PRINCIPLE OF DYNAMIC BALANCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESS AND THE LIMITS OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH DOI
Victor Zakharov

Доклады Российской академии наук Математика информатика процессы управления, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 513(1), P. 108 - 114

Published: Sept. 1, 2023

The article proposed a new model of the dynamics growth World population, including discrete equations percentage increases in integral volumes inflow and outflow balance equation population size. principle dynamic demographic process condition interval consistency based on this are formulated. A sample example forecasting period from 2011 to 2021 is given, demonstrating possibility building linear trends increase volume dead people, dynamically consistent with corresponding intervals statistics born children earlier periods. Based model, forecast after was built, assuming that by 2050 will reach 9.466 billion, 2062 it maximum level 9.561 which begin decline 2100 amount 8.670 billion.

Language: Английский

New Challenges in the Mathematical Modelling and Control of COVID-19 Epidemics: Analysis of Non-Pharmaceutical Actions and Vaccination Strategies DOI Creative Commons
Cristiano Maria Verrelli, Fabio Della Rossa

Mathematics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(9), P. 1353 - 1353

Published: April 29, 2024

Following its official appearance in China December 2019, COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infection immediately reached pandemic proportions on six continents and over 195 countries [...]

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Zero-and-One Integer-Valued AR(1) Time Series with Power Series Innovations and Probability Generating Function Estimation Approach DOI Creative Commons
Vladica Stojanović, Hassan S. Bakouch, Еуген Љајко

et al.

Mathematics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(8), P. 1772 - 1772

Published: April 7, 2023

Zero-and-one inflated count time series have only recently become the subject of more extensive interest and research. One possible approaches is represented by first-order, non-negative, integer-valued autoregressive processes with zero-and-one innovations, abbr. ZOINAR(1) processes, introduced recently, around year 2020 to present. This manuscript presents a generalization ZOINAR given introducing power (ZOIPS) distributions. Thus, obtained process, named ZOIPS-INAR(1) has been investigated in terms its basic stochastic properties (e.g., moments, correlation structure distributional properties). To estimate parameters model, addition conditional least-squares (CLS) method, recent estimation technique based on probability-generating functions (PGFs) discussed. The asymptotic estimators are also examined, as well their Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, an application dynamic analysis number deaths from disease COVID-19 Serbia considered.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Asymptotic Properties and Application of GSB Process: A Case Study of the COVID-19 Dynamics in Serbia DOI Creative Commons
Mihailo R. Jovanović, Vladica Stojanović, Kristijan Kuk

et al.

Mathematics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(20), P. 3849 - 3849

Published: Oct. 17, 2022

This paper describes one of the non-linear (and non-stationary) stochastic models, GSB (Gaussian, or Generalized, Split-BREAK) process, which is used in analysis time series with pronounced and accentuated fluctuations. In beginning, structure process its important distributional asymptotic properties are given. To that end, a method based on characteristic functions (CFs) was used. Various procedures for estimation model parameters, properties, numerical simulations obtained estimators also investigated. Finally, as an illustration practical application presented dynamics distribution infected immunized population relation to disease COVID-19 territory Republic Serbia.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Parameters Estimation in Non-Negative Integer-Valued Time Series: Approach Based on Probability Generating Functions DOI Creative Commons
Vladica Stojanović, Еуген Љајко, Marina Tošić

et al.

Axioms, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(2), P. 112 - 112

Published: Jan. 21, 2023

This manuscript deals with a parameter estimation of non-negative integer-valued (NNIV) time series based on the so-called probability generating function (PGF) method. The theoretical background PGF technique for very general, stationary class NNIV is described, as well asymptotic properties obtained estimates. After that, particular emphasis given to estimators independent identical distributed (IID) and autoregressive (INAR) series. A Monte Carlo study thus estimates, numerical integration appropriate objective function, also presented. For this purpose, quadrature formulas were computed using Gegenbauer orthogonal polynomials. Finally, application in dynamic analysis some actual data given.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Retrospective analysis and forecasting of the spread of viruses in real time: the case of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg and Moscow in 2020–2021 DOI Creative Commons
Victor Zakharov, Yu. Е. Balykina

Problems of Virology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 69(6), P. 500 - 508

Published: Dec. 15, 2024

The aim of the study is to apply mathematical methods generate forecasts dynamics random values percentage increase in total number infected people and recovered deceased patients. obtained are used for retrospective forecasting COVID-19 epidemic process St. Petersburg Moscow. Materials methods. When conducting a analysis cases patients who have either died or recovered, increases these indicators were used. Retrospective carried out over 14-day time intervals, starting from March 25, 2020 January 20, 2021, using series method proposed by authors. Results discussion. two-week active presented paper demonstrated high accuracy performance, both Moscow Petersburg. MAPE (mean absolute error) at peaks incidence, generally, did not exceed 1%. It shown that Petersburg, built May 2020, has increased significantly compared April forecasts. A similar conclusion can be made regarding 2020.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Education and Mathematics Models (A Case Study of Epidemiology of Virus Spread) DOI Creative Commons

Andreas Perdamenta Peranginangin

Bulletin of Science Education, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 3(3), P. 330 - 330

Published: Dec. 29, 2023

Viruses are the cause of diseases that affect human body and can lead to pandemics epidemics in various countries. No new content has been added beyond original text. The language used is clear, objective, value-neutral, with a formal register precise word choice. text adheres conventional structure format, consistent citation footnote style. free from grammatical errors, spelling mistakes, punctuation errors. purpose this research determine SIS model for spread viral diseases, such as Covid-19 bird flu, their resolution behavior. formed by creating flow diagram disease using (Susceptible, Infected, Susceptible) model. sentences paragraphs create logical information causal connections between statements. study revealed two equilibrium points: disease-free point endemic point. To analyze stability point, linearization around was used. asymptotically stable if basic reproduction number less than one, indicating will disappear after certain period time. Numerical simulations were conducted behavior model. Keywords: Education Models, Mathematics

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Principle of Dynamic Balance of Demographic Process and the Limits of World Population Growth DOI
В. В. Захаров

Doklady Mathematics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 108(2), P. 419 - 424

Published: Oct. 1, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Data-Driven Management of Vaccination and Its Consequences DOI Creative Commons
Anastasia Levina, Igor Ilin, Nina Trifonova

et al.

Systems, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(11), P. 553 - 553

Published: Nov. 19, 2023

Vaccination is critical to preventing the spread of diseases. It stimulates immune system produce antibodies that fight specific diseases, eradicating and reducing their incidence. However, despite proven benefits, there hesitation skepticism in some areas due side effects lack knowledge. Developing a data collection processing analyze vaccination today’s world. Vaccines are necessary minimize morbidity mortality, but success depends on analyzing vaccine use efficacy. This can identify potential adverse reactions, ensuring safety building public confidence. research focuses IT support for effects. The aim this work develop an architecture model collect process health status vaccinated patients. methodology consists sources consequences vaccination. On basis knowledge, key attributes (stakeholders, information, input data, analysis processes) were analyzed using enterprise approach. As result, general was proposed.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Two Epidemic Models of Malaria and Their Practical Applications DOI
Victor Zakharov, Serigne M. Ndiaye

Doklady Mathematics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 108(S1), P. S8 - S16

Published: Dec. 1, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

0
PRINCIPLE OF DYNAMIC BALANCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESS AND THE LIMITS OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH DOI
Victor Zakharov

Доклады Российской академии наук Математика информатика процессы управления, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 513(1), P. 108 - 114

Published: Sept. 1, 2023

The article proposed a new model of the dynamics growth World population, including discrete equations percentage increases in integral volumes inflow and outflow balance equation population size. principle dynamic demographic process condition interval consistency based on this are formulated. A sample example forecasting period from 2011 to 2021 is given, demonstrating possibility building linear trends increase volume dead people, dynamically consistent with corresponding intervals statistics born children earlier periods. Based model, forecast after was built, assuming that by 2050 will reach 9.466 billion, 2062 it maximum level 9.561 which begin decline 2100 amount 8.670 billion.

Language: Английский

Citations

0