Maritime transportation and people mobility in the early diffusion of COVID-19 in Croatia DOI Creative Commons
Corentin Cot, Dea Aksentijević, Alen Jugović

et al.

Frontiers in Public Health, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: Aug. 17, 2023

Introduction The outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe began early 2020, leading to the emergence several waves infection with varying timings across European countries. largest wave occurred August-September. Croatia, known for being a hotspot tourism Mediterranean region, raised concerns that it might have played role incubating pandemic during summer 2020. Methods To investigate this possibility, we conducted data-driven study examine potential influence passenger mobility and within utilizing various modes transportation. achieve this, integrated observational datasets into “epidemic Renormalization Group” modeling framework. Results By comparing models epidemiological data, found case Croatia neither maritime nor train transportation prominent propagating infection. Instead, our analysis highlighted both road airborne transmission virus. Discussion proposed framework serves test hypotheses concerning causation infectious waves, offering capacity rule out unrelated factors from consideration.

Language: Английский

Microfounded Tax Revenue Forecast Model with Heterogeneous Population and Genetic Algorithm Approach DOI
Ariel Alexi, Teddy Lazebnik, Labib Shami

et al.

Computational Economics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 63(5), P. 1705 - 1734

Published: April 21, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

22
Effect of Infection Hubs in District-Based Network Epidemic Spread Model DOI Creative Commons
Vladimir Khorev, Victor Kazantsev, Alexander E. Hramov

et al.

Applied Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(2), P. 1194 - 1194

Published: Jan. 16, 2023

A network model of epidemic spread accounting for inhomogeneous population district division is investigated. Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyze effects infection development in area, example, a city divided into several districts. The districts are characterized certain intensity contact inside and with inter-district communication that can be generally controlled authorities. Specifically, consider effect central district, which hub infection. We investigate how interaction strength influences city’s level development. obtained final infected amount rises an increasing degree connection hub. However, situation was not limited first outbreak but included subsequent waves appearance disappearance essentially depended on Our results suggest mechanism where stricter policy negatively affect waves.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Intervention policy influence on the effect of epidemiological crisis on industry-level production through input–output networks DOI
Teddy Lazebnik, Labib Shami, Svetlana Bunimovich‐Mendrazitsky

et al.

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 87, P. 101553 - 101553

Published: Feb. 25, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Inverse problem for parameters identification in a modified SIRD epidemic model using ensemble neural networks DOI Creative Commons

Marian Petrică,

I. Popescu

BioData Mining, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: July 18, 2023

In this paper, we propose a parameter identification methodology of the SIRD model, an extension classical SIR that considers deceased as separate category. addition, our model includes one which is ratio between real total number infected and were documented in official statistics. Due to many factors, like governmental decisions, several variants circulating, opening closing schools, typical assumption parameters stay constant for long periods time not realistic. Thus objective create method works short time. scope, approach estimation relying on previous 7 days data then use identified make predictions. To perform average ensemble neural networks. Each network constructed based database built by solving days, with random parameters. way, networks learn from solution model. Lastly get estimates Covid19 Romania illustrate predictions different time, 10 up 45 deaths. The main goal was apply analysis COVID-19 evolution Romania, but also exemplified other countries Hungary, Czech Republic Poland similar results. results are backed theorem guarantees can recover reported data. We believe be used general tool dealing term infectious diseases or compartmental models.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Multi-species prey–predator dynamics during a multi-strain pandemic DOI Creative Commons
Ariel Alexi, Ariel Rosenfeld, Teddy Lazebnik

et al.

Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 33(7)

Published: July 1, 2023

Small and large scale pandemics are a natural phenomenon repeatably appearing throughout history, causing ecological biological shifts in ecosystems wide range of their habitats. These usually start with single strain but shortly become multi-strain due to mutation process the pathogen epidemic. In this study, we propose novel eco-epidemiological model that captures multi-species prey-predator dynamics pandemic. The proposed extends combines Lotka-Volterra Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered epidemiological model. We investigate ecosystem's sensitivity stability during such pandemic through extensive simulation relying on both synthetic cases as well two real-world configurations. Our results aligned known findings, thus supporting adequacy realistically capturing complex properties dynamics.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Distribution Enhancement for Imbalanced Data with Generative Adversarial Network DOI
Yueqi Chen, Witold Pedrycz, Tingting Pan

et al.

Advanced Theory and Simulations, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(9)

Published: June 22, 2024

Abstract Tackling imbalanced problems encountered in real‐world applications poses a challenge at present. Oversampling is widely useful method for tabular data. However, most traditional oversampling methods generate samples by interpolation of minority (positive) class, failing to entirely capture the probability density distribution original In this paper, novel presented based on generative adversarial network (GAN) with originality introducing three strategies enhance positive called GAN‐E. The first strategy inject prior knowledge class into latent space GAN, improving sample emulation. second random noise containing both and generated stretch learning discriminator GAN. third one use multiple GANs learn comprehensive distributions multi‐scale data eliminate influence GAN generating aggregate samples. experimental results statistical tests obtained 18 commonly used datasets show that proposed comes better performance terms G‐mean, F‐measure, AUC accuracy than 14 other rebalanced methods.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric emergency department use: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022 DOI Creative Commons
Matteo Puntoni, Giuseppe Maglietta, Caterina Caminiti

et al.

Frontiers in Public Health, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12

Published: July 31, 2024

Background The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic is debated. Understanding consequences these measures may have on vulnerable populations including children and adolescents important. Methods This a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study involving 12 hospitals North Italian Emilia-Romagna Region, with NPI implementation as intervention event. 3 years preceding (in March 2020) constituted pre-pandemic phase. subsequent 2 were further subdivided into school closure phase (SC) mitigation (MM) milder restrictions. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was used to calculate PED Standardized Incidence Rate Ratios (SIRR) diagnostic categories exhibiting greatest frequency and/or variation. Results In 60 months there 765,215 visits. Compared rate, overall presentations dropped by 58 39% SC MM, respectively. “Symptoms, signs Ill-defined conditions,” “Injury poisoning” “Diseases Respiratory System” accounted for 74% reduction. A different pattern instead seen “Mental Disorders,” which exhibited smallest decrease SC, only category rose already at end SC. ITS confirmed strong (level change, IRR 0.17, 95%CI 0.12–0.27) significant increase in MM (slope 1.23, 1.13–1.33), sharpest decline (−94%) rise (+36%) observed category. Mental Disorders showed increasing trend 1% monthly over whole period exceeding levels MM. Females higher rates both Conclusion NPIs appear influenced attendance ways according categories, mirroring mechanisms action. These effects are beneficial some cases harmful others, establishing clear balance between pros cons difficult task public health decision makers. role appropriateness deserves investigation. pediatric mental disorders independent makes interventions addressing issues urgent.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Economical–epidemiological analysis of the coffee trees rust pandemic DOI Creative Commons
Teddy Lazebnik, Ariel Rosenfeld, Labib Shami

et al.

Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 34(11)

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Coffee leaf rust is a prevalent botanical disease that causes worldwide reduction in coffee supply and its quality, leading to immense economic losses. While several pandemic intervention policies (PIPs) for tackling this are commercially available, they seem provide only partial epidemiological relief farmers. In work, we develop high-resolution spatiotemporal economical-epidemiological model, extending the Susceptible-Infected-Removed captures pandemic's spread tree farms associated impact. Through extensive simulations case of Colombia, country consists mostly small-size second-largest producer world, our results show it economically impractical sustain any profit without directly pandemic. Furthermore, even hypothetical where farmers perfectly know their farm's state weather advance, pandemic-related efforts can amount limited roughly 4% on investment. more realistic case, expected result losses, indicating major disturbances market anticipated.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Individual variation affects outbreak magnitude and predictability in multi-pathogen model of pigeons visiting dairy farms DOI Creative Commons
Teddy Lazebnik, Orr Spiegel

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 499, P. 110925 - 110925

Published: Nov. 11, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

1
On strategies to help reduce contamination on public transit: a multilayer network approach DOI Creative Commons
Fernanda R. Gubert, Priscila Louise Leyser Santin, Mauro Fonseca

et al.

Applied Network Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: June 23, 2023

Abstract In times of a global pandemic, public transit can be crucial to spreading viruses, especially in big cities. Many works have shown that the human infection risk could extremely high due length exposure time, transmission routes, and structural characteristics during transportation, this result rapid spread infection. Vaccines are often part strategies reduce contagion; however, they scarce pandemic settings. Considering real-world large-scale traffic data, work proposes using time-varying multilayer networks identify main critical places prioritized interventions, such as vaccination campaigns, help contagion on transit. We exemplify our strategy different scenarios. First, when considering only bus stops priority points, determined by approach, we indicate focusing these locations reduces fewer doses than random vaccination. another experiment, demonstrate flexibility approach identifying other points interest, healthcare units case. Vaccination vital health also viable curb predetermined number doses. The proposed study is not limited strategies. It applies problems share similar properties, even several contexts, optimization or exploring interest gather insights from issues interest.

Language: Английский

Citations

2