A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(11), P. 989 - 1000

Published: Oct. 28, 2021

Language: Английский

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Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: cascading effects and telecoupling

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 17(1), P. 015004 - 015004

Published: Dec. 14, 2021

Abstract The Earth system and the human are intrinsically linked. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to climate crisis, which is causing unprecedented extreme events could trigger tipping elements. Physical social forces can lead points cascading effects via feedbacks telecoupling, but current generation of climate-economy models do not generally take account these interactions feedbacks. Here, we show importance interplay between societies systems in creating way they turn affect sustainability security. lack modeling links an underestimation societal risks as well how be harnessed moderate physical impacts. This calls for systematic development a better integration understanding at different spatial temporal scales, specifically those that enable decision-making reduce likelihood crossing local or global points.

Language: Английский

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Assessing human habitability and migration

Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 372(6548), P. 1279 - 1283

Published: June 17, 2021

Integrate global top-down and local bottom-up analyses

Language: Английский

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Cities and Settlements by the Sea

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 2163 - 2194

Published: June 22, 2023

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Language: Английский

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Migration Theory in Climate Mobility Research

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4

Published: May 10, 2022

The purpose of this article is to explore how migration theory invoked in empirical studies climate-related migration, and provide suggestions for engagement with the emerging field climate mobility. Theory critical understanding processes we observe social-ecological systems because it points a specific locus attention research, shapes research questions, guides quantitative model development, influences what researchers find, ultimately informs policies programs. Research into mobility has grown out early on environmental often developed isolation from broader theoretical developments community. As such, there risk that work may be inadequately informed by rich corpus contributed our who migrates; why they migrate; types employ; sustains streams; choose certain destinations over others. On other hand, are ways which environment enriching conceptual frameworks being employed understand particularly forced migration. This paper draws review 75 modeling efforts conducted diversity disciplines, covering various regions, using variety data sources methods assess used their research. goal suggest forward large growing domain.

Language: Английский

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Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century

Climate Risk Management, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 39, P. 100471 - 100471

Published: Dec. 21, 2022

Anthropogenic climate change is commonly characterized as a threat to human security. However, the extent which and under what conditions impacts responses may produce severe risks peace have seen less systematically assessment date. This essay provides conceptual discussion of entail how such might be considered severe, acknowledging that perceptions, values, social scale must grappled with in identification severity. Informed by available empirical research, then explores climate-related could become during this century. Three illustrative scenarios based on different assumptions about climate-driven related serve illustrate alternative warming adaptation trajectories will distinct implications for prospect future peace. The ends reflecting some research needs.

Language: Английский

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The limits of migration as adaptation. A conceptual approach towards the role of immobility, disconnectedness and simultaneous exposure in translocal livelihoods systems

Climate and Development, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 87 - 96

Published: March 1, 2023

Migration can strengthen adaptation to climate change. The potential of migration-as-adaptation builds on a world intensifying global mobility and connectedness the increasing possibility geographically spreading risks. But what if is impeded connectivity disrupted? And happens distant places face risks simultaneously due systemic character or multiplicity crises? This paper points fundamental gaps in research migration-as-adaptation, which largely neglects questions limits. It argues that an understanding limits needs address (1) migration as inherent feature social systems under stress, (2) unequal contested nature goals, (3) immobility, disconnectedness simultaneous exposure core mechanisms limit adaptive migration. proposes novel translocal-mobilities perspective multi-scalar, multi-local, relational intersectional dynamics migration-as-adaptation. formulates for adaptation. A comprehensive will help scientific community build more realistic scenarios change provide entry policies avoid reaching mitigate negative consequences.

Language: Английский

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Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: May 6, 2023

Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns depend on the amount of rise; future socioeconomic development; adaptation strategies pursued reduce exposure vulnerability rise. To explore feedbacks between these drivers, we combine projections, assumptions policies a spatially-explicit model ('CONCLUDE'). Using Mediterranean region as case study, find up 20 million rise-related migrants by 2100 if no are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration southern eastern countries compared northern countries. We show that can number factor 1.4 9, depending type pursued; implementation hard protection measures may even towards protected coastlines. Overall, robust across all scenarios, out-migration from narrow coastal strip in-migration widely spread urban settings. However, (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends developments drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making goes well beyond issues.

Language: Английский

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Translocal social resilience dimensions of migration as adaptation to environmental change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(3)

Published: Jan. 8, 2024

There is growing recognition of the potential migration to contribute climate-change adaptation. Yet, there limited evidence what degree, under conditions, for whom, and with which limitations this effectively case. We argue that results from a lack systematic incorporation sociospatiality—the nested, networked, intersectional nature migration-as-adaptation. Our central objective utilize translocal social-resilience approach overcome these gaps, identify processes structures shape social resilience livelihood systems, illustrate mechanisms behind multiplicity possible outcomes. Translocal constellations anchored in rural Thailand as well domestic international destinations Thai migrants serve illustrative empirical cases. Data were gathered through multisited mixed-methods research design. This paper highlights role distinct but interlinked situations operational logics at places origin destination, different positionalities resulting vulnerabilities, roles, commitments, practices individuals households regard resilience. Based on results, distills generalized typology five broad categories outcomes, explicitly considers sociospatiality. helps grasp complexity migration-as-adaptation avoid simplistic conclusions about benefits costs adaptation—both are necessary sound, evidence-based, policymaking.

Language: Английский

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Research priorities for climate mobility

One Earth, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(4), P. 589 - 607

Published: March 8, 2024

The escalating impacts of climate change on the movement and immobility people, coupled with false but influential narratives mobility, highlight an urgent need for nuanced synthetic research around mobility. Synthesis evidence gaps across Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report a to clarify understanding what conditions make human mobility effective adaptation option its outcomes, including simultaneous losses, damages, benefits. Priorities include integration development planning; involuntary vulnerability; gender; data cities; risk from responses maladaptation; public risk; transboundary, compound, cascading risks; nature-based approaches; planned retreat, relocation, heritage. Cutting these priorities, modalities better position as type process, praxis. Policies practices reflect diverse needs, experiences emphasizing capability, choice, freedom movement.

Language: Английский

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