The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 48 - 52

Published: Dec. 5, 2016

Language: Английский

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Global-scale evaluation of 22 precipitation datasets using gauge observations and hydrological modeling

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 21(12), P. 6201 - 6217

Published: Dec. 8, 2017

Abstract. We undertook a comprehensive evaluation of 22 gridded (quasi-)global (sub-)daily precipitation (P) datasets for the period 2000–2016. Thirteen non-gauge-corrected P were evaluated using daily gauge observations from 76 086 gauges worldwide. Another nine gauge-corrected hydrological modeling, by calibrating HBV conceptual model against streamflow records each 9053 small to medium-sized ( < 50 000 km2) catchments worldwide, and comparing resulting performance. Marked differences in spatio-temporal patterns accuracy found among datasets. Among uncorrected datasets, satellite- reanalysis-based MSWEP-ng V1.2 V2.0 generally showed best temporal correlations with observations, followed reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR) CHIRP dataset, estimates based primarily on passive microwave remote sensing rainfall (CMORPH V1.0, GSMaP V5/6, TMPA 3B42RT V7) or near-surface soil moisture (SM2RAIN-ASCAT), finally, thermal infrared imagery (GridSat PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CCS). Two three (ERA-Interim JRA-55) unexpectedly obtained lower trend errors than satellite corrected ones directly incorporating data (CPC Unified, MSWEP V2.0) provided calibration scores, although good performance fully gauge-based CPC Unified is unlikely translate sparsely ungauged regions. Next results temporally coarser (CHIRPS V2.0, GPCP-1DD V1.2, 3B42 V7, WFDEI-CRU), which turn outperformed one indirectly through another multi-source dataset (PERSIANN-CDR V1R1). Our highlight large estimation accuracy, hence importance selection both research operational applications. The emphasizes that careful merging can exploit complementary strengths gauge-, satellite-, estimates.

Language: Английский

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Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 48(1), P. 519 - 548

Published: Feb. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Language: Английский

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Thirty Years of Regional Climate Modeling: Where Are We and Where Are We Going next?

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 124(11), P. 5696 - 5723

Published: May 17, 2019

The year 2019 marks the thirtieth anniversary of development first regional climate model (RCM), and here an overview is provided progress in modeling research main challenges lying ahead. RCMs were primarily developed to provide fine-scale information for impact studies, but they have evolved into general multipurpose tools. Among achievements RCM focus on: community applicable a wide variety studies contexts; increase simulation length up centennial scales spatial resolutions convection-permitting (few kilometers), leading better understanding local change signals; fully coupled Regional Earth System Models; inception intercomparison projects culminating international Coordinated Climate Downscaling Experiment; extensive use simulations assessments; involvement scientific from developing countries research. outstanding issues need more attention are Added Value using this downscaling technique; various technical aspects concerning simulations; uncertainties RCM-based projections. Future directions discussed, with highlight transition systems; further Models including human component; next phase Experiment project; distillation actionable contribution service activities. A brief historical also presented.

Language: Английский

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Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 986 - 991

Published: Oct. 26, 2016

Language: Английский

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Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 49(1-2), P. 71 - 95

Published: Aug. 29, 2016

Language: Английский

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Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 7(11), P. 764 - 773

Published: Nov. 1, 2017

Language: Английский

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Daily evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets using Stage-IV gauge-radar data for the CONUS

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 23(1), P. 207 - 224

Published: Jan. 16, 2019

Abstract. New precipitation (P) datasets are released regularly, following innovations in weather forecasting models, satellite retrieval methods, and multi-source merging techniques. Using the conterminous US as a case study, we evaluated performance of 26 gridded (sub-)daily P to obtain insight into merit these innovations. The evaluation was performed at daily timescale for period 2008–2017 using Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), metric combining correlation, bias, variability. As reference, used high-resolution (4 km) Stage-IV gauge-radar dataset. Among three KGE components, worst overall terms correlation (related event identification). In improving scores datasets, improved totals (affecting bias score) distribution intensity variability secondary importance. 11 gauge-corrected best obtained by MSWEP V2.2, underscoring importance applying gauge corrections accounting reporting times. Several uncorrected outperformed ones. 15 ERA5-HRES fourth-generation reanalysis, reflecting significant advances earth system modeling during last decade. (re)analyses generally better winter than summer, while opposite satellite-based datasets. IMERGHH V05 substantially TMPA-3B42RT V7, attributable many improvements implemented IMERG algorithm. regions dominated convective storms, observed complex terrain. ERA5-EDA ensemble average exhibited higher correlations deterministic run, highlighting value modeling. WRF regional convection-permitting climate model showed considerably more accurate over mountainous west among variability, suggesting there is models climatological statistics. Our findings provide some guidance choose most suitable dataset particular application.

Language: Английский

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Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(8)

Published: May 11, 2020

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles is a key linkage among various components of Earth's atmospheric water energy cycles. The representation microphysical in models continues pose major challenge leading uncertainty numerical weather forecasts climate simulations. this paper, problem treating divided into two parts: (i) how represent population particles, given impossibility simulating all individually within cloud, (ii) uncertainties process rates owing fundamental gaps knowledge physics. recently developed Lagrangian particle-based method advocated as way address several conceptual practical challenges representing particle populations using traditional bulk bin parameterization schemes. For addressing critical physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, next-generation instruments space needed. Greater emphasis on work, which has apparently declined over past decades relative other areas research, argued be an essential ingredient improving process-level understanding. More systematic use natural observations constrain schemes also advocated. Because it generally difficult quantify individual these directly, presents inverse can viewed standpoint Bayesian statistics. Following idea, probabilistic framework proposed combines elements statistical physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint schemes, there added benefit quantifying systematically. Finally, broader hierarchical approach accelerate improvements leveraging described paper related modeling (using schemes), experimentation, observations, methods.

Language: Английский

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Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

Regional Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 20(2)

Published: April 23, 2020

Abstract The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares broader goals providing model evaluation projection framework improving communication with both General Circulation Model (GCM) data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees design coordination ongoing ensembles projections unprecedented size resolution (0.11° EUR-11 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, inclusion empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide foundation for scientific studies within research community others. value ensemble shown via numerous peer-reviewed its use development services. Evaluations also show benefits higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further understanding, two flagship pilot (FPS) were initiated. first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe Mediterranean collaboration Med-CORDEX community. second impacts land cover changes on across spatial temporal scales. Over coming years, looks forward closer other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as IPCC reports, continuing basis adaptation

Language: Английский

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