Revealing the Impact of Protected Areas on Land Cover Volatility in China DOI Creative Commons
Yajuan Wang,

Yongheng Rao,

Zhu Hong-bo

et al.

Land, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 11(8), P. 1361 - 1361

Published: Aug. 21, 2022

Protected areas are fundamental for maintaining ecosystem functions and have generally been considered to affect land use change. Here, we explored how protected affected cover volatility in China from 2011 2020 with LandTrendr using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform by comparing difference of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) unprotected areas. The results show that regions frequent mainly located eastern, central, southwestern China, indicating high NDVI loss values is spatially aggregated most cases. Considering impact areas, relatively consistent inside outside area throughout study period, showing a trend first fluctuating then rising. Approximately 22% detected occurred though average value (0.56) was greater than (0.51). Combined outliers, accompanied larger still primarily distributed years. detection gain shows (average 0.48) 0.47) almost every year, even combined also Elucidating helpful understanding changes formulate an effective policy.

Language: Английский

Exploring the response of ecosystem service value to land use changes under multiple scenarios coupling a mixed-cell cellular automata model and system dynamics model in Xi'an, China DOI Creative Commons
Ping Zhang, Liu L,

Lianwei Yang

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 147, P. 110009 - 110009

Published: Feb. 14, 2023

Land use is a crucial factor affecting ecosystem service value (ESV), and forecasting future land changes ESV response can guide urban planning sustainable development decisions. However, the traditional Cellular Automata (CA) model supposes that each cell has only one type at time step, neglects mixed structure proportional distribution of units, does not take into account its quantitative continuous dynamic change, lacks exploration quantity spatial pattern optimization. This study employed novel mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA) approach, coupled with system dynamics (SD) to predict spatiotemporal under natural increase scenario (NIS), economic (EDS) ecological protection (EPS) in Xi’an, China, 2030. The equivalent coefficient method was utilized investigate heterogeneity sensitivity ESV. results demonstrated SD-MCCA exhibited remarkable prediction accuracy robustness. main 2000–2015 were due expansion, conversion arable construction land, between grassland land. total increased from 19554.36×106 CNY 2000 19618.39×106 EPS 2030, contribution climate regulation hydrological highest. Spatial revealed certain regularity, high region chiefly concentrated woodland favorable conditions. variations NIS improved ESV, while had negative transformations EDS. research provides new way identify relationship utilization scenarios which great significance for management resources formulation compensation standards.

Language: Английский

Citations

76
Simulation of future land use/cover change (LUCC) in typical watersheds of arid regions under multiple scenarios DOI
Qingzheng Wang, Qingyu Guan,

Yunfan Sun

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 335, P. 117543 - 117543

Published: Feb. 26, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

71
Exploring future ecosystem service changes and key contributing factors from a “past-future-action” perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin DOI
Kaili Zhang, Bin Fang, Zhicheng Zhang

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 926, P. 171630 - 171630

Published: March 19, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

29
Spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands and their future multi-scenario simulation in the Yellow River Delta, China DOI
Bowei Yu,

Yongge Zang,

Chunsheng Wu

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 353, P. 120193 - 120193

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

23
Simulation and attribution analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Hainan Island from 2015 to 2050 DOI Creative Commons
Wenyin Wu,

Zanhui Huang,

Zhongyi Sun

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 917, P. 170348 - 170348

Published: Jan. 26, 2024

Terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) could significantly affect the concentration of atmospheric CO2, which is critical for climate change prediction. Along these lines, Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model was employed to determine TECS Hainan Island (HN) from 2015 2050 accurately. Besides, Future Land-use Simulation combined with natural anthropogenic factors used forecast land-use types 2025 in HN by considering different Shared-socioeconomic pathway-Rrepresentative pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Finally, geographical detector explored influence mechanism concerning TECS. Under SSP1-RCP1.9 scenario, will be gradually increased 388.10 million tons 2050, mainly due increase forest areas fact that majority grassland western part being converted into forest. SSP-RCP scenarios except SSP1-RCP1.9, HN's expected decrease loss coastal low-altitude areas. From single/pair factor perspective influenced TECS, elevation (DEM) DEM∩Slope were found dominant under SSP1-RCP2.6 SSP2-RCP4.5 The least distance residential area (LDP) LDP∩LDR (i.e. LDP roads or railways) SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP4-RCP3.4, SSP4-RCP6.0, SSP5-RCP3.4 SSP5-RCP8.5 pair provided a higher determinant power than single factor. Given results scenarios, we suggest reasonably planning transportation network limiting disorderly expansion construction land.

Language: Английский

Citations

19
Assessing the impact of land use and cover change on above-ground carbon storage in subtropical forests: a case study of Zhejiang Province, China DOI Creative Commons
Zihao Huang, Huaqiang Du, Fangjie Mao

et al.

Geo-spatial Information Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 1 - 27

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) has emerged as a primary driver of terrestrial carbon storage changes. However, the contributions LUCC to Above-Ground Carbon (AGC) in subtropical forests remain unclear due complex diverse trajectory. Quantitative assessment impact different trajectories on is essential for regional cycle mechanisms. Therefore, this study focuses Zhejiang Province, representative forest region China, accurately assess contribution AGC changes from 1984 2019. We first mapped land cover patterns using random spatiotemporal filtering algorithm then applied these drive an optimized BIOME-BGC model simulate distribution density. Finally, were classified into three categories: afforestation, deforestation, type transformations. Their isolated analyzed through trajectory analysis. The results demonstrated that area Province increased 5.35 × 106 ha 6.83 (+27.66%) total 80.52 Tg C 124.16 (+54.19%) between increase amounted 31.26 C, contributing 71.63% total. Specifically, transformations contributed 82.37%, −17.27%, 6.53% change AGC, respectively. Overall, afforestation within was factor growth This obtained accurate data, clarifying providing better understanding responses dynamics.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Analysis and prediction of the impact of land use/cover change on ecosystem services value in Gansu province, China DOI Creative Commons
Zhenliang Yin, Qi Feng,

Rui Zhu

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 154, P. 110868 - 110868

Published: Aug. 30, 2023

The effects of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the spatial distribution and ecosystem service value (ESV) are still ambiguous, cannot effectively guide formulation use (LU) management policies based concept harmonious development. Therefore, LUCC data from 1980 to 2020, this study adopted MCE-CA-Markov model simulate predict under Business As Usual (BAU) Ecological Development Priority (EDP) scenarios in 2030 2050. historical future ESVs as well ESV were calculated Gansu province, Northwest China. results showed that LU province changed greatly between with an increase Forest (568.62 km2), medium- high-coverage grassland (1517.58 Construction (2264.58 a decrease Farmland (-730.17 km2) Unused (-2858.58 resulting 8.162 billion CNY total ESV. From 2020 2050, EDP scenario will be more conducive ESV, increment (52.765 CNY) being much higher than BAU (3.885 CNY). growth mainly result expansion Forest, Water, Grassland, accounting for 55.4%, 48.6%, 19.1% increment, respectively, while attributed changes land, −16.2% −10.8% respectively. have certain reference structure optimization ecological benefit northwest

Language: Английский

Citations

28
Coupled effects of land use and climate change on water supply in SSP–RCP scenarios: A case study of the Ganjiang River Basin, China DOI Creative Commons
Jia Tang, Peihao Song, Xijun Hu

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 154, P. 110745 - 110745

Published: Aug. 1, 2023

Coupling land use and climate change under shared socioeconomic pathway representative concentration (SSP–RCP) scenarios can provide more accurate predictions of water supply risks, thereby supporting decision-making for spatial planning with a focus on adaptation. Climate exhibits temporal differences. To meet the requirements planning, further research is needed to assess risks at different basin or regional scales. In this study, we selected four SSP–RCP analysis, considering scale planning. The modeling capabilities five global models (GCMs) multi-model ensemble (MME) were evaluated using Taylor diagram, which assesses performance element simulations. framework that consisted system dynamics (SD), patch-generating land-use simulations (PLUS), Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed analyze synergistic changes in climate, use, supply. Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) serves as case study climate-adaptive scale, given its characteristics high agricultural demand vulnerability droughts floods. aims support such our projections, precipitation GRB showed slightly increasing trend from 2021 2050. Monthly increases during flood season August decreases dry October December. maximum minimum temperatures an both yearly monthly scales, higher fall winter. During phase, quantities SSP126 SSP245 similar variations. SSP370 experienced most significant reduction farmland, while SSP585 displayed scattered punctuated layout construction land. annual decreasing 2035 2036–2050, largest found SSP370. variation complex. There consistent season, whereas Seasonal variations are major security concern basin's future. It necessary strengthen northern region enhance ability adapt

Language: Английский

Citations

22
Dynamic simulation and projection of land use change using system dynamics model in the Chinese Tianshan mountainous region, central Asia DOI
Zhengrong Zhang, Xuemei Li, Xinyu Liu

et al.

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 487, P. 110564 - 110564

Published: Nov. 11, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

17
Dynamic Estimation of Mangrove Carbon Storage in Hainan Island Based on the InVEST-PLUS Model DOI Open Access
Xian Shi, Lan Wu,

Yinqi Zheng

et al.

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 750 - 750

Published: April 25, 2024

Mangrove ecosystems are pivotal to the global carbon budget. However, there is still a dearth of research addressing impact regional mangrove land use and cover change (LUCC) on sequestration its associated spatial distribution patterns. To investigate different development scenarios storage capacity ecosystems, we focused Hainan Island. We used LUCC data from 2010 2020 mangrove-inhabited regions. The Markov-PLUS model was applied predict spatiotemporal dynamics coverage under natural increase scenario (NIS) protection (MPS) over next 40 years. Carbon estimated using InVEST based field-measured density data. outcomes show following: (1) model, with an overall accuracy 0.88 Kappa coefficient 0.82, suitable for predicting patterns (2) Environmental factors were main drivers historical changes Island, explaining 54% variance, elevation, temperature, precipitation each contributing 13%. (3) From 2025 2065, area Island projected by approximately 12,505.68 ha, mainly through conversions forest (12.73% NIS 12.37% MPS) agricultural (39.72% 34.53% MPS). (4) increment within Island’s mangroves at 2.71 TgC whole island, notable increases expected in eastern, northern, northwestern regions, modest gains other areas. In this study, comprehensively investigated future trends offering invaluable guidance long-term management realization neutrality goals 2060.

Language: Английский

Citations

7