Future worldwide coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic predictions by Gaidai multivariate risk evaluation method

Analytical Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(7-8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

Accurate estimation of pandemic likelihood in every US state interest and at any time. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious illness with a high potential for global dissemination low rates fatality morbidity, placing some strains on national public health systems. This research intends to benchmark novel technique, that enables hazard assessment, based available clinical data, dynamically observed patient numbers while taking into account pertinent territorial temporal mapping. Multicentre, population-based, biostatistical strategies have been utilized process raw/unfiltered medical survey data. The expansion extreme value statistics from the univariate bivariate situation meets numerous challenges. First, types theorem cannot be directly extended (2D) case,-not mention challenges system dimensionality higher than 2D. Assessing outbreak risks future outbreaks nation/region interest. Existing bio-statistical approaches do not always benefits effectively handling large regional cross-correlation between various observations. These methods deal observations multi-regional phenomena. Apply contemporary, statistical/reliability techniques current study outlines bio-system assessment technique particularly suited environmental, bio, systems, over representative period. With use Gaidai multivariate approach, epidemic spatiotemporal may properly assessed. Based approach applied variety applications. study's primary finding was outbreaks, along matching confidence range. Future COVID-19/severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV2) examined study; however, COVID-19/SARS-COV2 infection transmission mechanisms discussed.

Language: Английский

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Gaidai risks evaluation method for lifetime assessment for offshore floating wind turbine gearbox

Journal of Nondestructive Evaluation Diagnostics and Prognostics of Engineering Systems, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(2)

Published: Aug. 30, 2024

Abstract Renewable clean energy in some cases may be viewed as an alternative to limited fossil resources. Offshore floating wind turbines (FWTs) are among the most attractive green alternatives. However, FWTs, particular their essential components, sustain structural damages from cyclic loads brought on by torque, bending, longitudinal loadings, well twisting moments. Multibody simulation tool SIMPACK was utilized assess bending moments and internal forces occurring within FWT drivetrain during its field operation. The novel risk damage evaluation method advocated current study is intended serve contemporary design, enabling accurate assessments of lifespan distribution, given situ environmental/field conditions. approach described analyze complex multidimensional sustainable systems, subjected excessive stressors service life. Contemporary approaches, dealing with systems not always well-suited for handling dynamic system's high dimensionality, aggravated nonlinear cross-correlations between nonstationary loadings. advocates a general-purpose lifetime assessment methodology, having wide area potential engineering design applications, offshore wind/wave renewable systems. Key advantages methodology lie robust ability risks environmental virtually unlimited number system components (dimensions), along further incorporate real time. Note that author's knowledge, there no comparable methods can deal utilizing raw/unfiltered simulated/measured datasets, beyond one or two-dimensional systems—except computationally expensive direct Monte Carlo (MC) simulations.

Language: Английский

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Limit hypersurface state-of-the-art damage assessment approach for a galloping energy harvester, accounting for memory effects

Journal of Vibration and Control, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 13, 2024

Energy harvesters (i.e., EH) constituting nowadays an essential part of renewable energy engineering; hence, apart from numerical modeling, experimental studies are necessary, reliable input for durable design and structural safety assessments. In the current study, galloping EH’s performance was analyzed, utilizing extensive laboratory wind-tunnel tests, conducted under realistic windspeed conditions. The novel multivariate risks assessment methodology, presented in study is particularly feasible multi-dimensional nonlinear EH dynamic systems, that have been either directly Monte Carlo MC) numerically simulated or physically measured over a representative temporal lapse, providing piecewise ergodic time series. As shown this analysis, suggested methodology accurately enables accurate predictions system’s failure/hazard damage risks, based on laboratory-measured dynamics. Furthermore, inter-correlations between various systems’ critical components not always easily handled by classic risk techniques, when dealing with high-dimensional raw primary goal validation benchmarking which can extract pertinent information, contained within dynamics, lab-recorded histories. conclusion, hypersurface generic, additional capability to accurately, yet efficiently predict damage/failure variety multidimensional systems. Relatively narrow confidence bands reported forecasted failure levels, indicating both robustness setup, as well practical virtues advocated Gaidai methodology. Note being mathematically exact does rely pre-assumptions it general purpose.

Language: Английский

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Multivariate risk assessment for offshore structures by Gaidai risk evaluation method under an accumulation of fatigue damage, utilizing novel deconvolution scheme

Structures, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 70, P. 107691 - 107691

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Onboard multivariate hazard assessment for UIKKU chemical tanker by Gaidai reliability method

Deleted Journal, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 1(1)

Published: Oct. 7, 2024

The current study outlines a novel multimodal structural reliability methodology, suitable for naval dynamic systems, that are either numerically simulated, or directly physically measured. Cross-correlations between the system's principal/key dimensions/components, along with high dimensionality of complex not easily addressed by existing methods, mostly univariate bivariate. objective this had been to apply reliability/hazard assessment methodology UIKKU chemical tanker onboard measurements demonstrate efficiency proposed methodology. Current investigation utilized measured ice loadings, exerted on hull and propulsion devices during its Arctic voyage. Onboard data recordings then were interpreted gain knowledge about load levels. instrumented so ice-induced loads/stresses vessel shell plating monitored at various key locations, both in longitudinal as well vertical directions, vessel's hull. Longitudinal bending stresses several locations accelerations analyze global behaviour when colliding e.g., moderately heavy ridges. In addition onboard, Russian partners icebreaker Capitan Dranitsyn real-time measure strains/stresses within belt grillage, located bow. Icebreaker acted escort whole Obtained results may be harmonize IACS Polar ship rules. study, measuring system results, voyage have briefly represented.

Language: Английский

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