A spatially explicit framework for assessing ecosystem service supply risk under multiple land‐use scenarios in the Xi'an Metropolitan Area of China DOI
Lixian Peng, Liwei Zhang, Xupu Li

et al.

Land Degradation and Development, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 35(8), P. 2754 - 2770

Published: April 27, 2024

Abstract Rapid global urbanization has perturbed ecosystem structures and functions, resulting in ecological risk threatening sustainable human well‐being socioeconomic development. However, scientific indicators to analyze service (ES) patterns need be explored detail. In addition, studies on ES supply are stagnating historical or status explorations, especially from the view of disturbance land‐use changes. This study seeks develop a framework for modeling past‐future pattern evaluation probing into under different future scenarios. To achieve this objective, integrates Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, Intelligent Urban Ecosystem Management System (IUEMS) an established indicator system incorporating trend, hotspots coldspots, trade‐offs, synergies. The results show that: (1) 2050, climate regulation Xi'an Metropolitan Area (XMA) will increase, while that carbon sequestration recreation decrease. is highest protection (EP) scenario, cropland (CP) scenario. (2) From 2000 coldspots increase both natural development (ND) scenario CP Notably, experiences most significant reduction extremely sequestration. at regional pixel scales, mainly (3) XMA high center low north south. 2050 increasing, with expanding “extremely risk”, “high safe” areas. management should adhere more strict policies guidelines, zoning areas levels risk, accurate understanding trade‐offs synergies management. could provide theoretical technical references assessment research promote

Language: Английский

Multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem service value for optimization of land use in the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological barrier, China DOI Creative Commons
Chen Li, Yingmei Wu, Binpin Gao

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 132, P. 108328 - 108328

Published: Oct. 27, 2021

Key ecological function areas are responsible for protecting and restoring ecosystems alleviating regional deterioration. Revealing the inherent relationship between land use/cover (LULC) change ecosystem service value (ESV) in such is of great significance sustainable development. We used LULC other data from 2000, 2010, 2018 to analyze spatiotemporal evolution ESV China's Sichuan-Yunnan Ecological Barrier based on six types: Farmland, Forest, Grassland, Water, Built-up land, Other. With goal maximizing both economic benefits, we coupled gray multi-objective optimization (GMOP) patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) models assess three scenarios (business-as-usual, BAU; development priority, EDP; balance, EEB) terms spatial distribution structure 2026. The study area was dominated by Forest with major changes 2000 mainly deriving transfers Grassland along Farmland conversion land. trended upward during period, due contributions Water. Under EDP scenario 2026, expansion eased, which smallest among 3 at 643.03 km2, increased 673.80 overall improved, total 2.502 billion yuan. EEB scenario, decreased 405.95 but benefits remarkably, showing effect supporting larger-scale growth less resource consumption. were most dramatic local scales. use GMOP-PLUS allowed improved assessment social, economic, environmental factors provided a new way address key technical problem planning large-scale areas.

Language: Английский

Citations

225
Soil conservation ecosystem service supply-demand and multi scenario simulation in the Loess Plateau, China DOI Creative Commons

Zhen Jian,

Yingjun Sun, Fang Wang

et al.

Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 49, P. e02796 - e02796

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Ecosystem services are an essential foundation for sustainable human development. In view of the severe soil erosion on Loess Plateau (LP), it is important to explore spatial and temporal characteristics supply-demand balance conservation (SCSs). this study, ecosystem service ratio was innovatively proposed quantitatively assess supply demand conservation. First, InVEST model used spatially quantify (soil retention) erosion) (SCS) in LP from 2005 2020. Meanwhile, variation matching were analyzed. Second, predict future, InVEST-PLUS simulate under multiple scenarios 2030. The natural development (NDS), ecological protection (EPS) economic (EDS) coupled with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) representative concentration (RCPs). results showed that: (1) 2020, annual average modulus increased by 60.58 (t/(hm²·a)); retention per unit area 12.89 t/hm2; both northwest southeast, pattern mainly low-low shifted low-high each year; (2) based LULC simulated PLUS model, kappa coefficient overall accuracy 86.29% 91.14%, respectively. A total 19.8% 22.97% built-up land expanded NDS EDS scenarios, respectively, a 17,515.65 km2 forestland grassland EPS scenario; (3) 2030.NDS-SSP245, 2030.EPS-SSP126 2030.EDS-SSP585 moderate high surpluses accounted 11.40%, 14.34% 10.80% surplus area, respectively; compared deficit 49.67%, 43.29% 56.65% study provided innovations coupling degree future model.

Language: Английский

Citations

20
Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin DOI Creative Commons

Yuanyuan Lou,

Dan Yang, Pengyan Zhang

et al.

Land, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 11(7), P. 992 - 992

Published: June 29, 2022

Land use change plays a crucial role in global environmental change. Understanding the mode and land procedure is conducive to improving quality of eco-environment promoting harmonized development human–land relationships. Large river basins play an important areal socioeconomic development. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) ecological protective screen, economic zone, major grain producing area China, which faces challenges with respect degradation water sediment management. Simulating alterations ecosystem service value (ESV) owing YRB under multiple scenarios great importance guaranteeing security basin improve regional ESV. According data 1990, 2000, 2010, 2018, ESV over past 30 years were calculated analyzed on basis six types: cultivated land, forestland, grassland, area, built-up unused land. patch-generating simulation (PLUS) model was used simulate study three (natural development, protection, protection 2026); estimate each scenario; conduct comparative analysis. We found that changed significantly during period. has slowly increased by ~USD 15 billion years. obtained scenario highest. YRB’s future change, comparison analysis different scenarios, provide guidance scientific for conservation high-quality worldwide.

Language: Английский

Citations

60
Integrating Land Use, Ecosystem Service, and Human Well-Being: A Systematic Review DOI Open Access
Mengxue Liu, Hejie Wei, Xiaobin Dong

et al.

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(11), P. 6926 - 6926

Published: June 6, 2022

Global change, population growth, and urbanization have been exerting a severe influence on the environment, including social system ecosystem. To find solutions based nature, clarifying complicated mechanisms feedback among land use/land cover changes, ecosystem services, human well-being, is increasingly crucial. However, in-depth linkages these three elements not clearly systematically illustrated, present research paths summarized well, future trends this topic reasonably discussed. In sense, purpose of paper to provide an insight into how well-being are linked, as well their relationships, interacting ways, applications in solving ecological socioeconomic problems, reveal trends. Here, we use systematic literature review peer-reviewed conclude state art progress, emphasize hotspot, trend nexus aspects. Results show that (1) services generally altered by changes type, spatial pattern, intensity; (2) usually used for supporting poverty alleviation, health, biodiversity conservation, sustainable development; (3) should mainly focus strengthening multiscale correlation, driving force analysis, correlation different group characteristics, types service preferences, impact climate change well-being. This study provides enhanced understanding aspects reference studies mitigate relevant problems.

Language: Английский

Citations

47
Evaluation of future wetland changes under optimal scenarios and land degradation neutrality analysis in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area DOI
Kaifeng Peng, Weiguo Jiang, Xuejun Wang

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 879, P. 163111 - 163111

Published: March 24, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

29
Simulation and prediction of land use change in Dongguan of China based on ANN cellular automata - Markov chain model DOI Creative Commons
Wencong Yue,

Chenghao Qin,

Meirong Su

et al.

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 22, P. 100355 - 100355

Published: Feb. 2, 2024

Simulation and prediction of land use cover change (LUCC) in cities can effectively identify trends conversion support the decision-making process regarding future urban development. To LUCC effects its inherent climatic, geographical, socioeconomic drivers, this study developed a hybrid method for predicting type area based on Markov chain model simulating spatial distribution an artificial neural network, cellular automata approach, Land Expansion Analysis Strategy. The proposed was shown effective following aspects: (1) identification variation, (2) simulation distribution, (3) analysis contribution different driving factors to LUCC. approach applied city Dongguan. patterns changed balanced manner, according movement distances gravity center during 2010–2020. Compared with pattern 2020, ecological projected diminish by 0.67 %, 1.42 2.07 % 2025, 2030, 2035, respectively. Based land-use areas Dongguan, woodland would reduce 7.42 growth rate building be slow. It recommended that conservation district should established, especially central mountainous region

Language: Английский

Citations

14
Spatio-temporal interaction and constraint effects between ecosystem services and human activity intensity in Shaanxi Province,China DOI Creative Commons
Qi-Min An,

Xuefeng Yuan,

Xin‐Rong Zhang

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 160, P. 111937 - 111937

Published: March 1, 2024

Identifying spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem services and understanding the temporal correlations between service exploration human activity intensity are vital for achieving regional harmony activities environment, ultimately fostering sustainable development. Previous studies primarily concentrated on impact of while overlooking intricate spatiotemporal dynamics nonlinear relationships. In this study, which leveraged multi-source data, we found increasing trends Human Footprint Index (HFI), most pronounced central region Shaanxi Province. From 2000 to 2020, Province consistently exhibited an distribution pattern characterized by a 'high central-south low northwest' trend. Habitat Quality (HQ) maintained high values, signifying favorable habitat conditions, Food Production (FP) remained relatively stable. Carbon Sequestration (CS) Soil Conservation (SC) displayed diverse patterns, whereas Water Yield (WY) showed noticeable fluctuations.This analysis revealed negative correlation HFI indicators Total Ecosystem Services (TES). Constraint lines delineated hump-shaped relationships TES across various geomorphic areas. Notably, differences regions were significant, threshold identified. negatively correlated with TES, moderate growth improved services, yet exceeding ecological thresholds caused decline. Overall,this study informs necessary management Shaanxi, highlighting need balanced policies predictive models that ensure development without crossing critical thresholds. Future work should concentrate developing incorporate environmental, technological, socio-economic variables, better anticipate mitigate impacts activities.

Language: Английский

Citations

13
Assessing and predicting changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Ibb City, Yemen: a three-decade analysis and future outlook DOI Creative Commons
Abdulkarem Qasem Dammag, Jian Dai, Cong Guo

et al.

International Journal of Digital Earth, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(1)

Published: March 11, 2024

Assessing ecosystem services values (ESV) within land use/land cover (LULC) changes is crucial for promoting human well-being and sustainable development of regional ecosystems. Yet, the spatial relationship between LULC still unclear in Yemen. This study aimed to assess impacts on ESV Ibb City, over three decades (1990–2020), predict 2050. The hybrid use classification technique classifying Landsat images, CA-Markov model prediction, benefit transfer method (BTM) assessment were employed. Our findings revealed that there was a continuous increase built-up areas barren land, with decrease cultivated grassland, which are predicted continue next 30 years. Consequently, total has decreased from US$ 68.5 × 106 1990 65.2 2020 expected further reduce 61.2 by 2050, reflecting impact urban expansion socio-economic activities ESV. provides insights future monitoring, will contribute formulation effective land-use strategies more services, particularly rapidly urbanizing data-limited regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Assessing the Urban Eco-Environmental Quality by the Remote-Sensing Ecological Index: Application to Tianjin, North China DOI Creative Commons
Ting Zhang, Ruiqing Yang,

Yibo Yang

et al.

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 10(7), P. 475 - 475

Published: July 10, 2021

The remote-sensing ecological index (RSEI), which is built with greenness, moisture, dryness, and heat, has become increasingly recognized for its use in urban eco-environment quality assessment. To improve the reliability of such assessment, we propose a new RSEI-based assessment method where impact RSEI indicators on seasonal change are examined considered. northern Chinese municipal city Tianjin was selected as case study to test proposed method. Landsat images acquired spring, summer, autumn, winter were obtained processed three different years (1992, 2005, 2018) multitemporal analysis. Results from show that both contributions values vary season variability should be considered by normalizing indicator measures differently using more representative images, respectively. assessed was, overall, improving owing governmental environmental protection measures, but damage caused rapid expansion sea reclamation Binhai New Area still needs noted. It concluded our viable can provide reliable result helps gain accurate understanding evolution over seasons years.

Language: Английский

Citations

55
Spatial–temporal evolution of ESV and its response to land use change in the Yellow River Basin, China DOI Creative Commons
Jie Yang,

Baopeng Xie,

Degang Zhang

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: July 30, 2022

Abstract The value of ecosystem services, as well their temporal and spatial characteristics, can be used to help areas develop focused localized sustainable ecological management plans. Thus, this study conducted in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) China, analyzed service (ESV) its spatial–temporal variation characteristics. This equivalent factor geospatial exploration methods, introduced elasticity coefficient, explored response ESV change land-use change, based on land use cover data from 1990 2020. results showed that 2020, YRB an overall increasing trend, mainly because construction project increased forest grasslands region. In past 30 years, characteristics was relatively stable. high-value were distributed upper Basin, while low-value lower cold hot spots reduced. barycenter coordinates direction transfer trajectory, which is first southwest, northeast, then southwest. From 2000 2010, had greater impact ESV. Since disturbance services by has decreased. Consequently, elastic index upstream Loess Plateau regions significantly higher than other regions, more obvious, due improved large-scale projects implementation. Conclusively, recommends comprehensive assessment for development protection YRB.

Language: Английский

Citations

34