Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China

Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(1), P. 115 - 115

Published: Jan. 8, 2025

Exploring the future ecosystem service value (ESV) of upper–middle Yellow River Basin is great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This in response strategy for protection high-quality development Basin. In this study, land use change from 2000 2020 was analyzed quantitatively. The pattern 2035 predicted using Cellular Automata Markov models under business as usual (BAU), (EPS), high urbanization (HUS) scenarios. ESV estimated impact changes on regional identified. results indicate that study area experienced a reduction (~12,139 km2) cultivation an expansion (~10,597 built-up 2020. 2035, BAU scenario, construction water would expand by 24.52% 11.51%, respectively, while grassland unused decrease 18,520 km2 2770 km2, respectively. Under EPS forests, grasslands, increase 16.57%, 10.59%, 4%, three different scenarios, ESVs are at CNY 2475 2710 billion, grasslands contribute largest part accounting 57.98% 59.21%. These findings could help guide through construction.

Language: Английский

---

Instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change: a case study in Guiyang, China

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13

Published: Feb. 20, 2025

Introduction Karst regions are integral to the global carbon cycle. However, land use changes of karst driven by urbanization and desertification contribute instability storage, leading uncertainties in future. Understanding these instabilities is crucial for formulating sequestration management strategies. Methods This study employed Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Trade-offs (InVEST) estimate introduced Coefficient Variation (CV) assess uncertainty. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) was applied explore mechanisms, while Polynomial (PR) identified stable intervals factors, informing land-use policies. Results Discussion (1) From 2000 2020, Guiyang’s storage rose from 136.62 Tg 142.13 Tg. By 2035, projections under natural development, urban expansion, ecological protection scenarios increases 147.50 Tg, 147.40 147.82 respectively. (2) Carbon increased uncertainty expected decrease 2035. Instability primarily due transitions Cropland-Forest, Forest-Cropland, Cropland-Grassland, Cropland-Impervious, mainly arise Grassland-Impervious transitions. (3) DEM, AI, Distance national highways, SHDI, Mean annual precipitation affected significantly. (4) Encouraging Shrub-Forest, Shrub-Cropland Cropland-Forest conversions, controlling Forest-Shrub, Cropland-Impervious conversions within can enhance reduce establishes a methodology evaluating regions, which an extension research.

Language: Английский

---

Changes in landscape disturbance intensity of sloping land in mountainous areas and their relationship with ecosystem services

Nature Conservation, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 58, P. 129 - 152

Published: March 7, 2025

The stability of landscapes on sloping land forms the foundation for ecological protection and sustainable development in mountainous regions. However, with intensification human activities, particularly complex areas southwest China, landscape patterns have been severely disrupted. This study examines spatiotemporal changes disturbance intensity Guiyang their impact ecosystem services. findings show that, over past 20 years, overall has generally decreased, between 2000 2010. increased certain gradient zones, such as slopes 20–25 degrees. Meanwhile, services declined, especially water yield crop production, while carbon stock slightly increased. reveals a significant spatial correlation services, varying relationships across different It emphasises profound activities steeper slopes. contribution this research lies providing scientific basis management service conservation areas, highlighting importance mitigating strengthening restoration.

Language: Английский

---

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions

Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 833 - 833

Published: April 11, 2025

The value of ecosystem services (ESV) serves as a crucial metric for assessing the cost-effectiveness ecosystems and evaluating their economic worth. Predicting evolution ESV across various land uses under different scenarios is essential maintaining ecological stability fostering sustainable developm0ent. Utilizing use change data combined with PLUS predictive model service equivalence techniques, this study analyzes spatiotemporal patterns underlying drivers in Yuzhong County, China. results indicate that overall distribution exhibits “fragmented northeast, clustered southwest” pattern, dominated by high-high low-low clustering. Among driving factors, elevation exerts greatest influence on ESV, followed precipitation population density, while slope contributes least. Under natural development scenarios, remains relatively stable compared to base year 2020. In contrast, farmland protection scenario effectively preserves associated cultivated land. However, leads significant decline retraction high-value areas an expansion low-value regions. These insights provide fresh perspective analyzing factors influencing conducting multi-scenario predictions, thereby aiding resource conservation landscape risk prevention strategies region.

Language: Английский

---

Spatial–Temporal Divergence and Coupling Analysis of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(15), P. 6624 - 6624

Published: Aug. 2, 2024

Land use changes (LUC) have exacerbated the evolution of ecosystem structure in urban agglomeration Yangtze River Delta (YRDUA), significantly affecting service functions and values. Although impact land on value (ESV) has received significant attention, most existing studies explore relationship between LUC ESV at national, provincial, or regional scales. Few focus agglomerations, particularly YRDUA. Additionally, while many analyze driving factors services trade-offs synergies among them, there is a relative scarcity research coupling coordination ESV. In this study, we used assessment model to dynamically spatio-temporal YRDUA from 2000 2020 evaluated dynamic two using coupled system. The results show following: (1) types within underwent during study period, with notable decrease farmland substantial increase construction being dominant trends. (2) showed upward downward trends over different periods, water bodies having highest value, followed by forested farmland, respectively. trend first increasing then decreasing. Higher ESVs were mainly concentrated around lakes such as Taihu Lake coastal areas along River, radiating outward these central points. (3) Currently, degree (CCD) intensity mostly reluctant coordinated state primary coordination. However, time, CCD increased. addition, variations cities more pronounced, showing spatial pattern characterized higher levels eastern/northern regions compared western/southern regions. Our can provide policy references for improving planning, optimizing structures, realizing high-quality, sustainable, green, development

Language: Английский

---

Identifying the Response of Ecological Well–Being to Ecosystem Services of Urban Green Space Using the Coupling Coordination Degree Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China, 2015–2023

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(9), P. 1494 - 1494

Published: Aug. 26, 2024

Understanding the response of ecological well–being to ecosystem services urban green space is imperative for conservation and management. However, few studies have focused on process spatial relationship in mega cities, while residents’ demand evaluation not been fully considered. In this study, index system was developed through integrating subjective objective indicators. Using main area Beijing as an example, our results indicate that from 2015 2023, has continuously increasing. Moreover, study indicated coupling coordination degree between still need be improved. addition, three modes were identified study: high area, moderate low area. The finding extracted these models should provide references planning maintain sustainable

Language: Английский

---