpopo Lowveld Region of South Africa DOI Open Access
Murendeni Maurel Nemukula, Caston Sigauke, Hector Chikoore

et al.

Climate, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(2), P. 46 - 46

Published: Feb. 13, 2023

Weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts floods are projected to become more frequent intense in several regions. There is compelling evidence indicating that changes its over time influence the living conditions of society surrounding environment across globe. This study applies max-stable models capture spatio–temporal with dependence. The objective was analyse risk drought caused by extremely high temperatures deficient rainfall. Hopkin’s statistic used assess clustering tendency before using agglomerative method hierarchical cluster area into n=3 temperature clusters precipitation clusters. For data, values were 0.7317 0.8446, respectively, which shows both significantly clusterable. Various process then fitted each variable, Schlather model covariance functions found be a good fit on datasets compared Smith Gaussian function. modelling approach presented this paper could useful hydrologists, meteorologists climatologists, including decision-makers agricultural sector, enhancing their understanding behaviour low these compound also assist assessing impact change. It can seen from size, topography location (cluster/region), provides important information about strength extremal

Language: Английский

Advancements in drought using remote sensing: assessing progress, overcoming challenges, and exploring future opportunities DOI
Vijendra Kumar, Kul Vaibhav Sharma, Quoc Bao Pham

et al.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 155(6), P. 4251 - 4288

Published: March 5, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

11

Analysis of the Propagation Characteristics of Meteorological Drought to Hydrological Drought and Their Joint Effects on Low-Flow Drought Variability in the Oum Er Rbia Watershed, Morocco DOI Creative Commons
Ismaguil Hanadé Houmma, Abdessamad Hadri, Abdelghani Boudhar

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(2), P. 281 - 281

Published: Jan. 15, 2025

Analysis of the temporal relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological is crucial in monitoring water resource availability. This study examined linear lagged relationships spread to their joint effects on low-flow variability Oum Er-Rbia (OER) watershed. To this end, random forest (RF) model statistical methods were used characteristics indices at monthly, seasonal, annual scales. The various analyses revealed that mainly a function time scale considered, choice describe each type season considered. surface snow cover synchronized with In contrast, transition from groundwater has lag 1 month statistically significant up t − 5 + 5, i.e., 6 months. correlation rainfall deficit monthly storage index was lowest (0.15) December highest (0.83) March. suggests seasonal response cumulative precipitation deficits. RF analysis highlighted importance regarding severity drought. longer scales have greater impact drought, contribution approximately 10% per index. However, relative contributions factors rarely exceed 5%. Thus, by exploring for first complex interactions among regimes, factors, provides new perspective understanding propagation severe

Language: Английский

Citations

1

Enhancing Wetland Restoration through Machine Learning-Based Decision Support Systems DOI
Fredrick Kayusi, Petros Chavula

LatIA, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 3, P. 81 - 81

Published: Feb. 19, 2025

Researchers are increasingly employing Machine Learning (ML) and Deep (DL) algorithms to address complex geo-environmental challenges, particularly in predicting risk, susceptibility, vulnerability environmental changes. These advanced computational models have shown significant promise various applications, ranging from natural disaster prediction monitoring. Despite their growing usage, very few studies leveraged Learning-Based Decision Support Systems (MLBDSS) restore the health status of wetland habitats. To our knowledge, there no comparative analyses between traditional (DSS) this specific context. Wetlands play a crucial role supporting biodiversity, including fish wildlife populations, while also contributing improved water quality providing essential ecosystem services nearby communities. include flood control, carbon sequestration, filtration, which vital for both ecological human well-being. However, over past decades, areas, coastal regions, faced degradation due anthropogenic pressures, resulting substantial reduction these critical benefits. This ongoing loss poses serious socio-economic challenges that require immediate effective intervention. Current assessment mitigation frameworks often encounter limitations practical implementation, despite regulatory advancements aimed at promoting conservation. shortcomings can lead delayed project approvals, increased costs, further valuable services. Integrating ML DSS into management strategies could provide innovative solutions overcome by improving predictive accuracy, optimizing restoration efforts, enhancing decision-making processes. The development hybrid combining approaches may offer more holistic framework addressing loss, ultimately sustainable habitat conservation efforts.

Language: Английский

Citations

1

Meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring and trend analysis for selected gauged watersheds in the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia: Under future climate change impact scenario DOI Creative Commons
Melsew A. Wubneh,

Mikhael G. Alemu,

Fitamlak T. Fekadie

et al.

Scientific African, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 20, P. e01738 - e01738

Published: May 28, 2023

Since most of the countries in Africa rely on Agriculture supported by rainfall, they are especially vulnerable to dangers brought climate change, such as floods and droughts. Droughts Horn immediately danger starvation, particularly Ethiopia. This study uses ensemble GCM data at Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) examine future metrological hydrological drafts chosen gauged watershed, specifically Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Megech, Ribb. For analysis, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought (RDI), Streamflow (SDI) were used, along with from RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios. The SPI RDI used analyze drought, SDI was identify drought mid (2040–2079) long-term (2050–2079) period. Overall meteorological results show that annual time scale occurrence is higher than biannual both indices. Under (SPI6) (RDI12) for scenarios all horizons, 20.69% maximum record observed. While (SPI12) indices domains (mid far) display a frequency 17.24%. And according scenario, RDI6 also predicts droughts would occur 18.10% more frequently far future. Additionally, scenario has greatest across horizons 18.10%. Gumara Ribb watersheds typically susceptible periods. revealed analysis important take planning activities those who working researchers, water resource managers other professions basin. As result, will assist government, policymakers, decision-makers putting adoptions early warning actions place.

Language: Английский

Citations

16

Time-frequency connectedness between electricity prices in Romania and its determinants in the competitive markets DOI
Irina Georgescu, Simona‐Vasilica Oprea, Adela Bârã

et al.

Kybernetes, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 5, 2024

Purpose In this paper, we aim to provide an extensive analysis understand how various factors influence electricity prices in competitive markets, focusing on the day-ahead market Romania. Design/methodology/approach Our study period began January 2019, before COVID-19 pandemic, and continued for several months after onset of war Ukraine. During time, also consider other challenges like reduced competitiveness, droughts water scarcity. initial dataset comprises diverse variables: essential energy sources (like gas oil), Danube River levels (indicating hydrological conditions), economic indicators (such as inflation interest rates), total consumption production Romania a breakdown generation by source (coal, gas, hydro, oil, nuclear renewable sources) from data sources. Additionally, included carbon certificate import, export related variables. This was collected via application programming interface (API) web scraping, then synchronized date hour. Findings We discover that competitiveness significantly affected Furthermore, our price trends their determinants revealed health 2019 2020. However, 2021 onwards, signs potential crisis emerge, characterized changes normal relationships between quantities, among factors. Thus, suggests could serve predictive index crises. Overall, Granger causality findings 2022 offer valuable insights into driving dynamics Romania, highlighting importance policies, fuel costs environmental regulations shaping these dynamics. Originality/value combine principal component (PCA) reduce dataset’s dimensionality. Following this, use continuous wavelet transform (CWT) explore frequency-domain quantity (DAM) components derived PCA. research delves level DAM August 2022, analyzing Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI).

Language: Английский

Citations

4

Drought resistance index screening and evaluation of lettuce under water deficit conditions on the basis of morphological and physiological differences DOI Creative Commons
Jingrui Li,

Kumail Abbas,

Lin Wang

et al.

Frontiers in Plant Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14

Published: Sept. 15, 2023

Introduction Water is one of the important factors affecting yield leafy vegetables. Lettuce, as a widely planted vegetable, requires frequent irrigation due to its shallow taproot and high leaf evaporation rate. Therefore, screening drought-resistant genotypes great significance for lettuce production. Methods In present study, significant variations were observed among 13 morphological physiological traits 42 under normal water-deficient conditions. Results Frequency analysis showed that soluble protein (SP) was evenly distributed across six intervals. Principal component (PCA) conducted transform indexes into four independent comprehensive indicators with cumulative contribution ratio 94.83%. The stepwise regression root surface area (RSA), volume (RV), belowground dry weight (BDW), sugar (SS), SP, relative water content (RWC) could be used evaluate predict drought resistance genotypes. Furthermore, ranks similar according evaluation value (D value), coefficient (CDC), (WDC). cluster enabled division five groups; them, variety Yidali151 divided group I strongly variety, II included 6 genotypes, III 16 moderately IV 12 drought-sensitive V 7 highly Moreover, representative selected from each groups verify ability deficit it stomatal density, superoxide anion ( O 2. −wfi2 ) production rate, malondialdehyde (MDA) exhibited low increase while catalase (CAT), dismutase (SOD), peroxidase (POD) activity higher than in variety. Discussion summary, identified are because their can future breeding programs water-efficient cultivation.

Language: Английский

Citations

11

Space–time heterogeneity of drought characteristics in Sabah and Sarawak, East Malaysia: implications for developing effective drought monitoring and mitigation strategies DOI Creative Commons
Yuk Feng Huang, Jing Lin Ng,

Kit Fai Fung

et al.

Applied Water Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(10)

Published: Sept. 21, 2023

Abstract Natural calamities like droughts have harmed not just humanity throughout history but also the economy, food, agricultural production, flora, animal habitat, etc. A drought monitoring system must incorporate a study of geographical and temporal fluctuation characteristics to function effectively. This investigated space–time heterogeneity features across Sabah Sarawak, East Malaysia. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPIs) at timescales 1-month, 3-months, 6-months was selected determine spatial distribution characteristics. Rainfall hydrographs for area 30 years between 1988 2017 been used in this study. total six five-year sub-periods were studied, with an emphasis on lowest highest occurrence. division over arbitrary continual convenience. results showed that 1993–1997 2008–2012 had comparative events. conditions particularly severe Central Eastern parts Malaysia, owing El Nino events country's hilly terrain. Understanding how when occurs can aid establishing developing mitigation strategies region.

Language: Английский

Citations

10

Meteorolojik Kuraklığın Buğday Verimindeki Etkisinin Değerlendirilmesi: Kızılırmak Havzası Örneği DOI Open Access
Fatma Yaman Öz, Emre Özelkan, Kürşad Demirel

et al.

Türk Tarım ve Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 10 - 27

Published: Jan. 25, 2025

Çalışmada, tarımsal üretimin fazla ve kuraklığın etkili olduğu Kızılırmak Havzası’nda ekstrem kurak ayların yılların belirlenmesi ile kuraklık buğday verimi arasındaki ilişkinin değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. 1991-2022 yılları – verim ilişkisinin incelendiği çalışmada, havzada oluşan koşullarının belirlenmesinde Standartlaştırılmış Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndisi (SPEI) kullanılmıştır. Kuraklık 1, 3, 6, 9 12 aylık dönemlerde incelenmiştir. Çalışmamızda havzalar arasında aşırı değerleri 1994, 2008, 2014 2016 yıllarındadır. Kısa dönemli (1-3 aylık) şiddetinin, özellikle çalışma alanının güneyinde karasal iklimin Kayseri Ürgüp istasyonlarında, verimini olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Uzun (6-12 ise 2007-2014 güney kesimindeki Nevşehir istasyonunda yüksek korelasyon değerlerine sahip olup, şiddetinin arttığı verimde ciddi düşüşler gözlemlenmiştir. şiddeti tekrarlama sıklığının, iklim özellikleri, atmosferik koşullar artan sıcak hava dalgalarıyla birlikte 2000’li yıllardan itibaren belirgin şekilde arttığı, bu durumun da kayıplarına yol açtığı tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, buğdayın yaklaşık hasat zamanı olan Haziran ayına kadar yaşanan 6 meteorolojik koşulların Havzası’ndaki verimine olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, zamanla değiştiğini uzun süreli üretimi

Citations

0

Effects of Inconsistency in Drought Event Definitions on Drought Characteristics DOI Creative Commons
Frank Joseph Wambura

Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 12(2), P. 26 - 26

Published: Feb. 5, 2025

Drought, as one of the hazards exacerbated by climate change, has attracted attention many scientists. Many drought studies have used different event definitions (DEDs). However, little is known about effects these on characteristics. This study investigated DEDs characteristics using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Upper Pangani Basin northeast Tanzania. First, rainfall and air temperature data from Climatic Research Unit database were to compute SPEI. Then, four types identify events SPEI time series. The identified examined for agreements correlations Kappa Phi coefficients, respectively, finally characterized. findings show that produced frequencies events. patterns had ranging 52 78% 79% 95%. Different also led intensities, mild extreme, although overall intensities either or moderate. From this study, we can infer suitable essential identifying events, they enable accurate comparisons droughts across regions periods, consequently reducing errors biases evaluating hazards.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Multiple asynchronous drought facets drive Mediterranean natural and cultivated ecosystems DOI Creative Commons
Georgie Elias, Georgia Majdalani, Delphine Renard

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 969, P. 178990 - 178990

Published: March 1, 2025

Drought is a keystone constraint with far-reaching implications for agro-environmental threats. Yet, drought indices are mostly hydro-meteorological or agricultural, obscuring evidence of the key role agro-ecosystem diversity plays in buffering consequences regional climatic variability. We then question how contrasted facets could differentially drive functioning agro-ecosystems, and whether interannual asynchrony these might prevent multi-crisis events. Here, we examine multifaceted characterization yearly events relates to sectors test synchronize over Lebanon, Middle Eastern drought-prone country grappling socio-economic political crises. Using parsimonious multiple linear regression (MLR) models, captured combined functional roles six (duration, onset, offset, drying rate, peak day, mean intensity episodic rainfall pulses) on major sectors, including winter wheat yield, tree-ring radial growth, area burned by wildfires. Delayed offset faster spring soil moisture rates appeared more closely associated increased areas (R2 = 0.25), while onset autumn pulses from previous year were negatively linked yield 0.12), tree growth switched control duration increasing altitude 0.33). The observed response climate variability 1960-2020 period appears buffer occurrence concomitant extremes, pattern that relate their controlling facets. By demonstrating each facet, conclude efficiency compound functionally-sound index synchronous crisis warning.

Language: Английский

Citations

0