Spatiotemporal prediction of wildfire size extremes with Bayesian finite sample maxima DOI Creative Commons
Maxwell B. Joseph, Matthew W. Rossi, Nathan Mietkiewicz

et al.

Ecological Applications, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 29(6)

Published: April 13, 2019

Abstract Wildfires are becoming more frequent in parts of the globe, but predicting where and when wildfires occur remains difficult. To predict wildfire extremes across contiguous United States, we integrate a 30‐yr record with meteorological housing data spatiotemporal Bayesian statistical models spatially varying nonlinear effects. We compared different distributions for number sizes large fires to generate posterior predictive distribution based on finite sample maxima extreme events (the largest over bounded domains). A zero‐inflated negative binomial model fire counts lognormal burned areas provided best performance. This attains 99% interval coverage 93% six year withheld set. Dryness air temperature strongly probabilities. Housing density has hump‐shaped relationship occurrence, occurring at intermediate densities. Statistically, these drivers affect chance an two ways: by altering size distributions, frequency, which influences sampling from tails distributions. conclude that recent should not be surprising, States may verge even larger extremes.

Language: Английский

Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California DOI Creative Commons
Park Williams, John T. Abatzoglou, Alexander Gershunov

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 7(8), P. 892 - 910

Published: July 15, 2019

Abstract Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold summer forest‐fire extent. Increased area very likely occurred increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed approximately 1.4 °C as part centennial warming trend, significantly increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with simulated models. The response VPD is exponential, meaning that has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between strongly suggest nearly all during 1972–2018 was driven VPD. Climate effects were less evident nonforested lands. In fall, wind events delayed onset winter precipitation dominant promoters wildfire. While these variables did not much over past century, background consequent fuel drying enhancing potential for large fall wildfires. Among many processes important California's diverse regimes, warming‐driven clearest link activity date.

Language: Английский

Citations

862
Rethinking resilience to wildfire DOI Creative Commons
David B. McWethy,

Tania Schoennagel,

Philip E. Higuera

et al.

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 2(9), P. 797 - 804

Published: Aug. 19, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

262
State of the Climate in 2018 DOI Open Access
John R. Christy, Stephen Po‐Chedley,

Carl R. Mears

et al.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 100(9), P. Si - S306

Published: Sept. 1, 2019

Abstract Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of State Climate for 2019 is a low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy report available by clicking here . Please be patient as it may take few minutes file to download.

Language: Английский

Citations

228
Human–environmental drivers and impacts of the globally extreme 2017 Chilean fires DOI
David M. J. S. Bowman, Andrés Moreira‐Muñoz, Crystal A. Kolden

et al.

AMBIO, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 48(4), P. 350 - 362

Published: Aug. 20, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

171
Twenty-first century California, USA, wildfires: fuel-dominated vs. wind-dominated fires DOI Creative Commons
Jon E. Keeley, Alexandra D. Syphard

Fire Ecology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: July 18, 2019

Since the beginning of twenty-first century California, USA, has experienced a substantial increase in frequency large wildfires, often with extreme impacts on people and property. Due to size state, it is not surprising that factors driving these changes differ across this region. Although there are always multiple wildfire behavior, we believe helpful model for understanding fires state frame discussion terms bottom-up vs. top-down controls fire behavior; is, clearly dominated by anomalously high fuel loads from those wind events. Of course, distinction somewhat artificial all controlled involving fuels, winds, topography. However, recognizable as fuel-dominated wind-dominated provide interesting case studies behind two extremes. These types greatly their (1) geographical distribution (2) past history, (3) prominent sources ignition, (4) seasonal timing, (5) resources most at risk, (6) requirement different management responses.

Language: Английский

Citations

151
Smoke-weather interaction affects extreme wildfires in diverse coastal regions DOI
Xin Huang, Ke Ding, Jingyi Liu

et al.

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(6631), P. 457 - 461

Published: Feb. 2, 2023

Extreme wildfires threaten human lives, air quality, and ecosystems. Meteorology plays a vital role in wildfire behaviors, the links between climate have been widely studied. However, it is not fully clear how fire-weather feedback affects short-term variability, which undermines our ability to mitigate fire disasters. Here, we show primacy of synoptic-scale driving extreme fires Mediterranean monsoon regimes West Coast United States Southeastern Asia. We found that radiative effects smoke aerosols can modify near-surface wind, dryness, rainfall thus worsen pollution by enhancing emissions weakening dispersion. The intricate interactions among wildfires, smoke, weather form positive loop substantially increases exposure.

Language: Английский

Citations

112
Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires DOI Creative Commons
Philip E. Higuera, Maxwell Cook, Jennifer K. Balch

et al.

PNAS Nexus, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 2(3)

Published: Feb. 1, 2023

Structure loss is an acute, costly impact of the wildfire crisis in western conterminous United States ("West"), motivating need to understand recent trends and causes. We document a 246% rise West-wide structure from wildfires between 1999-2009 2010-2020, driven strongly by events 2017, 2018, 2020. Increased was not due increased area burned alone. Wildfires became significantly more destructive, with 160% higher structure-loss rate (loss/kha burned) over past decade. primarily unplanned human-related ignitions (e.g. backyard burning, power lines, etc.), which accounted for 76% all resulted 10 times structures destroyed per unit compared lightning-ignited fires. Annual well explained ignitions, while decadal state-level abundance flammable vegetation. Both predictors decades likely interacted fuel aridity drive trends. While states are diverse patterns trends, nearly experienced burning and/or rates, particularly California, Washington, Oregon. Our findings highlight how fire regimes-characteristics space time-are fundamentally social-ecological phenomena. By resolving diversity Western regimes, our work informs regionally appropriate mitigation adaptation strategies. With millions high risk, reducing rethinking we build critical preventing future disasters.

Language: Английский

Citations

45
Introduction to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System† DOI Creative Commons
J. J. Hollis,

Stuart Matthews,

Paul Fox‐Hughes

et al.

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 33(3)

Published: March 18, 2024

Background Fire danger rating systems are used daily across Australia to support fire management operations and communications the general public regarding potential danger. Aims In this paper, we introduce Australian Danger Rating System (AFDRS), providing a short historical account of in as well requirements for an improved forecast system. Methods The AFDRS combines nationally consistent, spatially explicit fuel information with weather advanced behaviour models knowledge produce locally relevant ratings potential. Key results A well-defined framework is essential categorising defining based on operational response, impact observable characteristics incidents. modular, supporting continuous incremental improvements allowing upgrades components response new science. Conclusions provides method estimate best available models, leading potentially significant way calculated, interpreted. Implications was implemented 2022, most change forecasting more than 50 years.

Language: Английский

Citations

20
Inference of Wildfire Causes From Their Physical, Biological, Social and Management Attributes DOI Creative Commons
Yavar Pourmohamad, John T. Abatzoglou, Erica Fleishman

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract Effective wildfire prevention includes actions to deliberately target different causes. However, the cause of an increasing number wildfires is unknown, hindering targeted efforts. We developed a machine learning model ignition across western United States on basis physical, biological, social, and management attributes associated with wildfires. Trained from 1992 2020 12 known causes, overall accuracy our exceeded 70% when applied out‐of‐sample test data. Our more accurately separated ignited by natural versus human causes (93% accuracy), discriminated among 11 classes human‐ignited 55% accuracy. attributed greatest percentage 150,247 for which source was unknown equipment vehicle use (21%), lightning (20%), arson incendiarism (18%).

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Mechanisms of Fire Seasonality Effects on Plant Populations DOI
Russell G. Miller, Ryan Tangney, Neal J. Enright

et al.

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 34(12), P. 1104 - 1117

Published: Aug. 6, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

128