A global outlook on increasing wildfire risk: Current policy situation and future pathways

Trees Forests and People, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14, P. 100431 - 100431

Published: Sept. 4, 2023

to understand how wildfire risk policies are designed mitigate1 the impacts of wildfires. Wildfires a growing threat in many parts world, posing significant risks human life, and environment. In recent years, wildfires have increased, driven largely by climate change, activity, changes land-use patterns. Wildfire adaptation mitigation measures vary widely between countries regions around world. Therefore, it is essential develop comprehensive policy approach mitigate promote sustainable forest land management practices. This article aims provide insight into policies, implementation actions, their effectiveness describing centered mainly on exclusion mitigation. examines existing wildfire-related relevant literature based 10 systematic factors. Further exploring these can be enhanced meet challenges coming years for six European (Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, UK) as well Australia, Canada, USA, South Africa. The status quo, perceived strengths, weaknesses, recommendations from key-informants were presented enhance each country. analyses current fire-prone countries, highlighting regional variations need an integrated strategy. It offers country-specific participants viewpoints, coordinated efforts management.

Language: Английский

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State of Wildfires 2023–2024

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(8), P. 3601 - 3685

Published: Aug. 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these climate land use forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–2024 season, 3.9×106 km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global C record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) reduced low African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking extent Canada, largest recorded wildfire European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawaii (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece, a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels probability fires, whereas area anomalies weaker regions lower fuel loads higher direct suppression, particularly Canada. Fire prediction showed mild anomalous signal 1 2 months advance, Greece had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution indicated modelled up 40 %, 18 50 due during respectively. Meanwhile, seasons magnitudes has significantly anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude 2023 are projected occur 6.3–10.8 more frequently medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society's resilience promote advances preparedness, mitigation, adaptation. New datasets presented this work available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley 2024a).

Language: Английский

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Measuring long-term exposure to wildfire PM _2.5 in California: Time-varying inequities in environmental burden

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(8)

Published: Feb. 13, 2024

Wildfires have become more frequent and intense due to climate change outdoor wildfire fine particulate matter (PM

Language: Английский

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Late Pleistocene emergence of an anthropogenic fire regime in Australia’s tropical savannahs

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 233 - 240

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract At the time of European arrival on Australian continent, sophisticated Indigenous societies practiced land management across Australia’s extensive tropical savannahs. Fire was one main tools people used to manipulate fuel loads and connectivity reduce uncontrolled wildfire, maintain vegetation structure enhance biodiversity. When this alteration a ‘natural’ fire regime human-dominated occurred is not known. Here we assessed incidence intensity over past 150,000 years through continuous lacustrine record by comparing accumulation rates micro-charcoal stable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon that form during combustion vegetation. We also compared grass (mainly C 4 ) pollen as percentage total dryland with carbon isotope composition hydrocarbon. established high statistical certainty change in at least 11,000 ago from less-frequent, more-intense fires more-frequent, less-intense fires. This marked overprinting largely natural modulated management. Our findings demonstrate human use has modified regimes throughout Holocene show how have managed potential for type high-intensity are likely increase future.

Language: Английский

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Introduction to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System†

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 33(3)

Published: March 18, 2024

Background Fire danger rating systems are used daily across Australia to support fire management operations and communications the general public regarding potential danger. Aims In this paper, we introduce Australian Danger Rating System (AFDRS), providing a short historical account of in as well requirements for an improved forecast system. Methods The AFDRS combines nationally consistent, spatially explicit fuel information with weather advanced behaviour models knowledge produce locally relevant ratings potential. Key results A well-defined framework is essential categorising defining based on operational response, impact observable characteristics incidents. modular, supporting continuous incremental improvements allowing upgrades components response new science. Conclusions provides method estimate best available models, leading potentially significant way calculated, interpreted. Implications was implemented 2022, most change forecasting more than 50 years.

Language: Английский

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Shifting fire regimes cause continent-wide transformation of threatened species habitat

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(18)

Published: April 22, 2024

Human actions are causing widespread increases in fire size, frequency, and severity diverse ecosystems globally. This alteration of regimes is considered a threat to numerous animal species, but empirical evidence how shifting within both threatened species’ ranges protected areas scarce, particularly at large spatial temporal scales. We used big data approach quantify multidecadal changes southern Australia from 1980 2021, spanning 415 reserves (21.5 million ha) 129 including birds, mammals, reptiles, invertebrates, frogs. Most the region have experienced declines unburnt vegetation (≥30 y without fire), recently burnt (≤5 since frequency. The mean percentage declined 61 36% (1980 2021), whereas increased 20 35%, frequency by 32%, with latter two trends primarily driven record-breaking 2019 2020 season. strongest occurred for high-elevation high elevation, productivity, strong rainfall decline, southeast continent. Our results provide widely held poorly tested assumption that species experiencing habitat underscores imperative developing management strategies conserve fire-threatened an increasingly fiery future.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change, Landscape Fires, and Human Health: A Global Perspective

Annual Review of Public Health, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 45(1), P. 295 - 314

Published: Jan. 2, 2024

Landscape fires are an integral component of the Earth system and a feature prehistoric, subsistence, industrial economies. Specific spatiotemporal patterns landscape fire occur in different locations around world, shaped by interactions between environmental human drivers activity. Seven distinct types emerge from these interactions: remote area fires, wildfire disasters, savanna Indigenous burning, prescribed agricultural deforestation fires. All can have substantial impacts on health well-being directly indirectly through (a) exposure to heat flux (e.g., injuries destructive impacts), (b) emissions smoke-related (c) altered ecosystem functioning biodiversity, amenity, water quality, climate impacts). Minimizing adverse effects population requires understanding how influences be modified interventions targeted at individual, community, regional levels.

Language: Английский

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Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene

PNAS Nexus, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1(3)

Published: July 1, 2022

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are fundamental cause consequence global change, impacting people the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change radical changes to ecosystems, danger increasing, fires having increasingly devastating impacts human health, infrastructure, ecosystem services. Increasing vexing problem requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, inclusive partnerships address. Here, we outline barriers opportunities in next generation science provide guidance investment future research. We synthesize insights needed better address long-standing challenges innovation across disciplines (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways knowing knowledge generation; (iii) exploration science; (iv) capitalize "firehose" data societal benefit; (v) integrate natural into models multiple scales. thus at critical transitional moment. need shift from observation modeled representations varying components climate, people, vegetation, more integrative predictive approaches support pathways toward mitigating adapting our flammable world, including utilization safety benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos accessing diverse communities can effectively undertake improves outcomes fiery future.

Language: Английский

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The 2019–2020 Australian forest fires are a harbinger of decreased prescribed burning effectiveness under rising extreme conditions

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: July 13, 2022

Abstract There is an imperative for fire agencies to quantify the potential prescribed burning mitigate risk life, property and environmental values while facing changing climates. The 2019–2020 Black Summer fires in eastern Australia raised questions about effectiveness of mitigating under unprecedented conditions. We performed a simulation experiment test effects different rates treatment on risks posed by wildfire infrastructure. In four forested case study landscapes, we found that were substantially higher weather conditions season, compared full range long-term historic For area burnt house loss, resulted more than doubling residual across regardless rate (mean increase 230%, 164–360%). Fire managers must prepare level as climate change increases likelihood similar or even dangerous seasons.

Language: Английский

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TeutongNet: A Fine-Tuned Deep Learning Model for Improved Forest Fire Detection

Leuser Journal of Environmental Studies, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 1 - 8

Published: June 22, 2023

Forest fires have emerged as a significant threat to the environment, wildlife, and human lives, necessitating development of effective early detection systems for firefighting mitigation efforts. In this study, we introduce TeutongNet, modified ResNet50V2 model designed detect forest accurately. The is trained on curated dataset evaluated using various metrics. Results show that TeutongNet achieves high accuracy (98.68%) with low false positive negative rates. model's performance further supported by ROC curve analysis, which indicates degree in classifying fire non-fire images. demonstrates its effectiveness reliable detection, providing valuable insights improved management strategies.

Language: Английский

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