Assessment of Observed and Projected Extreme Droughts in Perú—Case Study: Candarave, Tacna DOI Creative Commons
Ana Cruz-Baltuano,

Raúl Huarahuara-Toma,

Arlette Silva-Borda

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(1), P. 18 - 18

Published: Dec. 27, 2024

Droughts have always been one of the most dangerous hazards for civilizations, especially when they impact headwaters a watershed, as their effects can spread downstream. In this context, observed droughts (1981–2015) and projected (2016–2100) were assessed in Candarave, Locumba basin. Regarding droughts, SPI-3 SPEI-3 detected seven extreme (1983, 1992, 1996, 1998, 2010, 2011, 2012), with intense occurring 1992 1998. SPI-6 SPEI-6 identified same drought events, highlighting intense. Additionally, it was concluded that VCI also by SPEI; however, more detailed analysis its use is necessary due to limited availability suitable satellite images area. On other hand, high-resolution dataset climate models from sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under SSP3-7.0 scenario used project future droughts. Of dataset, CanESM5, IPSL–CM6A–LR, UKESM1–0–LL did not perform well study SPI SPEI than ten episodes drought, indicating will become frequent, severe, last 30 years century.

Language: Английский

Increased population exposures to extreme precipitation in Central Asia under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Wei Wei, Shan Zou, Weili Duan

et al.

Geography and sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(3), P. 343 - 356

Published: Feb. 26, 2024

The increase in extreme precipitation (EP) may pose a serious threat to the health and safety of population arid semi-arid regions. current research on impact EP Central Asia (CA) is insufficient there an urgent need for comprehensive assessment. Hence, we opted temperature data under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5) from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs), which were obtained NASA Earth Exchange Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). Simultaneously, integrating 2020 2050 (SSP2 SSP5), investigated future changes exposure CA 1.5°C 2°C global warming scenarios (GWSs). Our analysis indicates that projected with warming. Under SSP5-8.5, maximum daily (Rx1day) exhibits average response rate 3.58 %/K (1.99 – 4.06 %/K). With rising temperatures, increasing number areas populations will be impacted by EP, especially Fergana valley. Approximately 25% (land area) exposed Rx1day increases more than 8.31% (9.32%) GWS 14.18% (13.25%) GWS. Controlling rise can effective reducing exposures EP. For instance, limiting instead results 2.79% (1.75%–4.59%) reduction Rx1day. Finally, found climate change serves as predominant factor influencing while role redistribution, although relatively minor, should not disregarded. Particularly prolonged drought, redistribution manifests negatively.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Obtaining refined Euro-Mediterranean rainfall projections through regional assessment of CMIP6 General Circulation Models DOI
Giovanni-Breogán Ferreiro-Lera, Ángel Penas, Sara del Río

et al.

Global and Planetary Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 104725 - 104725

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Evaluating future climate-driven changes in agricultural water resilience: Insights from CMIP6 model simulations for the Kagera River sub-basin DOI
Nickson Tibangayuka, Deogratias M. M. Mulungu, Fides Izdori

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 378, P. 124745 - 124745

Published: March 3, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Rainfall Erosivity Characteristics during 1961–2100 in the Loess Plateau, China DOI Creative Commons
Xiuping Li,

Peiqing Xiao,

Shilong Hao

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 661 - 661

Published: Feb. 12, 2024

Rainfall erosivity, which signifies the inherent susceptibility of soil erosion induced by precipitation, plays a fundamental role in formulating comprehensive loss equation (RUSLE). It stands as crucial determinant among foundational factors considered equation’s establishment. Nonetheless, prediction and quantification future alterations rainfall erosivity under influence global warming have been relatively limited. In this study, climate change was widely evaluated 10 preferred models Loess Plateau were selected using data sets 27 simulating CN05.1 set provided latest CMIP6. The monthly precipitation forecast obtained delta downscaling method. Combined with trend analysis, significance test, coefficient variation, annual during 1961–2100 four SSP scenarios analyzed predicted. Among GCM used paper, most suitable for CMCC-CM2-SR5, CMCC-ESM2, TaiESM1, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth-Veg-LR, INM-CM4-8, CAS-ESM2-0, EC-Earth-Veg, ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR. comparison to base period (1961–1990), historical (1961–2014), average on amounted 1259.64 MJ·mm·hm−2·h−1·a−1, showing an insignificant downward trend. northwest Ningxia, Yulin City Yanan showed significant upward (2015–2100), continues constantly increase. potential increase is about 13.48–25.86%. terms spatial distribution, areas increasing these regions, majority encompassed within Shanxi Province, central Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia increased greatly, not conducive water conservation ecological environment construction. This study offers scientific reference projected characteristics Plateau.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Evaluation and projection of changes in temperature and precipitation over Northwest China based on CMIP6 models DOI
Xuanyu Song,

Min Xu,

Shichang Kang

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 44(14), P. 5039 - 5056

Published: Oct. 8, 2024

Abstract Northwest China is much more sensitive to climate warming, and the has varied rapidly from warm drought humid conditions. In addition, due complex terrain of China, methods parameterization schemes different CMIP6 models, these models are mostly applied arid areas in or Central Asia, lacking data for plateau eastern Lanzhou, specifically filtering evaluating applicable models. this paper, 34 used evaluate forecast future trends under SSP126, SSP245 SSP585 scenarios short, medium long term. temperature precipitation identified by applying interannual variability skill score (IVS) between CN05.1 datasets historical which suitable China. Then, we assess characteristics, warming wetting deviations, uncertainties prediction climatic change according over The results show that AWI‐CM‐1‐1‐MR, BCC‐CSM2‐MR, FGOALS‐g3, INM‐CM4‐8, INM‐CM5‐0 MRI‐ESM2‐0. multi‐model ensemble mean (MMEM) better capability than individual prediction. Spatiotemporal shows overall trends. IVS provides ability estimate model simulation performance both temporally spatially. quite good Tarim Basin Hexi Corridor region, Altai Mountains, Tianshan Mountains region. Cold wet deviations occur topography few stations, common reasons. main sources during century uncertainty (before 2090s) scenario (after 2090s), becomes source uncertainty.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and Global Climate Models (CMIP6) to Predict Potential Soil Erosion Associated with Climate Change in the Talas District, Kazakhstan DOI Open Access
Moldir Rakhimova, Kanat Zulpykharov, Aizhan Assylbekova

et al.

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 574 - 574

Published: Jan. 9, 2024

Changes in precipitation patterns, a fundamental aspect of climate change, can significantly impact soil erosion processes. This article aims to evaluate the current state Talas area utilizing Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Climate projections for study were obtained through CMIP6 Global Model (GCM) and climatic data integrated into RUSLE simulate potential changes patterns. The mean annual rate, observed over research duration, ranges from 0 127 (t y−1). Results indicate that 56.29% is characterized by low susceptibility erosion, with an additional 33.56% classified as at moderate risk 7.36% deemed high erosion. Furthermore, evaluation reveals average increase levels compared baseline. Models project rise 21.4%, 24.2%, 26.4% years 2030, 2050, 2070, respectively. Concurrently, observes parallel loss precipitation, demonstrating 34%, 35.5%, 38.9% corresponding time periods. Also, spatially distributed results show southern part territory region has been impacted past will also be future period. These findings underscore intricate interplay between climate-induced their significant on provide essential insights developing targeted conservation strategies under evolving conditions.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains DOI
Xinyu Liu, Xuemei Li, Zhengrong Zhang

et al.

Journal of Arid Land, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 195 - 219

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

4
A novel self-adjusting weight approximation procedure to minimize non-identical seasonal effects in multimodel ensemble for accurate twenty-first century drought assessment DOI

Rubina Naz,

Zulfiqar Ali

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 38(6), P. 2451 - 2472

Published: March 7, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Multi criteria evaluation of downscaled CMIP6 models in predicting precipitation extremes DOI
Rishi Gupta, Prem Prakash, Vinay Chembolu

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 315, P. 107921 - 107921

Published: Jan. 11, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Investigating the Future Precipitation Changes Over the Kingdom of Bahrain Using CMIP6 Projections DOI Creative Commons

J. Drisya,

Waleed Al-Zubari

Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 5, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0