Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Litsea cubeba in China based on future climate change using the optimized MaxEnt model

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 148, P. 110093 - 110093

Published: March 7, 2023

Litsea cubeba is an important woody oil plant. The essential oils (EOs) can be extracted from its flowers, leaves and peels and, by volume, it the most exported natural EOs China. Thus, L. has economic medicinal value. Although there demand for rapid expansion of production, been a sharp reduction in resources. Therefore, determining potentially suitable area expanding cultivation will help meet growing volatile oil. Based on 453 distribution records China 16 major environmental factors, we simulated pattern under three different climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP370 SSP585) time periods: current period, 2050 s, 2070 s. analysis was implemented using MaxEnt model, optimized ENMeval package. jackknife test, percent contribution response curve were used to determine factors intervals affecting cubeba. We found that parameter settings optimal model RM = 2.5 FC LQH. results exhibited high prediction accuracy low degree overfitting. Precipitation driest quarter, annual precipitation, temperature range minimum coldest month dominant cubeba, their thresholds ≥ 36.21 mm, ≥905.95 ≤32.44 °C -3.73 °C, respectively. showed total 208.19 × 104 km2 conditions. predicted mainly concentrated 19 provinces cities Yangtze River Basin southern area. Under future conditions, increased with time, centroid each grade moved northward. this study guide selection introductions, as well development, artificial resource conservation

Language: Английский

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Shedding light on the effects of climate and anthropogenic pressures on the disappearance of Fagus sylvatica in the Italian lowlands: evidence from archaeo-anthracology and spatial analyses

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 877, P. 162893 - 162893

Published: March 17, 2023

Language: Английский

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Generalists yet different: distributional responses to climate change may vary in opportunistic bat species sharing similar ecological traits

Mammal Review, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 51(4), P. 571 - 584

Published: March 18, 2021

Abstract Climate change is among the key anthropogenic factors affecting species’ distribution, with important consequences for conservation. However, little known concerning of distributional changes on community‐level interactions, and responses by generalist species might have many ecological implications in terms novel interactions resident species. In this study, we applied Ecological Niche Models niche analysis to three bat species, Hypsugo savii , Pipistrellus kuhlii, pipistrellus which share similar traits are sympatric parts their ranges. Our aims were investigate how predicted climate will affect distribution analyse degree climatic overlap between both current future scenarios (2050 2070; Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 8.5). Temperatures most predictors influencing range expansion future. According our models, kuhlii may expand geographic ranges towards northern latitudes, whereas less thermophilous shift northwards, resulting it losing southern portion Europe. The already considerable increase further On basis findings, within new areas potentially colonised all future, alterations balance occur, bringing about effects that only partially predictable. view this, highlight need research improved monitoring communities be particularly vulnerable change.

Language: Английский

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Mapping habitat suitability for Asiatic black bear and red panda in Makalu Barun National Park of Nepal from Maxent and GARP models

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: July 8, 2021

Habitat evaluation is essential for managing wildlife populations and formulating conservation policies. With the rise of innovative powerful statistical techniques in partnership with Remote Sensing, GIS GPS techniques, spatially explicit species distribution modeling (SDM) has rapidly grown biology. These models can help us to study habitat suitability at scale range, are particularly useful examining overlapping between sympatric species. Species presence points collected through field observations, conjunction 13 different topographic, vegetation related, anthropogenic, bioclimatic variables, as well a land cover map seven classification categories created by support vector machine (SVM) were used implement Maxent GARP ecological niche models. resulting models, suitable asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) red panda (Ailurus fulgens) Nepal Makalu Barun National Park (MBNP) was predicted. All predictor variables extracted from freely available remote sensing publicly shared government data resources. The modeled results validated using an independent dataset. Analysis regularized training gain showed that three most important environmental distance settlement, elevation, mean annual temperature. accuracy, characterized area under curve, moderate both when (0.791 0.786 panda), but (0.857), high (0.920) used. estimated 716 km2 343 respectively, while determined 1074 714 respectively. predicted 83% 40% habitat, 88% 58% overlapped. exhibited barren covered highest percentage MBNP (36.0%) followed forest (32.6%). Of indicated preferred (63.7% 61.6% Maxent; 59.9% 58.8% GARP). outperformed terms modeling. higher selectivity than panda. We suggest proper management should be given habitats buffer zone. For inaccessible regions, proposed methods promising tools conservation, deserving further popularization.

Language: Английский

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MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Forests, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(6), P. 752 - 752

Published: June 7, 2021

Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. (Chinese fir) is one of the main timber species in Southern China, which has a wide planting range that accounts for 25% overall afforested area. Moreover, it plays critical role soil and water conservation; however, its suitability subject to climate change. For this study, appropriate distribution area C. was analyzed using MaxEnt model based on CMIP6 data, spanning 2041–2060. The results revealed (1) minimum temperature coldest month (bio6), mean diurnal (bio2) were most important environmental variables affected lanceolata; (2) currently suitable areas primarily distributed along southern coastal 55% moderately so, while only 18% highly suitable; (3) projected would likely expand BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, MRI-ESM2-0 under different SSPs increased estimated future ranged from 0.18 0.29 million km2, where total attained maximum value 2.50 km2 SSP3-7.0 scenario, with lowest 2.39 SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) combination land use farmland protection policies more than 60% could be utilized 2041–2060 SSP scenarios. Although change having an increasing influence distribution, deleterious impacts anthropogenic activities cannot ignored. In future, further attention should paid investigation combined human activities.

Language: Английский

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The rise and fall of an alien: why the successful colonizer Littorina saxatilis failed to invade the Mediterranean Sea

Biological Invasions, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 24(10), P. 3169 - 3187

Published: June 12, 2022

Language: Английский

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Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamous alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model

Insects, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(2), P. 182 - 182

Published: Feb. 13, 2023

M. alternatus is considered to be an important and effective insect vector for the spread of international forest quarantine pest, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The precise determination potential suitable areas essential monitor, prevent, control worldwide. According distribution points climatic variables, optimized MaxEnt model ArcGIS were used predict current future potentially parameters set as feature combination (FC) = LQHP β 1.5, which determined by values AUCdiff, OR10, ΔAICc. Bio2, Bio6, Bio10, Bio12, Bio14 dominant bioclimatic variables affecting alternatus. Under climate conditions, habitats distributed across all continents except Antarctica, accounting 4.17% Earth’s total land area. scenarios, increased significantly, spreading a global scale. results this study could provide theoretical basis risk analysis dispersal well monitoring prevention beetle.

Language: Английский

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Coastal Pine-Oak Glacial Refugia in the Mediterranean Basin: A Biogeographic Approach Based on Charcoal Analysis and Spatial Modelling

Forests, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11(6), P. 673 - 673

Published: June 12, 2020

During the glacial episodes of Quaternary, European forests were restricted to small favourable spots, namely refugia, acting as biodiversity reservoirs. Iberian, Italian and Balkan peninsulas have been considered main refugia trees in Europe. In this study, we estimate composition last forest a coastal cave Cilento area (SW Italy) seven time frames, spanning from Pleniglacial Late Glacial. Charcoal analyses performed archaeological layers. Furthermore, paleoclimate modelling (Maxent) approach was used complement taxonomic identification charcoal fragments past potential distribution tree species Our results showed that mesothermophilous survived region core Mediterranean basin during Last Glacial Period (LGP, since ~36 ka cal BP), indicating played an important role reservoir woodland biodiversity. Here, Quercus pubescens most abundant component, followed by wide variety deciduous Pinus nigra. data also pointed at crucial area, for warm temperate genera Tilia, Carpinus Sambucus, LGP, region. P. nigra might be candidate “Pinus sylvestris type” study site Maximum (LGM). found coexist with Q. several territories both currently LGM. All models high levels predictive performances. highlight advantage combining different approaches such analysis ecological niche explore biogeographic questions about current distribution, implications inform today’s management conservation.

Language: Английский

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Artificial illumination influences niche segregation in bats

Environmental Pollution, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 284, P. 117187 - 117187

Published: April 20, 2021

Language: Английский

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Multigenic resistance to Xylella fastidiosa in wild grapes (Vitis sps.) and its implications within a changing climate

Communications Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: May 30, 2023

Abstract Xylella fastidiosa is a bacterium that infects crops like grapevines, coffee, almonds, citrus and olives. There little understanding of the genes contribute to plant resistance, genomic architecture potential role climate in shaping part because major grapevines ( Vitis vinifera ) are not resistant bacterium. Here we study wild grapevine species, V. arizonica , segregates for resistance. Using genome-wide association, identify candidate resistance genes. Resistance-associated kmers shared with sister species but more distant suggesting evolved than once. Finally, dependent, individuals from low < 10 °C) temperature locations wettest quarter were typically susceptible infection, likely reflecting lack pathogen pressure colder climates. In fact, as effective predictor phenotypes some genetic markers. We extend our observations additional crops, predicting increased almonds other crops.

Language: Английский

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