Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 2295 - 2327

Published: June 6, 2023

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC), including first global stocktake Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence system. However, successive IPCC reports published intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, Earth's energy imbalance, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open data, science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8000192, Smith et al., 2023a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show human-induced reached 1.14 [0.9 1.4] ∘C averaged over 2013–2022 decade 1.26 [1.0 1.6] 2022. Over period, has been increasing unprecedented rate 0.2 per decade. This high caused a combination being all-time 54 ± 5.3 GtCO2e last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increases have slowed, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change climate.

Language: Английский

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Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(6), P. 2625 - 2658

Published: June 4, 2024

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence global system. However, successive IPCC reports published at intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used in Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open-data, open-science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show that, 2014–2023 decade average, observed was 1.19 [1.06 1.30] °C, which [1.0 1.4] °C human-induced. For single-year human-induced reached 1.31 [1.1 1.7] 2023 relative 1850–1900. best estimate below 2023-observed record 1.43 [1.32 1.53] indicating a substantial contribution internal variability record. Human-induced has been increasing rate that unprecedented instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] per over 2014–2023. This high caused combination net being persistent 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increase CO2 slowed compared 2000s, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change some presented here.

Language: Английский

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Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane's Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(8)

Published: July 15, 2023

Abstract Atmospheric methane's rapid growth from late 2006 is unprecedented in the observational record. Assessment of atmospheric methane data attributes a large fraction this to increased natural emissions over tropics, which appear be responding changes anthropogenic climate forcing. Isotopically lighter measurements are consistent with recent being mainly driven by an increase microbial sources, particularly wetlands. The global budget currently disequilibrium and new inputs as yet poorly quantified. Although agriculture waste sources have between 2022 perhaps 35 Tg/yr, wide uncertainty, approximately another 35–45 Tg/yr net may been biogenic processes, especially wetland feedbacks change. A model comparison shows that comparable or greater scale speed than isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It remains possible current within range Holocene variability, but it also indicate large‐scale reorganization biosphere under way.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes

Current Climate Change Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Oct. 2, 2024

Language: Английский

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Ocean heat content in 2023

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(4), P. 232 - 234

Published: April 4, 2024

Language: Английский

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Acceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 16, 2024

Abstract Long-term changes in ocean heat content (OHC) represent a fundamental global warming indicator and are mostly caused by anthropogenic climate-altering gas emissions. OHC increases heavily threaten the marine environment, therefore, reconstructing before well-instrumented period (i.e., Argo floats deployment mid-2000s) is crucial to understanding multi-decadal climate change ocean. Here, we shed light on its uncertainty for 1961-2022 through large ensemble reanalysis system that spans major sources of uncertainties. Results indicate 62-year 0.43 ± 0.08 W m −2 , statistically significant acceleration rate equal 0.15 0.04 dec −1 locally peaking at high latitudes. The 11.6% area reaches maximum yearly 2022, almost doubling any previous year. At regional scale, found Tropics; represents about 40% 15% variability, respectively after mid-2000s. trends affected observation calibration (especially latitudes), sea surface temperature data low latitudes).

Language: Английский

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A new look at Earth’s water and energy with SWOT

Nature Water, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 13, 2025

Language: Английский

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Community estimate of global glacier mass changes from 2000 to 2023

Nature, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 19, 2025

Abstract Glaciers are indicators of ongoing anthropogenic climate change 1 . Their melting leads to increased local geohazards 2 , and impacts marine 3 terrestrial 4,5 ecosystems, regional freshwater resources 6 both global water energy cycles 7,8 Together with the Greenland Antarctic ice sheets, glaciers essential drivers present 9,10 future 11–13 sea-level rise. Previous assessments glacier mass changes have been hampered by spatial temporal limitations heterogeneity existing data series 14–16 Here we show in an intercomparison exercise that worldwide lost 273 ± 16 gigatonnes annually from 2000 2023, increase 36 10% first (2000–2011) second (2012–2023) half period. Since 2000, between 2% 39% their regionally about 5% globally. Glacier loss is 18% larger than Ice Sheet more twice 17 Our results arise a scientific community effort collect, homogenize, combine analyse situ remote-sensing observations. Although our estimates agreement findings previous at scale, found some large deviations owing systematic differences among observation methods. provide refined baseline for better understanding observational calibrating model ensembles 12,16,18 which will help narrow projection uncertainty twenty-first century 11,12,18

Language: Английский

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Mortality impacts of the most extreme heat events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 4, 2025

Language: Английский

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Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: Nov. 1, 2023

Abstract The change in global mean surface temperature is a crucial and broadly used indicator of the evolution climate change. Any decadal scale changes warming rate are however obfuscated by internal variability. Here we show that increase through recent La Nina influenced years (2022) consistent with 50-year trend 0.18 °C/decade. We use an Earth System Model based tool to filter out modulations sea-surface patterns find rates four major data series. However, also clear indications, all observational series, step-up since around 1990. CMIP6 models generally do not capture this observed combination long-term increase.

Language: Английский

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