Healthcare,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
11(2), С. 260 - 260
Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2023
In
2020,
coronavirus
(COVID-19)
was
declared
a
global
pandemic
and
it
remains
prevalent
today.
A
necessity
to
model
the
transmission
of
virus
has
emerged
as
result
COVID-19’s
exceedingly
contagious
characteristics
its
rapid
propagation
throughout
world.
Assessing
incidence
infection
could
enable
policymakers
identify
measures
halt
gauge
required
capacity
healthcare
centers.
Therefore,
modeling
susceptibility,
exposure,
infection,
recovery
in
relation
COVID-19
is
crucial
for
adoption
interventions
by
regulatory
authorities.
Fundamental
factors,
such
rate,
mortality
must
be
considered
order
accurately
represent
behavior
using
mathematical
models.
The
difficulty
creating
identifying
real
variables.
Parameters
might
vary
significantly
across
models,
which
can
variations
simulation
results
because
projections
primarily
rely
on
particular
dataset.
purpose
this
work
establish
susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered
(SEIR)
describing
outbreak
Kingdom
Saudi
Arabia
(KSA).
goal
study
derive
essential
epidemiological
factors
from
actual
data.
System
dynamics
design
experiment
approaches
were
used
determine
most
appropriate
combination
parameters
influence
COVID-19.
This
investigates
how
variables
seasonal
amplitude,
social
awareness
impact,
waning
time
adapted
correctly
estimate
scenarios
number
infected
persons
daily
basis
KSA.
also
utilized
ascertain
stress
(or
hospital
capacity)
affects
percentage
hospitalizations
deaths.
Additionally,
policies
or
strategies
monitoring
restricting
Arabia.
The Lancet Regional Health - Americas,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
28, С. 100639 - 100639
Опубликована: Ноя. 24, 2023
Tracking
infectious
diseases
at
the
community
level
is
challenging
due
to
asymptomatic
infections
and
logistical
complexities
of
mass
surveillance.
Wastewater
surveillance
has
emerged
as
a
valuable
tool
for
monitoring
disease
agents
including
SARS-CoV-2
Mpox
virus.
However,
detecting
virus
in
wastewater
particularly
its
relatively
low
prevalence
community.
In
this
study,
we
aim
characterize
three
molecular
assays
tracking
from
El
Paso,
Texas,
during
February
March
2023.
Frontiers in Chemical Engineering,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
4
Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2023
Domestic
wastewater,
when
collected
and
evaluated
appropriately,
can
provide
valuable
health-related
information
for
a
community.
As
relatively
unbiased
non-invasive
approach,
wastewater
surveillance
may
complement
current
practices
towards
mitigating
risks
protecting
population
health.
Spurred
by
the
COVID-19
pandemic,
programs
are
now
widely
implemented
to
monitor
viral
infection
trends
in
sewersheds
inform
public
health
decision-making.
This
review
summarizes
recent
developments
wastewater-based
epidemiology
detecting
monitoring
communicable
infectious
diseases,
dissemination
of
antimicrobial
resistance,
illicit
drug
consumption.
Wastewater
surveillance,
quickly
advancing
Frontier
environmental
science,
is
becoming
new
tool
enhance
health,
improve
disease
prevention,
respond
future
epidemics
pandemics.
Journal of Mathematical Biology,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
86(5)
Опубликована: Март 29, 2023
Abstract
We
consider
the
dynamics
of
a
virus
spreading
through
population
that
produces
mutant
strain
with
ability
to
infect
individuals
were
infected
established
strain.
Temporary
cross-immunity
is
included
using
time
delay,
but
found
be
harmless
delay.
provide
some
sufficient
conditions
guarantee
local
and
global
asymptotic
stability
disease-free
equilibrium
two
boundary
equilibria
when
strains
outcompete
one
another.
It
shown
that,
due
immune
evasion
emerging
strain,
reproduction
number
must
significantly
lower
than
for
established-strain-only
equilibrium.
To
analyze
unique
coexistence
we
apply
quasi
steady-state
argument
reduce
full
model
two-dimensional
exhibits
asymptotically
stable
or
Our
results
indicate
basic
numbers
both
govern
overall
dynamics,
in
nontrivial
ways
inclusion
cross-immunity.
The
applied
study
emergence
SARS-CoV-2
Delta
variant
presence
Alpha
wastewater
surveillance
data
from
Deer
Island
Treatment
Plant
Massachusetts,
USA.
Background
Wastewater
surveillance
has
expanded
globally
as
a
means
to
monitor
spread
of
infectious
diseases.
An
inherent
challenge
is
substantial
noise
and
bias
in
wastewater
data
because
the
sampling
quantification
process,
limiting
applicability
monitoring
tool.
Aim
To
present
an
analytical
framework
for
capturing
growth
trend
circulating
infections
from
conducting
scenario
analyses
guide
policy
decisions.
Methods
We
developed
mathematical
model
translating
observed
SARS-CoV-2
viral
load
into
effective
reproduction
numbers.
used
extended
Kalman
filter
infer
underlying
transmissions
by
smoothing
out
observational
noise.
also
illustrated
impact
different
countermeasures
such
vaccinations
non-pharmaceutical
interventions
on
projected
number
cases
using
three
study
areas
Japan
during
2021–22
example.
Results
Observed
notified
were
matched
with
range
estimated
our
approach
only,
across
virus
methods,
especially
when
disease
prevalence
was
high.
Estimated
numbers
derived
consistent
notification-based
Our
projections
showed
that
10–20%
increase
vaccination
coverage
or
10%
reduction
contact
rate
may
suffice
initiate
declining
areas.
Conclusion
demonstrates
how
can
be
track
perform
modelling
inform
The
proposed
complements
conventional
clinical
surveillance,
reliable
timely
epidemiological
are
not
available.
Life,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
13(2), С. 410 - 410
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2023
Mathematical
models
are
a
core
component
in
the
foundation
of
cancer
theory
and
have
been
developed
as
clinical
tools
precision
medicine.
Modeling
studies
for
applications
often
assume
an
individual's
characteristics
can
be
represented
parameters
model
used
to
explain,
predict,
optimize
treatment
outcomes.
However,
this
approach
relies
on
identifiability
underlying
mathematical
models.
In
study,
we
build
framework
observing-system
simulation
experiment
study
several
growth,
focusing
prognostic
each
model.
Our
results
demonstrate
that
frequency
data
collection,
types
data,
such
proxy,
accuracy
measurements
all
play
crucial
roles
determining
We
also
found
highly
accurate
allow
reasonably
estimates
some
parameters,
which
may
key
achieving
practice.
As
more
complex
required
identification,
our
support
idea
using
with
clear
mechanism
tracks
disease
progression
settings.
For
model,
subset
associated
naturally
minimizes
identifiability.
Water Research,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
242, С. 120223 - 120223
Опубликована: Июнь 15, 2023
Here
we
analyze
SARS-CoV-2
genome
copies
in
Catalonia's
wastewater
during
the
Omicron
peak
and
develop
a
mathematical
model
to
estimate
number
of
infections
temporal
relationship
between
reported
unreported
cases.
1-liter
samples
from
16
treatment
plants
were
collected
used
compartmental
epidemiological
model.
The
average
correlation
cases
was
0.85,
with
an
delay
8.8
days.
estimated
that
53%
population
infected,
compared
19%
under-reporting
highest
November
December
2021.
maximum
shed
feces
by
infected
individual
range
1.4×108
gc/g
4.4×108
gc/g.
Our
framework
demonstrates
potential
data
as
leading
indicator
for
daily
new
infections,
particularly
contexts
low
detection
rates.
It
also
serves
complementary
tool
prevalence
estimation
offers
general
approach
integrating
into
models.
