Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(6611)

Published: Sept. 8, 2022

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide revised shortlist global "core" elements regional "impact" their temperature thresholds. Current ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within lower end some point uncertainty ranges. Several may be triggered Paris Agreement range 1.5 <2°C warming, with many more likely at 2 3°C expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens evidence base for urgent action mitigate develop improved risk assessment, early warning capability, adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(11), P. 972 - 980

Published: Oct. 16, 2018

Language: Английский

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Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(4), P. 325 - 332

Published: March 5, 2018

Language: Английский

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Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: April 23, 2019

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators complex physical models integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions their subsequent impacts on global economy under Paris Agreement scenarios. The feedback is increasingly positive warmer climates, while albedo weakens as snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead significant increases mean discounted economic effect change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 2 +4.8% ($66.9 mitigation levels consistent with current national pledges. Considering makes target marginally more economically attractive than target, although both are statistically equivalent.

Language: Английский

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Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 117(5), P. 2354 - 2365

Published: Jan. 21, 2020

Significance Achieving a rapid global decarbonization to stabilize the climate critically depends on activating contagious and fast-spreading processes of social technological change within next few years. Drawing expert elicitation, an workshop, review literature, which provides comprehensive analysis this topic, we propose concrete interventions induce positive tipping dynamics transformation carbon-neutral societies. These comprise removing fossil-fuel subsidies incentivizing decentralized energy generation, building cities, divesting from assets linked fossil fuels, revealing moral implications strengthening education engagement, disclosing greenhouse gas emissions information.

Language: Английский

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Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 6(9), P. 827 - 835

Published: July 25, 2016

Language: Английский

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Scientists’ warning to humanity on the freshwater biodiversity crisis

AMBIO, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 50(1), P. 85 - 94

Published: Feb. 10, 2020

Language: Английский

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Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 10(12), P. 4321 - 4345

Published: Nov. 30, 2017

Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of Parties (COP) to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited Intergovernmental Panel (IPCC) provide a special report in 2018 impacts global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse gas emission pathways. Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, IPCC panel accepted invitation. Here we describe response devised within Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections broaden scientific basis for report. The simulation protocol is designed allow (1) separation historical starting from conditions other drivers such as land-use changes (based model simulations); (2) quantification additional up °C, including potential overshoot long-term 2299, comparison higher mean temperature change low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic fixed at 2005 levels; (3) assessment climate effects based same scenarios while accounting simultaneous following middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) particular differential bioenergy requirements associated transformation energy system comply compared RCP6.0. With aim providing an aggregation across sectors analysis cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, facilitate range models different (global regional hydrology, lakes, crops, vegetation, forests, marine ecosystems fisheries, coastal infrastructure, supply demand, temperature-related mortality, terrestrial biodiversity).

Language: Английский

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Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 654, P. 811 - 821

Published: Nov. 5, 2018

Understanding the potential drought impacts on agricultural production is critical for ensuring global food security. Instead of providing a deterministic estimate, this study investigates likelihood yield loss wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts various intensities 10 largest producing countries. We use crop-country specific standardized precipitation index (SPI) census data 1961–2016 build probabilistic modeling framework estimating risk under moderate (−1.2 < SPI −0.8), severe (−1.5 −1.3), extreme (−1.9 −1.6) exceptional (SPI −2.0) drought. Results show that there >80% probability wheat will fall below its long-term average when experiencing an drought, especially USA Canada. As India shows highest reduction droughts, while crop most vulnerable Vietnam Thailand. Risk drought-driven soybean USA, Russian India. Yield tends grow faster shift severity from than category, demonstrating non-linear increase severity. Sensitivity analysis temperature plays important role determining impacts, through reducing or amplifying risk. Compared present conditions, ensemble 11 models simulated by 9%–12%, 5.6%–6.3%, 18.1%–19.4% 15.1%–16.1 end 21st century, respectively, without considering benefits CO2 fertilization adaptations. This highlights implies adaptations should be more targeted, not only type region but also interest.

Language: Английский

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Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 7(6), P. 417 - 422

Published: April 24, 2017

Language: Английский

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